Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, August 6, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 327-355 but for +92.80 units and an ROI of 13.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+148 at PHI), MINNESOTA (+157 at DET), ST LOUIS (+181 at LAD), MILWAUKEE (+109 at ATL)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 12-0 (+12.40 units) on the ROAD vs NL West opponents within line range of -300 to +125 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-225 at COL)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 268-142 for +42.56 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +10.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-176 vs CLE), LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL), SEATTLE (-267 vs CWS)
Trend: Under the total is 15-3 (+11.80 units) when SF is a favorite with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-PIT (o/u at 8)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **
1) Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating of higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game have gone 47-43 for -6.15 units when not matched up against similar. This represents an ROI of -6.8% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in games.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-157 at PIT), ATLANTA (-133 vs MIL)
2) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 124-164 for -43.11 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -15%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (-102 vs TB), MIAMI (-118 vs HOU)
3) Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 268-142 for +42.56 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +10.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-176 vs CLE), LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL), SEATTLE (-267 vs CWS)
4) Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 108-202 for -33.12 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -10.7%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): COLORADO (+181 vs TOR), WASHINGTON (+118 vs ATH)
FADE better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For ’25, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 82-38 for -3.83 units. I have predicted that we would eventually be in the red, and we finally are!
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-194 vs MIN), LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL), SEATTLE (-267 vs CWS)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a very strong start, 105-33 for +21.67 units, a ROI of 15.7%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-225 at COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 70-27 for +9.31 units. Still, we remain somewhat close to going into the usual negative territory.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (-194 vs MIN), LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. That is happening big time, as we are rolling lately, and the season record stands at 319-319 for +49.26 units, ROI +7.7%. This comes after a breakout 61-50, +28.88-unit surge since the ASB!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+129 vs SF), CLEVELAND (+144 at NYM), TEXAS (+113 vs NYY), MILWAUKEE (+109 at ATL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 148-158 for -6.22 units (ROI -2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 73-43 for -2.31 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – CINCINNATI (+113 at CHC), HOUSTON (-104 at MIA)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and after a huge four-week run of +19.02 units, it is now 177-131 for +18.59 units (ROI 6%). Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-181 vs BAL), BOSTON (-144 vs KC), MILWAUKEE (+109 at ATL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 135-70 (65.8%) for -31.26 units and an ROI of -15.2%. Although positive in ’25, this has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly. Interestingly, majorities backed these road favorites in all 38 possible games this season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA, NY METS, TORONTO, ATHLETICS
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 371-381 but for +45.89 units and an ROI of 6.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+148 at PHI), NY METS (-179 vs CLE), NY YANKEES (-137 at TEX), COLORADO (+181 vs TOR)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 622-802 but for +40.51 units and an ROI of 2.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+148 at PHI), MINNESOTA (+157 at DET), CLEVELAND (+146 at NYM), CINCINNATI (+113 at CHC), ST LOUIS (+181 at LAD), KANSAS CITY (+119 at BOS), MILWAUKEE (+109 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 327-355 but for +92.80 units and an ROI of 13.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+148 at PHI), MINNESOTA (+157 at DET), ST LOUIS (+181 at LAD), MILWAUKEE (+109 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 140-54 but for +17.47 units and a ROI of 9% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-194 vs MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 587-662 record, but for +47.31 units and an ROI of 3.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+148 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (+119 at BOS), NY YANKEES (-137 at TEX)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different MLB betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1886-1787 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -247.47 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (-137 at WSH), TORONTO (-225 at COL), SAN DIEGO (-139 at AZ), LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1881-2383 (44.1%) for -206.47 units and an ROI of -4.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (+148 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (+119 at BOS), NY YANKEES (-137 at TEX)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3816-3342 (53.3%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -511.56 units and an ROI of -7.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-181 vs BAL), WASHINGTON (+113 vs ATH), BOSTON (-144 vs KC), LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL), ARIZONA (+114 vs SD), SEATTLE (-267 vs CWS)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 342-171 (66.7%) for +47.40 units and an ROI of 9.2%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-225 vs STL)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 313-278 (53%) for +20.95 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+113 vs ATH)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 221-146 in their last 367 tries (+33.40 units, ROI: 9.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (+109 at ATL), BOSTON (-144 vs KC)
Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade, as their four-game winning streak reaches five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 114-125 (-59.67 units, ROI: -25%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+109 at ATL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +213 (+29 diff), ST LOUIS +182 (+28), MILWAUKEE +109 (+26), MINNESOTA +160 (+23), PITTSBURGH +129 (+19)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: KC-BOS OVER 8.5 (+0.8), NYY-TEX OVER 8 (+0.7)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: STL-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.7), SD-AZ UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) SAN FRANCISCO (57-57) at (902) PITTSBURGH (49-65)
Trend: Under the total is 15-3 (+11.80 units) when SF is a favorite with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-PIT (o/u at 8)
Trend: SF is 14-4 (+11.22 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-157 at PIT)
Trend: PIT is 35-23 (+9.48 units) on the run line in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (+1.5 vs SF)
(903) CINCINNATI (60-54) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (65-48)
Trend: CIN is 7-2 (+6.45 units) on the road in divisional matchups with starter Andrew Abbott since 2023
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+113 at CHC)
(905) ST LOUIS (57-58) at (906) LOS ANGELES-NL (66-48)
Trend: LAD is 11-20 (-9.11 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs STL)
(907) MILWAUKEE (69-44) at (908) ATLANTA (47-65)
Trend: Jose Quintana is 1-6 (-5.15 units) in the last seven starts vs Atlanta
Trend Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (+109 at ATL)
Trend: ATL is 9-4 (+3.92 units) with starter Spencer Strider against teams with a 60% or higher win pct
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-133 vs MIL)
(911) MINNESOTA (53-60) at (912) DETROIT (66-49)
Trend: MIN is 22-33 (-19.16 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+157 at DET)
(913) NEW YORK-AL (60-54) at (914) TEXAS (60-55)
Trend: Under the total is 36-19-1 (+15.10 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-TEX (o/u at 8)
Trend: TEX is 4-11 (-7.14 units) when facing teams with a >= 0.500 win pct with starter Jack Leiter since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+113 vs NYY)
(915) TAMPA BAY (56-59) at (916) LOS ANGELES-AL (55-59)
Trend: TB is 16-6 (+10.42 units) within the -130 to +125 line range with starter Shane Baz since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-119 at LAA)
Trend: Under the total is 22-10 (+11.00 units) when TB faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TB-LAA (o/u at 9)
(921) BALTIMORE (51-63) at (922) PHILADELPHIA (65-48)
Trend: Under the total is 30-15-4 (+13.50 units) when BAL is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-PHI (o/u at 8)
Trend: Trevor Rogers is 14-36 (-18.38 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (+148 at PHI)
Trend: PHI is 8-11 (-12.16 units) as a favorite within -170 to -198 line range with starter Ranger Suarez in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-181 vs BAL)
(923) CLEVELAND (58-55) at (924) NEW YORK-NL (63-51)
Trend: CLE is 6-17 (-11.49 units) against teams with a win pct of 55% or higher with starter Gavin Williams since 2023
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+144 at NYM)
Trend: NYM is 18-1 (+16.50 units) as a -130 favorite or higher with starter David Peterson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-176 vs CLE)
(925) TORONTO (67-48) at (926) COLORADO (30-83)
Trend: Kevin Gausman is 12-0 (+12.40 units) on the road vs NL West opponents within line range of +125 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-225 at COL)
Trend: Under the total is 29-17-1 (+10.30 units) in Rockies’ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-COL (o/u at 11.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Monday, August 11)
