The following is a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 13, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 334-356 but for +102.17 units and a ROI of 14.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+147 at KC), COLORADO (+178 at STL), MINNESOTA (+128 at NYY), BOSTON (+128 at HOU) 

Since the start of the 2024 season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 362-234 for +82.26 units, an ROI of 13.8%!
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 vs DET) 

Trend: PIT is 10-22 (-8.14 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (+206 at MIL) 

Trend: Under the total is 40-21-1 (+16.90 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-TEX (o/u at 8.5)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating and starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 173-107 for +47.26 units, and an ROI of 16.9%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This has continually proven to be a good foundational angle to follow, as the prices are typically not high, and since the All-Star break, it is 46-37 for +12.22 units.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 vs DET) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 50-45 for -6.73 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -7.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+128 at NYY), TORONTO (-136 vs CHC)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 129-174 for -45.97 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15.2%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 26-42 for -15.42 units since All-Star break.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+167 vs LAD)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 278-153 for +35.41 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +8.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-258 vs PIT), TEXAS (-150 vs AZ), SAN DIEGO (-157 at SF), PHILADELPHIA (-124 at CIN), SEATTLE (-144 at BAL), CLEVELAND (-137 vs MIA), NY METS (-206 vs ATL), HOUSTON (-156 vs BOS), LA DODGERS (-205 at LAA), TAMPA BAY (-137 at ATH)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 113-211 for -35.40 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.9%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+147 at KC), COLORADO (+178 at STL) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 85-40 for -5.08 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we are again!
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-206 vs ATL), LA DODGERS (-205 at LAA) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings ana d winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 111-34 for +25.68 units, a ROI of 17.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-258 vs PIT), ST LOUIS (-220 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 335-339 for +49.38 units, ROI +7.3%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+112 vs DET), CHICAGO CUBS (+112 at TOR), BOSTON (+128 at HOU) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 148-160 for -9.05 units (ROI -2.9%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 74-71, -2.53 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – TORONTO (-136 vs CHC), LA ANGELS (+167 vs LAD) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 135-194 for -28.32 units, an ROI of -8.6%. Although last year’s ROI was about -1%, this year’s loss in ROI makes it an angle I want to keep tracking, and we will do so going forward.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+206 at MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (+129 vs SD), BALTIMORE (+118 vs SEA), MIAMI (+113 at CLE)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and after a huge month-long run of +22.73 units, it is now 188-136 for +22.30 units (ROI 6.9%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-258 vs PIT), SAN DIEGO (-157 at SF), SEATTLE (-144 at BAL)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS, NY METS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): HOUSTON, TAMPA BAY 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in ’25, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.

System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY, TEXAS, CLEVELAND, CHICAGO CUBS, LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): WSH-KC, TB-ATH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 374-386 but for +43.63 units and a ROI of 5.7% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+191 at MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (+122 vs SD), LA DODGERS (-205 at LAA) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 632-807 but for +49.83 units and an ROI of 3.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+147 at KC), ARIZONA (+123 at TEX), COLORADO (+178 at STL), MINNESOTA (+125 at NYY), BOSTON (+128 at HOU) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 334-356 but for +102.17 units and an ROI of 14.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON (+147 at KC), COLORADO (+178 at STL), MINNESOTA (+125 at NYY), BOSTON (+128 at HOU) 

MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 141-55 for +16.41 units and an ROI of 8.4% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-238 vs PIT) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 593-665 record, but for +52.37 units and an ROI of 4.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+191 at MIL), PHILADELPHIA (-124 at CIN), MINNESOTA (+128 at NYY), TAMPA BAY (-137 at ATH) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1893-1796 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.64 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-156 vs MIN), NY METS (-205 vs ATL), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 vs DET), MILWAUKEE (-258 vs PIT), BOSTON (+128 at HOU)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1893-2400 (44.1%) for -211.22 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+206 at MIL), PHILADELPHIA (-124 at CIN), SEATTLE (-144 at BAL), MINNESOTA (+128 at NYY), CHICAGO CUBS (+112 at TOR), TAMPA BAY (-137 at ATH) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3841-3358 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -507.59 units and a ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-258 at PIT), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+108 vs DET), KANSAS CITY (-181 vs WSH), CINCINNATI (+102 vs PHI), NY YANKEES (-156 vs MIN), TORONTO (-136 vs CHC), NY METS (-205 vs ATL), LA ANGELS (+167 vs LAD), ATHLETICS (+113 vs TB) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 566-473 (54.5%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.26 units, for an ROI of 2.5%.
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (-156 vs BOS) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 343-172 (66.6%) for +46.21 units and an ROI of 9%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-258 vs PIT), NY METS (-205 vs ATL)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 245-252 run (+17.99 units, ROI: 3.6%).
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+122 vs SD) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 228-147 in their last 375 tries (+39.00 units, ROI: 10.4%).
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-144 at BAL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 119-125 (-54.63 units, ROI: -22.4%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-258 vs PIT)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com. 

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +206 (+39 diff), MINNESOTA +128 (+18)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CLEVELAND -137 (+28), ST LOUIS -220 (+25), TEXAS -150 (+20), PHILADELPHIA -124 (+19), NY METS -206 (+16) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LAD-LAA OVER 9.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATL-NYM UNDER 9 (-1.0), TB-ATH UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(951) PITTSBURGH (51-70) at (952) MILWAUKEE (75-44)
Trend: Under the total is 9-1 (+8.00 units) in PIT DIVISIONAL DAY games with starter Mitch Keller since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-MIL (o/u at 7.5)

Trend: PIT is 10-22 (-8.14 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last six seasons
Trend: MIL is 41-20 (+14.85 units) at home this season
Trends Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-258 vs PIT)

(953) COLORADO (31-88) at (954) ST LOUIS (61-60)
Trend: COL is 5-12 (-6.30 units) vs NL Central opponents with starter Austin Gomber in the last four seasons
Trend: Austin Gomber not good when overmatched on paper, just 6-22 (-9.35 units) as a large underdog of +175 or more
Trend: COL is 4-11 (-2.90 units) during the day with Austin Gomber since the start of the 2024 season
Trends Match (FADE): COLORADO (+178 at STL) 

(955) SAN DIEGO (68-52) at (956) SAN FRANCISCO (59-61)
Trend: Nick Pivetta is 12-3 (+9.33 units) in day games within -150 to +130 line range since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-148 at SF)

(957) PHILADELPHIA (69-50) at (958) CINCINNATI (63-58)
Trend: PHI is 15-21 (-10.27 units) in the last 36 games within line range of -145 or worse with starter Cristopher Sanchez
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-124 at CIN)

Trend: Under the total is 37-20-4 (+15.00 units) in Phillies’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CIN (o/u at 8.5) 

(959) ATLANTA (51-68) at (960) NEW YORK-NL (64-55)
Trend: ATL is 21-38 (-27.19 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+167 at NYM)

Trend: NYM is 18-2 (+14.69 units) as a -130 favorite or higher with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-205 vs ATL) 

(963) SEATTLE (67-53) at (964) BALTIMORE (53-66)
Trend: Under the total is 19-9-2 (+9.10 units) when SEA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-BAL (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Trevor Rogers is 15-36 (-16.90 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+118 vs SEA)

(965) MINNESOTA (56-63) at (966) NEW YORK-AL (64-56)
Trend: MIN is 24-38 (-16.23 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+128 at NYY)

(967) BOSTON (66-55) at (968) HOUSTON (67-53)
Trend: Walker Buehler is 18-8 vs AL teams (+8.25 units) since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (+128 at HOU) 

(969) TAMPA BAY (58-63) at (970) ATHLETICS (54-68)
Trend: Under the total is 43-27-5 (+13.30 units) in Rays’ night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-ATH (o/u at 9.5) 

(971) WASHINGTON (47-72) at (972) KANSAS CITY (60-60)
Trend: WSH is 16-34 (-16.62 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+147 at KC) 

(973) ARIZONA (58-62) at (974) TEXAS (61-60)
Trend: Under the total is 40-21-1 (+16.90 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): AZ-TEX (o/u at 8.5) 

(977) CHICAGO-NL (67-51) at (978) TORONTO (70-50)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 13-23 (-24.03 units) at home within the line range of -135 to -180 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-136 vs CHC) 

(979) LOS ANGELES-NL (68-52) at (980) LOS ANGELES-AL (58-62)
Trend: LAA is 46-38 (+18.10 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+167 vs LAD) 

Series #3: Detroit at Chicago White Sox, Mon 8/11-Wed 8/13
Trend: DETROIT has won 13 of its last 16 (81.3%, +7.48 units) games when visiting the Chicago White Sox.
–   The ROI on this trend is 46.8%.
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-132 at CWS)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, August 15)

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