The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, July 22, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: PHI is 17-1 (+15.20 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-204 vs. BOS)

* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 242-121 for +48.71 units when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-232 vs. ATH), CHICAGO CUBS (-248 vs. KC), HOUSTON (-121 at AZ), MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA)

Trend: Under the total is 26-13-2 (+11.70 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-MIA (o/u at 8)

* Teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 37-19 (+19.58 units, ROI: 35%) in the last 56 tries to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 132-83 for +36.94 units, and an ROI of 17.2%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is proving to be a good foundational angle to follow, as prices aren’t typically that high.
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+108 vs. DET)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 40-39 for -8.97 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -11.4% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): SEATTLE (-126 vs. MIL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 109-140 for -34.34 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -13.8%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO (+104 at MIA), ST LOUIS (-163 at COL), CLEVELAND (-148 vs. BAL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 242-121 for +48.71 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.4%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (-232 vs. ATH), CHICAGO CUBS (-248 vs. KC), HOUSTON (-121 at AZ), MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 95-191 for -43.27 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.1%! This is the double whammy scenario to FADE.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+113 vs. CIN), COLORADO (+133 vs. STL)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams remain off to an uncustomary good start, 72-30 for +4.25 units. This remains a winning angle, although we are still very close to going red.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-232 vs. ATH), CHICAGO CUBS (-248 vs. KC)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790 but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 275-284 for +26.69 units, ROI +4.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+104 at MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+186 at TB), PITTSBURGH (+108 vs. DET), BOSTON (+165 at PHI), MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA), MINNESOTA (+184 at LAD)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. This year, they are 130-138 for -6.45 units (ROI -2.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 68-65, -0.26 units.
System Match (FADE): 2 games – KANSAS CITY (+198 at CHC)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and after a huge two-week stretch of 26-14 for +12.67 units, it is now 151-112 for +12.24 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-121 vs. NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+186 at TB), MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of the All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 UNITS and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO, ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2 1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.

System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in divisional games since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and an ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the underdogs in these divisional games. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and an ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 UNITS and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 UNITS and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
— Majority handle bettors in JULY games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and an ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season and a half since opening day 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-ATL

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 405-388 (51.1%) for +23.28 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.9%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-250 vs. KC)

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road; if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,859-1,766 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.66 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-144 vs. BAL), WASHINGTON (+117 vs. CIN), ATLANTA (-119 vs. SF), KANSAS CITY (+200 at CHC)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,849-2,352 (44%) for -212.46 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-132 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+103 at MIA), BOSTON (+165 at PHI), NY YANKEES (+100 at TOR), ATHLETICS (+182 at TEX), MINNESOTA (+182 at LAD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,758-3,307 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -526.25 units and an ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-144 vs. BAL), WASHINGTON (+117 vs. CIN), NY METS (-176 vs. LAA), ATLANTA (-119 vs. SF), TEXAS (-225 vs. ATH), LA DODGERS (-226 vs. MIN)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 553-466 (54.2%) record in the next game when at home in that same period. The profit there is +22.64 units, for an ROI of 2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+108 vs. DET), COLORADO (+129 vs. STL), SEATTLE (-126 vs. MIL)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 337-170 (66.5%) for +44.34 units and an ROI of 8.7%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-226 vs. MIN)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 237-248 run (+15.05 units, ROI: 3.1%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-102 at ATL)

Winning Streak Betting System #5:
Teams that have won their last four games but are playing on the road as large underdogs (+140 or more) have struggled, going 30-62 (-8.19 units, ROI: -8.9%) in their last 92 tries.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+186 at TB)

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine or more games in a row, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 37-19 (+19.58 units, ROI: 35%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (+104 at SEA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +186 (+37 diff), MINNESOTA +184 (+26), KANSAS CITY +198 (+24)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ST. LOUIS -163 (+33 diff), CINCINNATI -137 (+30),

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-CLE OVER 8 (+1.0), CIN-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.9)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-COL UNDER 12 (-0.7), SF-ATL UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) SAN DIEGO (55-45) at (952) MIAMI (46-53)
Trend: Under the total is 26-13-2 (+11.70 units) when SD is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-MIA (o/u at 8)

(955) SAN FRANCISCO (52-49) at (956) ATLANTA (44-55)
Trend: Over the total is 18-10-1 (+7.00 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-ATL (o/u at 9.5)

(957) ST. LOUIS (52-49) at (958) COLORADO (24-76)
Trend: Under the total is 13-2-1 (+10.70 units) when Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): STL-COL (*if STL falls into this line range, -157 currently*)

(959) BALTIMORE (44-55) at (960) CLEVELAND (49-50)
Trend: Under the total is 32-18-2 (+12.20 units) in Orioles road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-CLE (o/u at 8)

(961) NEW YORK-AL (55-45) at (962) TORONTO (59-41)
Trend: NYY is 2-7 (-4.47 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (+100 at TOR)

(963) CHICAGO-AL (36-65) at (964) TAMPA BAY (52-49)
Trend: Under the total is 39-24-4 (+12.60 units) when TB is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-TB (o/u at 8)

(965) ATHLETICS (42-60) at (966) TEXAS (51-50)
Trend: Under the total is 34-15 (+17.50 units) in Rangers home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: TEX is 10-0 (+10.00 units) in the last 10 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-225 vs. ATH)

(967) DETROIT (60-41) at (968) PITTSBURGH (40-61)
Trend: PIT is 9-22 (-9.26 units) vs. teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+108 vs. DET)

(969) BOSTON (54-48) at (970) PHILADELPHIA (57-43)
Trend: PHI is 17-1 (+15.20 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of 2024 season
Trend: PHI is 20-4 (+12.93 units) in favorite line range of -148 or higher with starter Cristopher Sanchez since start of 2024 season
Trends Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-204 vs. BOS)

(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (49-51) at (972) NEW YORK-NL (57-44)
Trend: NYM is 35-16 (+10.10 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-176 vs. LAA)

(973) KANSAS CITY (49-52) at (974) CHICAGO-NL (59-41)
Trend: Matthew Boyd is 8-1 (+5.95 units) in home night games since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-250 vs. KC)

(975) HOUSTON (58-42) at (976) ARIZONA (50-51)
Trend: AZ is 21-9 (+5.14 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (+1.5 vs. HOU)

(977) MILWAUKEE (60-40) at (978) SEATTLE (53-47)
Trend: SEA is 22-40 (-18.91 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs. MIL)

(979) MINNESOTA (48-52) at (980) LOS ANGELES-NL (59-42)
Trend: Under the total is 12-4 (+7.45 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-LAD (o/u at 8.5)

Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Mon 7/21-Wed 7/23
Trend: Favorites are just 24-40 (37.5%, -32.39 units) in the last 64 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
— The ROI on this trend is -50.6%
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-121 vs. NYY)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Thursday, July 24)

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