The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, September 17, 2025. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

 

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: SEA is 10-2 (+7.77 units) in the last 12 games vs AL Central teams with starter Bryce Miller
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+104 at KC) 

* Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 358-179 (66.7%) for +48.50 units and an ROI of 9%!
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-126 vs SD) 

* Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 128-130 (-53.69 units, ROI: -20.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-132 at TB) 

* This season, teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 171-217 for -43.75 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.3%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-101 vs CIN), ATHLETICS (+134 at BOS)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings. 

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 season so far, I have found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 194-132 for +41.56 units, and an ROI of +12.7%! For the full 2024 regular season, teams in that same scenario were 189-127 for +35 units and an ROI of 11.1%. This is continually proving to be a good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-110 at AZ), CLEVELAND (+122 at DET), TEXAS (-132 at HOU), LA DODGERS (-150 vs PHI)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 171-217 for -43.75 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -11.3%. Even though we’ve lost some steam on fading these teams lately, it has become a very reliable part of this report.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-101 vs CIN), ATHLETICS (+134 at BOS)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more have gone 333-202 for +19.89 units, when not matched against the same. This represents an ROI of +3.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-143 at PIT), CLEVELAND (+122 at DET), SAN DIEGO (+104 at NYM), KANSAS CITY (-126 vs SEA), MILWAUKEE (-205 vs LAA), TEXAS (-132 at HOU)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse have gone 140-253 for -33.39 units when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -8.5%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+123 vs ATL), COLORADO (+133 vs MIA) 

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when the win percentage difference between teams is <19%
In the last two regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 307-182 record, but for -118.22 units. This represented an ROI of -24.2%! For 2025, these teams have again gone negative after an unusually good start, 110-55 for -12.38 units (ROI of -7.5%). We have been hovering in the red for over a month now, like usual.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-205 vs LAA) 

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
A frequent and profitable system in the 2023 season, and prior to that as well, arose when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the last two seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), and we were seeking a bounce back in ’25. We gained +2.3 units last week to bring the season record to 423-456 for +41.35 units, ROI +4.7%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ST LOUIS (-101 vs CIN), SAN FRANCISCO (-110 at AZ), CLEVELAND (+122 at DET), ATHLETICS (+134 at BOS), TAMPA BAY (+108 vs TOR), SAN DIEGO (+104 at NYM), SEATTLE (+104 at KC) 

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Over the last two regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 428-485 for -78.6 units, an ROI of -8.6%. For this year, after a strangely strong two-week surge, they are 203-199 for +13.03 units (ROI 3.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last two regular seasons with a record of 186-218 for -29.23 units. ROI on that was -7.2%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, so this year’s results are eye-opening, now 100-93, +2.99 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – NY METS (-126 vs SD), HOUSTON (+108 vs TEX), PHILADELPHIA (+123 at LAD)
3+ games – ARIZONA (-111 vs SF), TORONTO (-132 at TB) 

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
In looking this week, I have gone back and found that over the course of the 2025 season so far, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games or more have gone just 183-241 for -16.51 units, an ROI of -4%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (+118 vs CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+104 vs BAL), WASHINGTON (+123 vs ATL), LA ANGELS (+167 at MIL), COLORADO (+133 vs MIA) 

Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a three-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I am giving it a chance in 2025, and it has recovered from a slow start to post a current record of 233-180 for +12.69 units (ROI 3.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-143 at PIT), ATLANTA (-151 at WSH), CLEVELAND (+122 at DET), ATHLETICS (+134 at BOS), SEATTLE (+104 at KC) 

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 AM ET. These can AND WILL change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage. 

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8% returns on all side majorities, and -4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle. 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #2: Majority bets groups have proven to be reasonably successful when not too many of them hop on a side since the beginning of the ‘23 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 60%+. When the majority percentage figure of bets landed in the 51%-59% range, these groups have gone 538-479 (52.9%) for -9.0 units and an ROI of -0.9%. This is no longer positive after two full seasons, but it is an improvement of almost 7% on the overall numbers, and a return that would easily keep bettors afloat, considering this angle has included 1017 total games. Following smaller majorities can be a sound strategy.
System Matches (CONSIDER PLAYING): ARIZONA, NY METS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 910-839 (52%) but for -206.24 units and an ROI of -11.8%. This is about four full percentage points worse for return and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 316-295 (51.7%) for -114.31 units and an atrocious ROI of -18.7%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS 

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct up-and-down pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the 2023 season.
– Majority handle bettors in September/October games have gone just 481-398 (54.7%) for -117.29 units and an ROI of -13.3% since the start of the 2023 season.
System Matches: FADE ALL MAJORITY HANDLE TEAMS THIS MONTH

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025 regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 401-405 but for +53.33 units and an ROI of 6.6% over the last three seasons
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+114 vs CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+101 vs BAL), SAN FRANCISCO (-108 at AZ), WASHINGTON (+124 vs ATL), TEXAS (-132 at HOU) 

MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 658-851 but for +39.72 units and an ROI of 2.6% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+123 at LAD) 

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 615-703 record but for +35.56 units and an ROI of 2.7% over the last three seasons
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (-120 at STL) 

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing eight different betting systems for betting teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game 

Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 6+ seasons, going 427-408 (51.1%) for +23.09 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-126 vs SEA)

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 1962-1851 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -249.70 units. This represents an ROI of -6.5%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-205 vs LAA), NY YANKEES (-156 at MIN), SEATTLE (+104 at KC), MINNESOTA (+128 vs NYY), PHILADELPHIA (+123 at LAD) 

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 1951-2479 (44%) for -230.78 units and an ROI of -5.2% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-119 at STL), ATHLETICS (+134 at BOS), LA ANGELS (+167 at MIL) 

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 3956-3450 (53.4%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -509.30 units and an ROI of -6.9%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (+108 vs TOR), DETROIT (-150 vs CLE), NY METS (-126 vs SD), MILWAUKEE (-205 vs LAA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+101 vs BAL), MINNESOTA (+128 vs NYY), KANSAS CITY (-126 vs SEA), ARIZONA (-112 vs SF), HOUSTON (+108 vs TEX), COLORADO (+133 vs MIA), LA DODGERS (-150 vs PHI) 

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 582-481 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.22 units, for an ROI of 2.8%.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+124 vs ATL) 

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 5+ seasons, going 358-179 (66.7%) for +48.50 units and an ROI of 9%!
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-126 vs SD)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 325-290 (52.8%) for +21.70 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+128 vs NYY) 

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the 2023 midseason article titled Handicapping MLB Streaks, detailing 14 different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks. 

Losing Streak Betting System #6:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 257-268 run (+15.88 units, ROI: 3%).
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+101 vs BAL) 

Winning Streak Betting System #2:
Strangely, teams on winning streaks of five games or more and winning fewer than 50% of their games on the season have been the better investment than winning teams, as they are 73-62 (+15.54 units, ROI: 11.5%) in their last 135 tries to extend streaks.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+134 at BOS)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs, typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 170-142 (+5.84 units, ROI: 1.9%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): CLEVELAND (+122 at DET) 

Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 233-152 in their last 385 tries (+36.67 units, ROI: 9.5%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATHLETICS (+134 at BOS), SEATTLE (+104 at KC) 

Winning Streak Betting System #6:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 128-130 (-53.69 units, ROI: -20.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): TORONTO (-132 at TB) 

Winning Streak Betting System #7:
Not surprisingly, when teams get to the level of having won nine games in a row or more, the lowest-priced teams riding winning streaks offer the most value. In fact, teams on winning streaks of 9+ games and favored by -145 or less (or underdog) have gone 41-21 (+21.58 units, ROI: 34.8%) in trying to stretch the streak another game.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+104 at KC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CLEVELAND +122 (+23 diff) 

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: TORONTO -132 (+25 diff) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHI-LAD OVER 7.5 (+0.9), LAA-MIL OVER 7.5 (+0.8), TOR-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.6), ATL-WSH OVER 8.5 (+0.5), MIA-COL OVER 10.5 (+0.5) 

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: SEA-KC UNDER 9 (-0.9), CLE-DET UNDER 8 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots. 

(901) CHICAGO-NL (87-64) at (902) PITTSBURGH (65-87)
Trend: Under the total is 38-22-2 (+13.80 units) in Pirates’ day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CHC-PIT (o/u at 7.5) 

(905) SAN FRANCISCO (75-76) at (906) ARIZONA (77-75)
Trend: SF is 25-38 (-16.00 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-1.5 at AZ) 

(907) ATLANTA (69-83) at (908) WASHINGTON (62-90)
Trend: WSH is 24-42 (-13.94 units) in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+123 vs ATL) 

(909) SAN DIEGO (82-69) at (910) NEW YORK-NL (78-73)
Trend: Under the total is 34-12 (+20.80 units) when SD faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SD-NYM (o/u at 7.5) 

(911) MIAMI (71-80) at (912) COLORADO (41-110)
Trend: COL is 7-33 (-20.85 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (+133 vs MIA) 

(913) PHILADELPHIA (91-61) at (914) LOS ANGELES-NL (84-67)
Trend: LAD is 58-51 (-28.89 units) in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-150 vs PHI) 

(915) BALTIMORE (71-80) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (57-95)
Trend: Under the total is 44-30-3 (+11.00 units) in Orioles’ road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-CWS (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: Martin Perez is 13-6 (+7.37 units) as an underdog within +100 to +110 line range in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+104 vs BAL) 

(917) CLEVELAND (79-71) at (918) DETROIT (85-66)
Trend: CLE is just 7-17 (-6.60 units) against teams with a win pct of 55% or higher with starter Gavin Williams since 2023
Trend Match (FADE): CLEVELAND (+122 at DET) 

(921) TORONTO (89-62) at (922) TAMPA BAY (73-78)
Trend: TOR is 57-30 (+24.18 units) in night games this season
Trend: TOR is 12-15 (-9.13 units) vs AL East foes with starter Kevin Gausman since 2023
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TORONTO (-132 at TB) 

(923) SEATTLE (83-68) at (924) KANSAS CITY (75-76)
Trend: SEA is 10-2 (+7.77 units) in the last 12 games vs AL Central teams with starter Bryce Miller
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (+104 at KC)

(925) NEW YORK-AL (84-67) at (926) MINNESOTA (66-85)
Trend: MIN is 37-39 (-15.25 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+128 vs NYY) 

(927) TEXAS (79-73) at (928) HOUSTON (83-69)
Trend: Under the total is 23-15-5 (+6.55 units) when HOU is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-HOU (o/u at 7.5) 

Series #23: Texas at Houston, Mon 9/15-Wed 9/17
Trend: Road teams are on a 34-21 (61.8%, +21.22 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas.
–  The ROI on this trend is 38.6%.
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-132 at HOU)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities. 

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, September 18)

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