Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, October 1, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 96-85 on run lines (+25.71 units, ROI: 14.2%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs PHI)
Trend: Under the total is 19-11-3 (+6.90 units) when ATL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Overall MLB Postseason Trends
Coming off wins/losses
Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce back options, going 65-67 SU (-19.58 units, ROI: -14.8%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-108 vs PHI)
Series wins status
Home field has also proven somewhat advantageous in series’ that are even, as hosts in this situation have gone 96-85 on run lines (+25.71 units, ROI: 14.2%) since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs PHI)
Trends based upon regular season records
In the last five playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 50-52 SU (+9 units, ROI: 8.8%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-111 at ATL)
Wild Card Round Angles
2022 was the first season in which the wild card round expanded to a 3-game series
– Wild Card road favorites in low-totaled games (o/u < 8) are 9-0 SU (+9.00 units, ROI: 100%) since 2014.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-111 at ATL)
– Wildcard totals have gone 41-28-1 Under since 2015, with Under bettors gaining a return of +12.39 units, or an ROI of 18%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. – Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (2-3, -0.73 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ATLANTA (-108 vs PHI)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 183-98 SU (+45.37 units, ROI: 16.1%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ATLANTA vs PHI (-108 CURRENTLY)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 684-686 for +10.47 units, good for +0.8% ROI.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (10 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: PHILADELPHIA -111 (+15 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(909) PHILADELPHIA (89-75) at (910) ATLANTA (95-69)
Trend: PHI is 48-64 (-21.34 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-1.5 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 19-11-3 (+6.90 units) when ATL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves
Trend: Over the total is 5-1-2 (83.3%, +3.90 units) in the Phillies-Braves rivalry at Truist Park this season
– The ROI on this trend is 65%
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PHI-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 UNITS and an ROI of -15.5% (5-3, +1.23 units in 2026).
System Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-111 at ATL)
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