The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, August 21, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 9-22 (-12.17 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+109 vs NYM)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 338-362 but for +101.01 units and an ROI of 14.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+104 at KC), MILWAUKEE (+109 at CHC)

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 346-174 (66.5%) for +45.81 units and an ROI of 8.8%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-194 vs SF), NY YANKEES (-149 vs BOS)

BALTIMORE Letdown in next game after series vs. BOS: 11-23 (32.4%) -12.03 units, ROI: -35.4%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-121 vs HOU)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 177-112 for +45.36 units, and an ROI of 15.7%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (-121 at MIN), BOSTON (+122 at NYY)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 52-49 for -9.26 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -9.2% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): WASHINGTON (+109 vs NYM)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 136-185 for -48.08 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 33-53 for -17.53 units since All-Star break.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-103 vs STL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 292-170 for +18.11 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +3.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-133 vs MIL), LA DODGERS (-233 at COL), ST LOUIS (-117 at TB)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 122-216 for -25.28 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -7.5%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+187 vs LAD)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 93-47 for -12.12 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we are again!
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-194 vs SF)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a strong start, 113-38 for +17.21 units, an ROI of 11.4%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-233 at COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 73-30 for +6.12 units. Still, after a 3-3 week-and-a-half for -3.19 units, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-194 vs SF)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 348-364 for +37.92 units, ROI +5.3%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+113 at CHC), HOUSTON (-101 at BAL), BOSTON (+122 at NYY), TAMPA BAY (-103 vs STL)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 79-75, -0.30 units.
System Matches (FADE): 3+ games – CHICAGO CUBS (-133 vs MIL), BALTIMORE (-121 vs HOU), NY YANKEES (-149 vs BOS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, ST LOUIS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-COL

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 413-322 for +47.32 units and an ROI of 6.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-149 vs BOS), BALTIMORE (-121 vs HOU)

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 378-393 but for +40.68 units and an ROI of 5.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+109 at CHC)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 198-145 for +20.96 units and an ROI of 6.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-117 at TB)

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 638-817 but for +47.46 units and an ROI of 3.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+104 at KC), MILWAUKEE (+109 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+158 at SD)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 338-362 but for +101.01 units and an ROI of 14.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+104 at KC), MILWAUKEE (+109 at CHC)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 121-159 for -35.87 units and an ROI of -12.8% over the last three seasons
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-103 vs STL)

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 338-293 but for -78.32 units and an ROI of -12.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-121 vs HOU), NY YANKEES (-149 vs BOS)

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 143-56 for +16.54 units and an ROI of 8.3% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-194 vs SF)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 599-673 record but for +50.01 units and an ROI of 3.9% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+109 at CHC), LA DODGERS (-233 at COL), NY METS (-132 at WSH), SAN FRANCISCO (+158 at SD)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1907-2417 (44.1%) for -214.95 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+158 at SD), HOUSTON (-101 at BAL), ST LOUIS (-117 at TB)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3866-3384 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -514.40 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+187 vs LAD), SAN DIEGO (-194 vs SF), WASHINGTON (+109 vs NYM), NY YANKEES (-149 vs BOS)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 346-174 (66.5%) for +45.81 units and an ROI of 8.8%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-194 vs SF), NY YANKEES (-149 vs BOS)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 123-126 (-51.63 units, ROI: -20.7%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-149 vs BOS)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN FRANCISCO +158 (+15 diff)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LA DODGERS -233 (+50 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIL-CHC OVER 6.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATH-MIN UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), SF-SD UNDER 8 (-0.8)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(951) MILWAUKEE (79-48) at (952) CHICAGO-NL (73-54)
Trend: MIL is 25-13 (+13.74 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+109 at CHC)

Trend: CHC is 18-4 (+11.87 units) as a favorite versus NL opponents with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-133 vs MIL)

(953) LOS ANGELES-NL (72-55) at (954) COLORADO (37-90)
Trend: LAD is 29-31 (-17.69 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-233 at COL)

Trend: COL is 5-29 (-21.11 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+187 vs LAD)

(955) NEW YORK-NL (67-59) at (956) WASHINGTON (51-75)
Trend: WSH is 25-39 (-12.64 units) in home games this season
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 9-22 (-12.17 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
Trends Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+109 vs NYM)

Trend: Under the total is 22-13-1 (+7.70 units) when WSH faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-WSH (o/u at 8.5)

(959) ATHLETICS (58-70) at (960) MINNESOTA (58-68)
Trend: MIN has not been good in day games this season (25-33 record, -15.49 units)
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-101 vs ATH)

(961) TEXAS (63-65) at (962) KANSAS CITY (65-62)
Trend: Under the total is 39-26 (+10.40 units) when KC is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-KC (o/u at 9)

(963) HOUSTON (69-58) at (964) BALTIMORE (59-67)
Trend: HOU has been a solid bet as a ML underdog this season (19-14 record, +10.34 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-101 at BAL)

(967) ST LOUIS (63-65) at (968) TAMPA BAY (61-66)
Trend: TB is 24-40 (-19.65 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs STL)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

BALTIMORE
Letdown after series vs. BOSTON: 11-23 (32.4%) -12.03 units, ROI: -35.4%
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-121 vs HOU)

NY YANKEES
Momentum after series vs. TAMPA BAY: 25-10 (71.4%) +10.11 units, ROI: 28.9%
Trend Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-149 vs BOS)

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