Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, April 15, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 357-390 but for +98.54 units and an ROI of 13.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+144 at ATL), ARIZONA (+119 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at PHI)
* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 140-141 (-59.01 units, ROI: -21%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+109 vs BOS)
* In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 214-245 SU but for +45.91 units (ROI: 10%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+153 at NYY)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 33-18 start for +6.08 units and an ROI of +11.9%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-126 at MIN), BALTIMORE (-136 vs AZ)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 6-9 for -4.38 units and an ROI of -29.2%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+144 at ATL), TEXAS (+102 at ATH)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, after a great last week, these teams are off to a 40-22 start for +7.27 units and an ROI of 11.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-136 vs AZ), TORONTO (-131 at MIL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 18-22 for +6.68 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+149 at PIT), ST LOUIS (-108 vs CLE)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 15-9 but for -7.55 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-219 vs NYM)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 10-5 start for -2.19 units. The ROI on that is -14.6%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-219 vs NYM)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in ’25, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The ’26 season is off to a conservative start, 26-30 for -0.44 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at PHI), CINCINNATI (-108 vs SF), TEXAS (+102 at ATH), MILWAUKEE (+109 vs TOR), COLORADO (+159 at HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the L3 regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the ‘26 results so far show a record of 5-13 for -7.54 units and an ROI of -41.9%.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+104 vs BOS)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, but it is off to a strangely fast start, 15-12 for +6.93 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-112 at CIN), NY METS (+179 at LAD)
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The 2026 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 10-15 for -11.81 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): COLORADO (+159 at HOU), MILWAUKEE (+109 vs TOR)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 411-431 but for +33.92 units and an ROI of 4% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+179 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 357-390 but for +98.54 units and an ROI of 13.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+144 at ATL), ARIZONA (+119 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at PHI)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 159-64 for +15.29 units and an ROI of 6.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ATLANTA vs MIA (-175 CURRENTLY)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 636-739 record but for +22.77 units and an ROI of 1.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-131 at MIN), NY METS (+179 at LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2007-1900 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -264.69 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO CUBS, TORONTO
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2011-2564 (44%) for -253.41 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON, TEXAS, SAN FRANCISCO, NY METS, SEATTLE, KANSAS CITY
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4066-3530 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -507.17 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, HOUSTON, MILWAUKEE, ST LOUIS
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 68-41 SU for +11.90 units (ROI: 10.9%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-131 at MIN)
*ALSO WATCH FOR SAN FRANCISCO at CIN (-112 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 214-245 SU but for +45.91 units (ROI: 10%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+153 at NYY)
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 463-522 SU but for +74.20 units (ROI: 7.5%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 160-171 SU for +38.87 units in L331 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TEXAS (+100 at ATH), MIAMI (+144 at ATL), COLORADO (+159 at HOU), KANSAS CITY (+109 at DET)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 38-97 skid (-35.97 units, ROI -26.6%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): NY METS (+179 at LAD)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-21 (+10.01 units, ROI: 25.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 94-174 (-58.96 units, ROI: -22%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (+179 at LAD)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 140-141 (-59.01 units, ROI: -21%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+109 vs BOS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -108 (+25 diff), MILWAUKEE +109 (+21)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: TAMPA BAY -115 (+18 diff), BALTIMORE -136 (+16)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TB-CWS OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-CIN UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), LAA-NYY UNDER 10.5 (-1.0), AZ-BAL UNDER 9 (-0.8), CLE-STL UNDER 9 (-0.7), KC-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) CHICAGO-NL (8-9) at (902) PHILADELPHIA (8-9)
Trend: CHC is 29-13 (+10.66 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+119 at PHI)
(907) MIAMI (9-9) at (908) ATLANTA (11-7)
Trend: Chris Paddack’s teams are 3-11 (-7.17 units) as +105 or more road underdogs since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+144 at ATL)
(911) BOSTON (6-11) at (912) MINNESOTA (11-7)
Trend: Under the total is 16-7 (+8.14 units) when MIN is a plus-money underdog with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-MIN (o/u at 8)
Trend: MIN is 18-11 (+5.52 units) against teams with a <= 0.500 win pct with starter Simeon Woods-Richardson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+104 vs BOS)
(921) ARIZONA (10-8) at (922) BALTIMORE (9-8)
Trend: BAL is 7-1 (+5.58 units) in the last eight at home against NL teams with start by Kyle Bradish
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-143 vs AZ)
(929) SEATTLE (8-10) at (930) SAN DIEGO (11-6)
Trend: SD is 13-3 (+9.69 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-115 vs SEA)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m, ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): CINCINNATI, KANSAS CITY, MILWAUKEE, TEXAS, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ARIZONA, CLEVELAND, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA, CINCINNATI, PITTSBURGH, NY YANKEES, ATLANTA, MILWAUKEE, HOUSTON, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): AZ-BAL, SF-CIN, MIA-ATL
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Friday, April 17)
