The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, July 29, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (25-10 record, +16.43 units) since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+108 at MIL)

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proved to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 339-171 (66.5%) for +44.40 units and an ROI of 8.7%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-132 vs. TOR)

* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 255-128 for +50.31 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.1%.
System Match (PLAY): ST. LOUIS (-168 vs. MIA)

Trend: Under the total is 13-2-1 (+10.70 units) when Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-KC (o/u at 9.5)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 141-88 for +40.92 units, and an ROI of 17.9%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-132 vs. TOR)

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 41-39 for -7.78 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -9.7% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen hast to be accounted for in games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-199 vs. TB), KANSAS CITY (-126 vs. ATL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 117-152 for -37.91 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.1%. Fade these qualifiers almost anytime they come up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-217 vs. COL), TAMPA BAY (+161 at NYY), MIAMI (+138 at STL), HOUSTON (-145 vs. WSH), TEXAS (+108 at LAA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 255-128 for +50.31 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.1%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Match (PLAY): ST. LOUIS (-168 vs. MIA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 102-194 for -33.50 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.3%! This is the double-whammy scenario to fade.
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+175 at CLE), ATHLETICS (-106 vs. SEA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and before that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Rating played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are well in the black with a season record of 298-299 for +43.27 units, ROI +7.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 2 (+104 vs. TOR), TAMPA BAY (+161 at NYY), CINCINNATI (+129 vs. LAD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+148 vs. PHI), ATLANTA (+104 at KC), TEXAS (+108 at LAA), SAN DIEGO (+104 vs. NYM), PITTSBURGH (+140 at SF)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen rating that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 142-151 for -5.05 units (ROI -1.7%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-69, +2.08 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2 games – LA ANGELS (-132 vs. TEX)
3 games – WASHINGTON (+119 at HOU)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 160-121 for +12.50 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-132 vs. TOR), SAN DIEGO (+104 vs. NYM), PITTSBURGH (+140 at SF)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.

In an article published on the VSiN.com website before opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): TORONTO GAME 1, CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY, TEXAS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 UNITS and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, DETROIT, PHILADELPHIA, KANSAS CITY, HOUSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
— Majority handle bettors in JULY games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and an ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the 2024 season, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): TOR-BAL GAME 2, LAD-CIN, TEX-LAA

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based on noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game. 

“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine or more runs in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 1,870-1,776 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -250.17 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-132 vs.TOR), ATLANTA (+104 at KC)

Road teams that didn’t score well in the last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1,866-2,368 (44.1%) for -208.27 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA (+118 at DET), PHILADELPHIA (-181 at CWS), MIAMI (+138 at STL), WASHINGTON (+119 at HOU)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3,780-3,319 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -519.16 units and an ROI of -7.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-132 vs.TOR), DETROIT (-144 vs.AZ), CLEVELAND (-217 vs.COL), KANSAS CITY (-126 vs.ATL), MINNESOTA (-101 vs.BOS), MILWAUKEE (-129 vs.CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+148 vs.PHI), ST. LOUIS (-168 vs.MIA), LA ANGELS (-132 vs.TEX), SAN DIEGO (+104 vs.NYM), SAN FRANCISCO (-172 vs.PIT)

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 557-468 (54.3%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +23.92 units, for an ROI of 2.3%.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-194 vs.TB)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proved to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 339-171 (66.5%) for +44.40 units and an ROI of 8.7%.
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE GAME 1 (-132 vs.TOR)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 241-248 run (+19.54 units, ROI: 4%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-172 vs.PIT)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO +104 (+22 diff), BALTIMORE +108 (+21), MINNESOTA -101 (+19)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KANSAS CITY -126 (+25 diff), SEATTLE -115 (+22), PHILADELPHIA -181 (+19)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: MIA-STL OVER 7.5 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-SD UNDER 8.5 (-0.8), ATL-KC UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), TOR-BAL GAME 2 UNDER 10 (-0.5), TEX-LAA UNDER 9 (-0.5), SEA-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) LOS ANGELES-NL (62-45) at (902) CINCINNATI (56-51)
Trend: CIN is 24-14 (+6.76 units) at home with Nick Lodolo in his career
Trend: Nick Lodolo is 19-12 (+8.75 units) vs. teams with a winning record in his career
Trends Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+129 vs. LAD)

(903) CHICAGO-NL (62-44) at (904) MILWAUKEE (63-43)
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (25-10 record, +16.43 units) since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+108 at MIL)

(905) MIAMI (50-55) at (906) ST. LOUIS (55-53)
Trend: MIA is the most profitable team to bet as a ML underdog this season (38-41 record, +14.70 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+138 at STL)

(907) NEW YORK-NL (62-45) at (908) SAN DIEGO (58-49)
Trend: Under the total is 24-11 (+11.90 units) when the Padres face left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYM-SD (o/u at 8.5)

(909) PITTSBURGH (45-62) at (910) SAN FRANCISCO (54-53)
Trend: Under the total is 44-28-2 (+13.20 units) when the Giants are a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): PIT-SF (o/u at 8)
Trend: Justin Verlander is 4-14 (-20.72 units) as a favorite within the line range of -165 to -190 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-172 vs. PIT)

(911) TORONTO (63-44) at (912) BALTIMORE (48-58) (DH Game #1)
Trend: Under the total is 16-3-2 (+12.75 units) when Charlie Morton is a -134 favorite or higher since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-BAL GAME 1 (o/u at 10.5)

(913) TORONTO (63-44) at (914) BALTIMORE (48-58) (DH Game #2)
Trend: Under the total is 26-14-3 (+10.60 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-BAL GAME 2 (o/u at 10.5)

(915) TAMPA BAY (54-53) at (916) NEW YORK-AL (57-49)
Trend: Under the total is 39-23-4 (+13.70 units) in Rays night games this season
Trend: Under the total is 32-20 (+10.00 units) in Yankees home games this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-NYY (o/u at 8.5)

(919) TEXAS (56-51) at (920) LOS ANGELES-AL (52-55)
Trend: Patrick Corbin is 7-12 (-4.84 units) as a night underdog in the line range of -105 to +120 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+108 at LAA)
Trend: Yusei Kikuchi is 20-20 (-9.74 units) as a night home favorite in his career
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-132 vs. TEX)

(921) SEATTLE (57-50) at (922) ATHLETICS (46-63)
Trend: Luis Severino is 14-35 (-18.19 units) as an underdog in the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-106 vs. SEA)

(923) COLORADO (28-78) at (924) CLEVELAND (52-54)
Trend: COL is 3-24 (-18.90 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+175 at CLE)

(927) PHILADELPHIA (60-46) at (928) CHICAGO-AL (39-68)
Trend: Under the total is 33-18-3 (+13.20 units) in Phillies road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CWS (o/u at 9)

(929) ATLANTA (45-60) at (930) KANSAS CITY (52-55)
Trend: ATL is the worst team to bet on the road this season (19-34 record, -25.55 units)
Trend: Erick Fedde was 2-13 (-10.81 units) as a road underdog with STL

Trends Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+104 at KC)
Trend: Under the total is 13-2-1 (+10.70 units) when Erick Fedde is within -155 to +148 line range in night games since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-KC (o/u at 9.5)

(931) WASHINGTON (44-62) at (932) HOUSTON (60-47)
Trend: WSH is 50-29 (+14.87 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+1.5 at HOU)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Thursday, July 31)

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