Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 10, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: MIL is 13-0 (+13.00 units) as a favorite vs AL teams with starter Freddy Peralta since the start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-132 at TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 344-376 but for +95.04 units and an ROI of 13.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+113 at LAA), CHICAGO CUBS (+148 at ATL)
Trend: Under the total is 33-12 (+19.80 units) when San Diego faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SD (o/u at 7.5)
* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 161-206 for -46.95 units when not matched up against the same.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-126 vs AZ), ATHLETICS (+108 vs BOS), HOUSTON (+119 at TOR), ST LOUIS (+182 at SEA)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 161-206 for -46.95 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -12.8%. Fade these qualifiers anytime they come up, as it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-126 vs AZ), ATHLETICS (+108 vs BOS), HOUSTON (+119 at TOR), ST LOUIS (+182 at SEA)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 321-195 for +14.52 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +2.8%. However, this angle has cooled off dramatically over the last few weeks.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-148 vs CIN), LA DODGERS (-345 vs COL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 132-242 for -34.00 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.1%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+129 at MIA), COLORADO (+267 at LAD)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. The last two regular seasons for this system finished at a record of 252-103, for +8.01 units. The ROI on this angle was at +2.3% ROI. For ’25, these teams are off to a strong start, 122-42 for +16.61 units, an ROI of +10.1%.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-345 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in 2025. It is doing just that, bringing the season record to 402-428 for +42.88 units, ROI +5.2%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (+129 vs PIT), CLEVELAND (-109 vs KC), DETROIT (+140 at NYY), HOUSTON (+119 at TOR), CHICAGO CUBS (+151 at ATL), ST LOUIS (+182 at SEA)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle, so I’m pleased that we have been returning to normalcy in the latter part of the season, now 92-90, -2.12 units for the year.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 3+ games – TEXAS (+108 vs MIL), WASHINGTON (+129 at MIA), SEATTLE (-226 vs STL)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 172-228 for -16.31 units, an ROI of -4.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+108 vs BOS), ARIZONA (+104 at SF), PITTSBURGH (-158 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (-112 at CLE), NY METS (+141 at PHI), COLORADO (+267 at LAD)
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it is now 218-173 for +3.22 units (ROI 0.8%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): BOSTON (-132 at ATH), CLEVELAND (-109 vs KC), LA DODGERS (-345 vs COL)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: As of All-Star break 2025, when 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the ‘23 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 254-115 (68.8%) for +24.76 units and an ROI of +6.7%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 14%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the 2023 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Match (CONSIDER PLAYING): MIAMI
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Majority handle bettors have been outstanding over the last 2-1/2 seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 263-79 (76.9%) for +31.6 units and an ROI of 9.2%. This is typically not the kind of wager I used to get behind, but the numbers don’t lie. It is a great rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast so consider that when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE, PITTSBURGH, SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 393-401 but for +48.25 units and an ROI of 6.1% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+108 vs BOS), ARIZONA (+103 at SF), COLORADO (+267 at LAD)
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 652-839 but for +44.06 units and an ROI of 3% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ARIZONA (+103 at SF), MINNESOTA (+113 at LAA), CHICAGO CUBS (+148 at ATL), CINCINNATI (+122 at SD), ST LOUIS (+186 at SEA)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 344-376 but for +95.04 units and an ROI of 13.2% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+113 at LAA), CHICAGO CUBS (+148 at ATL)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a nice investment lately, going 148-58 for +17.77 units and an ROI of 8.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-345 vs COL)
MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored four or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 613-692 record but for +44.80 units and an ROI of 3.4% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-133 at TEX), ARIZONA (+103 at SF), MINNESOTA (+113 at LAA), ST LOUIS (+186 at SEA), COLORADO (+267 at LAD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 426-406 (51.2%) for +24.81 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 3%.
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-171 vs DET)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1950-1843 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -251.82 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-172 vs NYM), DETROIT (+140 at NYY), LA ANGELS (-137 vs MIN)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1943-2458 (44.1%) for -216.78 units and an ROI of -4.9% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-158 at BAL), KANSAS CITY (-112 at CLE), MINNESOTA (+113 at LAA), COLORADO (+267 at LAD)
Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3930-3435 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -517.41 units and an ROI of -7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (+108 vs MIL), SAN FRANCISCO (-125 vs AZ), LA ANGELS (-137 vs MIN), MIAMI (-162 vs WSH), PHILADELPHIA (-172 vs NYM), SEATTLE (-231 vs STL), LA DODGERS (-345 vs COL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 356-179 (66.5%) for +46.50 units and an ROI of 8.7%!
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-345 vs COL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 255-259 run (+21.22 units, ROI: 4.1%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-158 at BAL), NY METS (+141 at PHI)
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 169-141 (+5.60 units, ROI: 1.8%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (-109 vs KC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: COLORADO +267 (+45 diff), ST LOUIS +182 (+21), NY METS +141 (+17)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SAN DIEGO -148 (+23 diff), TAMPA BAY -143 (+19), LA ANGELS -137 (+18), BOSTON -132 (+16), SAN FRANCISCO -126 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: NYM-PHI OVER 7.5 (+0.5), TB-CWS OVER 8 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BOS-ATH UNDER 10.5 (-0.5), PIT-BAL UNDER 7.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) WASHINGTON (60-84) at (954) MIAMI (66-79)
Trend: WSH is 6-21 (-13.32 units) against NL teams with a win pct between 42%-58% with starter Jake Irvin since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+129 at MIA)
(955) NEW YORK-NL (76-69) at (956) PHILADELPHIA (85-60)
Trend: NYM is 31-42 (-18.50 units) in road games this season
Trend: PHI is 20-1 (+18.20 units) at home against teams with a <= 0.560 win pct with starter Cristopher Sanchez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-172 vs NYM)
(957) CHICAGO-NL (82-63) at (958) ATLANTA (65-80)
Trend: ATL is 51-52 (-30.73 units) as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-181 vs CHC)
(959) CINCINNATI (73-72) at (960) SAN DIEGO (79-66)
Trend: Under the total is 53-30-7 (+20.00 units) in Reds’ night games this season
Trend: Under the total is 33-12 (+19.80 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): CIN-SD (o/u at 7.5)
(961) COLORADO (40-105) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (81-64)
Trend: COL is 11-28 (-9.76 units) in the last 39 games on the ROAD with starter Kyle Freeland
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+267 at LAD)
Trend: LAD is 55-81 (-26.93 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-1.5 vs COL)
(965) MINNESOTA (64-81) at (966) LOS ANGELES-AL (68-77)
Trend: LAA is 0-9 (-12.37 units) with starter Jose Soriano in HOME games against non-divisional opponents with a losing record since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (-137 vs MIN)
(967) KANSAS CITY (73-72) at (968) CLEVELAND (74-70)
Trend: CLE is 4-7 (-3.03 units) in the -120 to +125 line range with starter Logan Allen this season
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (-109 vs KC)
(971) HOUSTON (78-67) at (972) TORONTO (83-61)
Trend: Jose Berrios is 13-21 (-18.54 units) within the line range of -140 to -160 in the last six seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-148 vs HOU)
(973) TAMPA BAY (72-72) at (974) CHICAGO-AL (55-90)
Trend: CWS is 82-55 (+17.31 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+1.5 vs TB)
(975) MILWAUKEE (89-57) at (976) TEXAS (76-70)
Trend: MIL is 13-0 (+13.00 units) as a favorite vs AL teams with starter Freddy Peralta since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-132 at TEX)
Trend: Under the total is 46-27-1 (+16.30 units) in Rangers’ home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIL-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
(977) PITTSBURGH (64-81) at (978) BALTIMORE (67-77)
Trend: PIT is 22-48 (-20.67 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-158 at BAL)
(979) ST LOUIS (72-74) at (980) SEATTLE (77-68)
Trend: SEA is 38-71 (-26.28 units) on the run line as a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs STL)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next: Friday, September 12)
