The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, July 23, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

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AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen. 

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 316-349 but for +85.10 units and an ROI of 12.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+148 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+148 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (+128 at CHC), HOUSTON (+104 at AZ), MILWAUKEE (+112 at SEA), MINNESOTA (+176 at LAD), BOSTON (+130 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+176 at TB) 

Trend: Sean Manaea is 12-0 (+12.00 units) as a home favorite of -180 or more in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-181 vs. LAA) 

Trend: Favorites are just 24-41 (36.9%, -33.57 units) in the last 65 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -51.6%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-137 at TOR)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of ASB 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs. KC) 

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

** NEW STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS **

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 110-142 for -36.07 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+129 vs. SD), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+176 at TB), TEXAS (-144 vs. ATH)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 245-122 for +50.71 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +13.8%. This is obviously the ultimate scenario.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (-158 at MIA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 97-191 for -40.71 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -14.1%! This is the double whammy scenario to fade.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+156 vs. STL) 

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For 2025, these teams are off to a very strong start, 102-31 for +23.55 units, an ROI of 17.7%.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-192 at COL) 

Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 160-122, but for -115.88 units in the 2023 and 2024 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -41.1%, very solid results. So far in 2025, these teams are still unusually positive, 68-26 for +9.17 units. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this angle dive in the second half of the season.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-192 at COL) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were looking for a bounce back in 2025. That seems to be happening, as we are well in the black again with a season record of 277-288 for +25.38 units, ROI +4.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+143 at ATL), PITTSBURGH (+115 vs DET), MILWAUKEE (+112 at SEA), HOUSTON (+104 at AZ), MINNESOTA (+175 at LAD), BOSTON (+130 at PHI), TORONTO (+118 vs NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+176 at TB)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, a ROI of -8.6%. For this year, they are 130-139 for -7.45 units (ROI -2.4%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m looking forward to seeing what happens in the latter part of the season, 68-65, -0.26 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (+104 vs. CIN), PHILADELPHIA (-159 vs. BOS) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025. After a huge two-and-a-half week stretch of 26-17 for +9.49 units, it is now 151-115 for +9.06 units. Hopefully, many of you remained patient with it after a slow start.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY METS (-180 vs. LAA), HOUSTON (+104 at AZ), CLEVELAND (-131 vs. BAL) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that was developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 9:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of ASB 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and a ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat considering this angle has included 1,017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): ARIZONA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: Majority handle bettors have been at their best overall in divisional games since the start of 2024, going 670-692 (49.2%) for -27.82 units and a ROI of -2.0%. This is about five full percentage points better for return. If you’re looking for a spot where these majorities are even better, try getting behind them when they back the underdogs in these divisional contests. In those games, these have gone 95-106 (47.3%) for -0.62 units and an ROI of -0.3%. This advantage is even greater and an indication that bettors do well when going against the grain.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ATHLETICS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, NY METS, CHICAGO CUBS, ARIZONA, MILWAUKEE, LA DODGERS, BOSTON 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA, ARIZONA 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.6%, May has been a brutal -11.8%, June has climbed back up a bit to -10.6%, although these bettors lost -83.8 units in 2025. July has slipped to -13.1%, followed by an August return of -3.5% in consecutive seasons, and finally a September/October drain of -13.3%.
– Majority handle bettors in July games of 2023-25 have gone just 487-419 (53.8%) for -116.39 units and an ROI of -13.1%
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the season-and-a-half, or since the beginning of 2024, the average posted total in MLB games has been a touch over 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority handle bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 128-104 (55.2%) for +13.6 units and an ROI of +5.9%!
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-TB

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series. 

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 364-374 but for +46.97 units and an ROI of 6.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CINCINNATI (-123 at WSH), ATHLETICS (+118 at TEX)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 316-349 but for +85.10 units and an ROI of 12.8% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+148 at ATL), LA ANGELS (+148 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (+128 at CHC), HOUSTON (+104 at AZ), MILWAUKEE (+112 at SEA), MINNESOTA (+176 at LAD), BOSTON (+130 at PHI), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+176 at TB) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 576-646 record, but for +52.82 units and an ROI of 4.3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-149 at MIA), BOSTON (+130 at PHI), CINCINNATI (-123 at WSH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+176 at TB), LA ANGELS (+148 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (+128 at CHC), ATHLETICS (+118 at TEX), ST LOUIS (-191 at COL), MILWAUKEE (+112 at SEA) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 406-388 (51.1%) for +24.28 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3.1%.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-181 vs. SF) 

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1861-1768 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -252.73 units. This represents an ROI of -7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (+148 at ATL), MINNESOTA (+176 at LAD) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1851-2356 (44%) for -214.25 units and an ROI of -5.1% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+130 at PHI), CINCINNATI (-123 at WSH), LA ANGELS (+148 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (+128 at CHC), ATHLETICS (+118 at TEX), MILWAUKEE (+112 at SEA) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3762-3309 (53.2%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -525.26 units and a ROI of -7.4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND (-131 vs. BAL), PITTSBURGH (+122 vs. DET), WASHINGTON (+101 vs. CIN), CHICAGO CUBS (-156 vs. KC), TEXAS (-144 vs. ATH), COLORADO (+155 vs. STL), LA DODGERS (-218 vs. MIN) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 556-466 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +26.18 units, for an ROI of 2.6%.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-217 vs. CWS)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

NO QUALIFYING STREAK PLAYS TODAY

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CHICAGO WHITE SOX +176 (+27 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +143 (+18), LA ANGELS +147 (+16) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: CINCINNATI -126 (+35 diff), ARIZONA -126 (+26), CLEVELAND -131 (+21), TEXAS -144 (+16) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CIN-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.8) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LAA-NYM UNDER 9 (-0.8), CWS-TB UNDER 9 (-0.8), DET-PIT UNDER 9 (-0.7), MIN-LAD UNDER 9 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) CINCINNATI (52-50) at (902) WASHINGTON (41-60)
Trend: Nick Lodolo is just 15-18 (-8.36 units) vs. teams with a losing record
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-123 at WSH)

Trend: Mike Soroka is 3-11 (-8.82 units) in the last 14 starts in the -120 to +115 line range
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+104 vs CIN) 

(903) SAN DIEGO (55-46) at (904) MIAMI (47-53)
Trend: MIA has been the most profitable ML underdog team in the MLB this season (35-39 record, +12.34 units)
Trend Match (PLAY): MIAMI (+133 vs. SD) 

(905) SAN FRANCISCO (53-49) at (906) ATLANTA (44-56)
Trend: Over the total is 18-10-2 (+7.00 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SF-ATL (o/u at 8) 

(909) BALTIMORE (44-56) at (910) CLEVELAND (50-50)
Trend: Under the total is 32-19-2 (+11.10 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-CLE (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Zach Eflin is 26-12 (+8.48 units) in night games with Zach Eflin since start of 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (+108 at CLE) 

(911) NEW YORK-AL (56-45) at (912) TORONTO (59-42)
Trend: Max Fried is 26-12 (+8.95 units) in road game starts since start of 2023 season
Trend: Max Fried is 48-33 in the last six seasons starting against teams with a winning record
Trends Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-137 at TOR)

Trend: Chris Bassitt is 11-5 (+5.60 units) in July/Aug/Sept day games in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+113 vs NYY) 

(913) CHICAGO-AL (36-66) at (914) TAMPA BAY (53-49)
Trend: Under the total is 40-24-4 (+13.60 units) when TB is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-TB (o/u at 9) 

(915) ATHLETICS (42-61) at (916) TEXAS (52-50)
Trend: Under the total is 34-16 (+16.50 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATH-TEX (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Patrick Corbin was 11-1 (+9.05 units) as a divisional home favorite of -140 or more with the Washington Nationals
Trend Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): TEXAS (-144 vs ATH)

(917) DETROIT (60-42) at (918) PITTSBURGH (41-61)
Trend: DET is 19-8 (+9.56 units) vs. LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-140 at PIT)

(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (49-52) at (920) NEW YORK-NL (58-44)
Trend: NYM is 36-16 (+11.10 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-181 vs LAA)

Trend: Sean Manaea is 12-0 (+12.00 units) as a HOME favorite of -180 or more in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-181 vs. LAA) 

(921) KANSAS CITY (49-53) at (922) CHICAGO-NL (60-41)
Trend: Seth Lugo is 7-17 (-11.76 units) on the road against teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+128 at CHC) 

(923) HOUSTON (59-42) at (924) ARIZONA (50-52)
Trend: Under the total is 15-7-4 (+7.30 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-AZ (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: AZ is 17-9 (+6.39 units) in day games with start by Brandon Pfaadt since start of 2023 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-126 vs HOU) 

(927) MINNESOTA (49-52) at (928) LOS ANGELES-NL (59-43)
Trend: MIN is 3-9 (-5.17 units) as a +105 or more road underdog with starter Chris Paddack since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+176 at LAD)

Trend: Tyler Glasnow is 38-11 (+11.22 units) as a favorite of -166 or higher in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-217 vs MIN)

(929) BOSTON (54-49) at (930) PHILADELPHIA (58-43)
Trend: Lucas Giolito is 12-18 in the last 30 starts against the NL (-8.38 units)
Trend Match (FADE): BOSTON (+130 at PHI)

Trend: Jesus Luzardo is 2-9 (-8.82 units) vs. AL East competition since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-159 vs. BOS)

Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Mon 7/21-Wed 7/23
Trend: Favorites are just 24-41 (36.9%, -33.57 units) in the last 65 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -51.6%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-137 at TOR)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: tomorrow, July 24)

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