Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, October 13, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* LCS Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 7-28 (-17.8 units, ROI: -50.9%) on run lines.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs CLE)
Trend: Under the total is 18-6-1 (+11.35 units) in night games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 7)
Trends and Systems for the MLB Postseason
Notable Postseason Team Trends (since 2015)
* CLEVELAND: 26-22 to the Under for +2.20 units
* TAMPA BAY: 19-16-1 to the Under for +1.35 units
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 7)
Line angles
– Home favorites of -112 to -180 in the MLB playoffs dating back to 2018 have been very vulnerable; they are just 96-91 SU (-33.37 units, ROI: -17.8%)
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-137 vs CLE)
Coming off wins/losses
– Home teams coming off a loss in a series game have been terrible bounce-back options, going 67-69 SU (-20.17 units, ROI: -14.8%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-137 vs CLE)
Series wins status
– Home field has not meant nearly as much to teams that are trailing in a series and are favored at home, as they are just 43-48 SU (-28.65 units, ROI: -31.5%) since 2013.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-137 vs CLE)
Stats from last game trends
– Teams playing as underdogs (or pick-’em) in a MLB postseason series game after their bullpen was used for 5+ innings in the same series prior game are just 45-71 SU (-15.24 units, ROI: -13.1%) since 2016.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+113 at TB)
Trends based on regular-season records
– In the last five playoff seasons, MLB teams that won less than 90 games are on a surge of 51-53 SU (+9.45 units, ROI: 9.1%) and 61-43 on run lines (+2.65 units, ROI: 2.5%) in playoff games when not matched up against similar.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND
Totals angles
– The last four MLB postseasons have been very good for Over bettors, as that side of the total has gone 114-109-3, and Overs have produced a return of +19.61 units, an ROI of 8.8%. Total odds are usually heavily shaded towards Unders in recent postseasons.
System Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-TB (o/u at 7)
LCS round angles
– Game-by-game underdogs have proven to be a profitable bet overall lately, going 48-45 (+15 units, ROI: 16.1%) since 2018.
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+113 at TB)
– The divisional round showed a trend in which teams scoring seven runs or more in a game were a solid bet in the next outing. For the LCS, be wary of teams following up a same-series win in which they scored six runs or more, as those teams are just 27-41 SU (-20.44 units, ROI: -30.1%) since 2015, including 4-8 the last two years.
System Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+113 at TB)
– Over the last 12 non-neutral LCS series, home teams in Game 2 are on a run of 16-9 SU (+7.52 units, ROI: 30.1%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-137 vs CLE)
– Game 2 teams that lost in Game 1 are just 8-18 SU (-12.64 units, ROI: -48.6%) and 6-20 (-16.80 units, ROI: -64.6%) on run lines since 2013
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY
– Game 2 favorites of -110 to -145 ML are on a brutal skid of 7-28 (-17.8 units, ROI: -50.9%) on run lines.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-1.5 vs CLE)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams just above the profitability line at 219-178 for +0.13 units, but at +0.03% ROI, still way better than the average loss (2-1, +0.43 units in the playoffs).
System Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+113 at TB)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season was slower than usual, 336-405 for -20.73 units, ROI -2.8%. Again, even at -2.8%, it is still a massive edge over the average -8.1% loss (7-4, +4.01 units in the playoffs).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (+113 at TB)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Theoretically, green star “edges” come up when a team has an odds edge of 15 cents over the actual price. That is a legacy thing. However, this year I have recorded that a 10-cent edge is actually better, as teams with an edge of 10 cents against the actual odds have gone 690-690 for +11.66 units, good for +0.8% ROI.
Ratings Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND +113 (+10 diff)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(907) CLEVELAND (89-79) at (908) TAMPA BAY (101-65)
Trend: CLE is 39-16 (+13.09 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+1.5 at TB)
Trend: TB is 32-18 (+12.53 units) vs left-handed starters this season
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 19-4 (+13.26 units) in his last 23 starts as a favorite vs AL opponents
Trends Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-137 vs CLE)
Trend: Under the total is 18-6-1 (+11.35 units) in night games with starter Parker Messick in his career
Trend: Under the total is 4-0 when starter Parker Messick faces TB in his career
Trend: Under the total is 3-0 when starter Freddy Peralta faces CLE in his career
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 7)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #2: Cleveland Guardians at Tampa Bay Rays
Trend: Under the total is on a 17-4-1 (81%, +12.60 units) run in Guardians-Rays series (5.32 runs per game in these 22 contests)
– The ROI on this trend is 60%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-TB (o/u at 7)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #9: Majority handle bettors have endured three consecutive poor playoff seasons in 2023-2025, with a combined record of 64-64 (50%) for -19.84 units and an ROI of -15.5% (16-11, +0.87 units in 2026).
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-137 vs CLE)
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