The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 20, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

Trend: Chris Bassitt is an absurd 27-3 (+22.05 units) as a road favorite of -133 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-172 at PIT

Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 122-126 (-52.63 units, ROI: -21.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-101 at TB) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 338-360 but for +103.01 units and an ROI of 14.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+128 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at ATL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 175-111 for +44.49 units, and an ROI of 15.6%!. For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-121 vs NYY), ATHLETICS (+101 at MIN), LA ANGELS (-137 vs CIN) 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 135-184 for -48.00 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up. This angle is 32-52 for -17.45 units since ASB.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-102 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (-157 vs SF)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 292-168 for +22.19 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +4.8%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA DODGERS (-327 at COL), TAMPA BAY (-121 vs NYY)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 121-216 for -27.61 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.2%!
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+255 vs LAD) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 93-47 for -12.12 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we are again!
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-194 vs CWS) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 113-37 for +20.16 units, an ROI of 13.4%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-327 at COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was the 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 73-30 for +6.12 units. Still, after a 3-3 week-and-a-half for -3.19 units, we remain very close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-194 vs CWS)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. This season’s record stands at 345-362 for +36.67 units, ROI +5.2%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+141 vs TOR), DETROIT (-101 vs HOU), CLEVELAND (-102 at AZ), ST LOUIS (+104 at MIA), ATHLETICS (+101 at MIN) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 158-166 for -3.72 units (ROI -1.1%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 78-74, -0.30 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs MIL)
3+ games – NY YANKEES (-101 at TB), CINCINNATI (+113 at LAA) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 146-200 for -20.92 units, an ROI of -6%. Although last year it was about -1% ROI, this year’s loss ROI makes it an angle I want to keep tracking, and we will do so going forward.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (+128 at PHI), HOUSTON (-121 at DET)

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025 and after a huge month-long run of +15.88 units, it is now 195-145 for +15.45 units (ROI 4.5%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-157 vs SEA), NY METS (-176 at WSH), KANSAS CITY (-115 vs TEX)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star Break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): DETROIT, MIAMI, MINNESOTA, CINCINNATI 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in 2025, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in ALL 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO, PHILADELPHIA, CLEVELAND, ATLANTA, CINCINNATI 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season, when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI 

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 378-391 but for +42.82 units and an ROI of 5.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+128 at PHI), HOUSTON (-131 at DET) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 638-814 but for +50.46 units and an ROI of 3.5% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+128 at PHI), ST LOUIS (+104 at MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at ATL), CINCINNATI (+113 at LAA) 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 338-360 but for +103.01 units and an ROI of 14.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+128 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at ATL)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 599-671 record, but for +52.15 units and an ROI of 4.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (+128 at PHI), HOUSTON (-131 at DET)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game.

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1907-1808 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.08 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES (-101 at TB), LA DODGERS (-327 at COL) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1906-2414 (44.1%) for -212.77 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (-131 at DET), TEXAS (-105 at KC), MILWAUKEE (-115 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+128 at SD)

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3862-3383 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -516.96 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-156 vs SEA), ATLANTA (-194 vs CWS), KANSAS CITY (-115 vs TEX), ARIZONA (-119 vs CLE), SAN DIEGO (-157 vs SF) 

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 317-280 (53.1%) for +22.82 units and an ROI of 3.8% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-121 vs NYY), COLORADO (+255 vs LAD)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 166-134 (+9.69 units, ROI: 3.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-115 vs TEX) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 228-148 in their last 376 tries (+37.63 units, ROI: 10%).
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-115 vs TEX)

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 122-126 (-52.63 units, ROI: -21.2%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-101 at TB)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PITTSBURGH +141 (+25 diff), COLORADO +255 (+20), SEATTLE +128 (+15) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SAN DIEGO -157 (+19 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: LAD-COL OVER 11.5 (+1.2) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SF-SD UNDER 8 (-0.9), HOU-DET UNDER 8.5 (-0.5), CWS-ATL UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(903) NEW YORK-NL (67-58) at (904) WASHINGTON (50-75)
Trend: WSH is 24-39 (-14.08 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+144 vs NYM) 

(905) MILWAUKEE (79-47) at (906) CHICAGO-NL (72-54)
Trend: Colin Rea is good in the -120 to +135 line range (25-11 record, +15.43 units) since the start of the 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-105 vs MIL) 

(907) LOS ANGELES-NL (72-54) at (908) COLORADO (36-90)
Trend: LAD is 29-30 (-14.74 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-327 at COL) 

(909) SAN FRANCISCO (61-65) at (910) SAN DIEGO (70-56)
Trend: SF is 1-5 (-4.21 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Landen Roupp
Trend: SF is 13-21 (-14.47 units) vs LH starters this season
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+128 at SD) 

(913) NEW YORK-AL (68-57) at (914) TAMPA BAY (61-65)
Trend: NYY is 3-9 (-5.31 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-101 at TB) 

(915) TEXAS (62-65) at (916) KANSAS CITY (65-61)
Trend: Under the total is 39-25 (+11.50 units) when KC is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-KC (o/u at 8) 

(917) ATHLETICS (57-70) at (918) MINNESOTA (58-67)
Trend: MIN is 7-15 (-10.30 units) between the line range of -105 to -125 with starter Bailey Ober in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (-123 vs ATH) 

(919) TORONTO (74-53) at (920) PITTSBURGH (53-74)
Trend: Chris Bassitt is an absurd 27-3 (+22.05 units) as a road favorite of -133 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 26-13 (+7.56 units) in DAY games vs teams with a losing record in the last six seasons
Trend: Chris Bassitt is 11-6 (+4.10 units) in July/Aug/Sept day games in the last three seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-172 at PIT) 

(921) SEATTLE (68-59) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (73-53)
Trend: Under the total is 20-12-2 (+6.80 units) when SEA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-PHI (o/u at 8.5) 

(923) CLEVELAND (64-61) at (924) ARIZONA (61-66)
Trend: Under the total is 33-21-4 (+9.90 units) when CLE is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CLE-AZ (o/u at 9)

Trend: AZ is 18-10 (+6.08 units) in day game starts by Brandon Pfaadt since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-119 vs CLE) 

(925) CHICAGO-AL (45-81) at (926) ATLANTA (57-69)
Trend: CWS is 19-45 (-15.49 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+157 at ATL)

Series #14: Athletics at Minnesota, Tue 8/19-Thu 8/21
Trend: Favorites are on a 19-4 (82.6%, +11.61 units) surge in the Athletics-Minnesota head-to-head series.
– The ROI on this trend is 50.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (-123 vs ATH)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, August 21)

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