Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, September 11, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: HOU is 18-4 (+12.89 units) during the day with Cristian Javier in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+134 at TOR)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 345-376 but for +96.42 units and an ROI of 13.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+109 at PHI)
* Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 324-288 (52.9%) for +22.70 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-150 vs DET)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 60-60 for -16.13 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -13.4% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TORONTO (-164 vs HOU)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 163-208 for -46.99 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.7%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (-257 vs COL), KANSAS CITY (+119 at CLE), BALTIMORE (-123 vs PIT)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 322-196 for +13.98 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +2.7%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-144 vs KC)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 132-244 for -36.00 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.6%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+205 at SD)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a strong start, 123-42 for +17.61 units, an ROI of +10.7%.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-257 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 77-35 for +0.19 units. September is typically a month where we see more of these plays qualifying daily due to favorite overpricing.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (-257 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, bringing the season record to 406-430 for +46.13 units, ROI +5.5%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+134 at TOR), KANSAS CITY (+119 at CLE), DETROIT (+123 at NYY)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are unusually positive, 186-187 for +5.42 units (ROI 1.5%).
System Match (FADE): 2-games – LA ANGELS (+129 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 175-231 for -16.79 units, an ROI of -4.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+101 at BAL), NY METS (+109 at PHI), COLORADO (+205 at SD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 219-175 for +1.99 units (ROI 0.5%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-132 vs NYM), SEATTLE (-158 vs LAA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:00 AM ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): WASHINGTON
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a 3-game winning streak are 424-336 for +38.39 units and an ROI of 5.1% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-158 vs LAA)
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 395-402 but for +49.33 units and an ROI of 6.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+101 at BAL), NY METS (+109 at PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 655-840 but for +46.79 units and an ROI of 3.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+101 at BAL), HOUSTON (+134 at TOR), DETROIT (+123 at NYY), NY METS (+109 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (+119 at CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 345-376 but for +96.42 units and an ROI of 13.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+109 at PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 614-696 record but for +41.58 units and an ROI of 3.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+101 at BAL), WASHINGTON (-101 at MIA), NY METS (+109 at PHI)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 426-407 (51.1%) for +23.09 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-150 vs DET)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1953-1843 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -248.41 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+123 at NYY), PHILADELPHIA (-132 vs NYM)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1944-2461 (44.1%) for -219.38 units and an ROI of -5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+101 at BAL), COLORADO (+205 at SD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored 5 runs or more are winning more often than not at 3936-3436 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -512.69 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-121 vs WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-132 vs NYM)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 324-288 (52.9%) for +22.70 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-150 vs DET)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 255-261 run (+18.66 units, ROI: 4.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+101 at BAL), NY METS (+109 at PHI)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BALTIMORE -123 (+17 diff), CLEVELAND -144 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: PIT-BAL UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) WASHINGTON (60-85) at (902) MIAMI (67-79)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore is 10-22 (-11.08 units) vs NL East opponents in his career
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-101 at MIA)
(903) NEW YORK-NL (76-70) at (904) PHILADELPHIA (86-60)
Trend: NYM is 31-43 (-19.50 units) in road games this season
Trend: NYM is 5-10 (-5.97 units) on the road within line range -129 to +129 with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (FADE): NY METS (+109 at PHI)
(907) TAMPA BAY (72-73) at (908) CHICAGO-AL (56-90)
Trend: CWS is 41-22 (+15.53 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+1.5 vs TB)
(909) HOUSTON (79-67) at (910) TORONTO (83-62)
Trend: HOU is 18-4 (+12.89 units) during the day with Cristian Javier in last three seasons
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 13-23 (-24.03 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last six seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+134 at TOR)
(911) DETROIT (84-62) at (912) NEW YORK-AL (80-65)
Trend: Over the total is 51-36-2 (+11.40 units) in Tigers’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DET-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
(915) LOS ANGELES-AL (69-77) at (916) SEATTLE (78-68)
Trend: LAA is 53-51 (+13.17 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+129 at SEA)
(917) PITTSBURGH (64-82) at (918) BALTIMORE (68-77)
Trend: PIT is 22-49 (-22.23 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+101 at BAL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next few tomorrow, September 12)
