Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, September 6, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Under the total is 10-1-2 (+9.00 units) in Spencer Arrighetti’s last 13 road day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-KC (o/u at 9.5)
Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 422-476 but for +92.62 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+141 at CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (+134 at NYM), ATHLETICS (+167 at SEA)
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 150-108-17 (58.1%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-COL (o/u at 11)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, with a month left, they are now 141-212 start for -27.29 units (-7.7% ROI) after losing about 37 units over the 2-1/2 months. This angle has finally gone deep into the red for the season, it’s usual territory, and continues to fall fast!
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI +119 (vs MIL)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 92-53 for -25.86 units, ROI -17.8%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-198 vs LAA), SEATTLE (-205 vs ATH), LA DODGERS (-205 vs WSH)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 36-25 start for -20.56 units, and an ROI of -33.7%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (-205 vs ATH), LA DODGERS (-205 vs WSH)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 287-354 for -30.72 units, and comes off a rough three-week stretch, giving back over 20 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-110 at PHI), COLORADO (+113 vs STL), TAMPA BAY (-110 at TEX), SAN DIEGO (-105 vs NYY)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -106 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 242-166 for +45.44 units, an ROI of +11.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-123 at KC), HOUSTON (-112 vs AZ)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle to extend winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 77-98 for -20.19 units and a solid ROI of -11.5%.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+168 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 151-171 for +2.78 units. However, it has lost -10.48 units over the last two months.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+112 vs BOS), MIAMI (+124 vs CHC), WASHINGTON (+168 at LAD)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 484-504, but for +36.57 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+112 vs BOS), MIAMI (+124 vs CHC), SEATTLE (-205 vs ATH), WASHINGTON (+168 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 422-476 but for +92.62 units and an ROI of 10.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+141 at CLE), SAN FRANCISCO (+134 at NYM), ATHLETICS (+167 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 172-71 for +13.48 units and an ROI of 6.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-205 vs ATH)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 764-875 record but for +21.79 units and an ROI of 1.3% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-143 at CIN)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2228-2104 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.92 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+134 at NYM), COLORADO (+113 vs STL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,297-2,878 (44.4%) for -267.47 units and a -5.2% ROI since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-110 at PHI)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 682-572 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +18.02 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-171 vs DET)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 115-167 SU (-25.58 units, ROI: -9.1%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+119 vs MIL)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as DAY game intraleague underdogs/pick em’s with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 150-108-17 (58.1%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-COL (o/u at 11)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 338-347 run (+15.21 units, ROI: 2.2%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): BALTIMORE (+112 vs BOS)
Winning Streak Betting System #1:
Teams that have won their last three games and are road favorites versus an opponent with a losing record have gone 113-43 (+36.44 units, ROI: 23.4%) in their last 156 tries.
System Match (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-135 at BAL), TORONTO (-122 at KC), CHICAGO CUBS (-150 at MIA)
Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 37-76 (-11.16 units, ROI: -9.9%) in their last 113 tries.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (+167 at SEA)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 604-592 for +23.75 units, good for +2% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MIAMI +124 (+27), BALTIMORE +112 (+26), ATHLETICS +167 (+24), PHILADELPHIA -110 (+22), KANSAS CITY +102 (+18), WASHINGTON +168 (+11), SAN DIEGO -105 (+11)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: MILWAUKEE -143 (+50), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -150 (+21), NY METS -162 (+20), HOUSTON -112 (+12)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) MILWAUKEE (88-55) at (902) CINCINNATI (68-74)
Trend: Brady Singer’s teams are 22-8 (+14.29 units) in his last 30 home day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+119 vs MIL)
(907) SAN FRANCISCO (59-84) at (908) NEW YORK-NL (64-78)
Trend: SF is 32-51 (-6.66 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend: NYM is 9-4 (+4.52 units) at home with starter Christian Scott in his career
Trends Match (PLAY): NY METS (-162 vs SF)
(911) WASHINGTON (67-77) at (912) LOS ANGELES-NL (85-57)
Trend: LAD is 25-46 (-26.45 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs WSH)
(913) BOSTON (78-65) at (914) BALTIMORE (69-74)
Trend: BOS is 20-32 (-11.44 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (-1.5 at BAL)
(917) TORONTO (72-71) at (918) KANSAS CITY (63-80)
Trend: Under the total is 10-1-2 (+9.00 units) in Spencer Arrighetti’s last 13 road day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-KC (o/u at 9.5)
(921) ATHLETICS (57-86) at (922) SEATTLE (66-77)
Trend: SEA is 42-73 (-22.81 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs ATH)
Trend: SEA is 28-7 (+18.34 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-205 vs ATH)
(923) MINNESOTA (68-74) at (924) CHICAGO-AL (74-68)
Trend: MIN is 5-8 (-3.78 units) in September/October road starts with Bailey Ober in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+124 at CWS)
(925) LOS ANGELES-AL (54-88) at (926) PITTSBURGH (70-73)
Trend: Over the total is 43-26-2 (+14.40 units) in PIT home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-PIT (o/u at 7)
(929) NEW YORK-AL (81-61) at (930) SAN DIEGO (74-68)
Trend: Under the total is 22-10-1 (+11.70 units) when starter Michael King is an underdog since the start of the 2020 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-SD (o/u at 7)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #33: Milwaukee at Cincinnati, Fri 9/4-Sun 9/6
Trend: MILWAUKEE is on an extended 39-15 (72.2%, +20.24 units) run versus Cincinnati in head-to-head play.
– The ROI on this trend is 37.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-143 at CIN)
Series #37: Tampa Bay at Texas, Thu 9/3-Sun 9/6
Trend: TEXAS is on a very profitable 15-5 (75%, +11.43 units) run versus Tampa Bay
– The ROI on this trend is 57.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-110 vs TB)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-199 vs LAA), CLEVELAND (-171 vs DET)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-199 vs LAA), ARIZONA (-108 at HOU), NY YANKEES (-114 at SD)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, September 7)
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