Steve Makinen’s MLB Rest-of-Season Projections and Picks:
A few years ago, after the MLB All-Star break, I simulated the rest of the season’s schedule based on my power ratings. Although I performed reasonably well with the article, there were a couple of clear weak spots. At the time, the league was still two weeks away from the trade deadline, and a plethora of moves wound up significantly affecting the strength levels of several teams. Additionally, certain injury situations gained a lot more clarity over the next couple of weeks that I hadn’t accounted for previously. As such, I promised myself that I would wait until after the trade deadline before performing the exercise again. Well, that time has come! As we head into August with two months of regular-season baseball still to come, it is almost the perfect time to take a snapshot of the season thus far and add to it what might come based on the remaining schedules for each team and the current power ratings I am offering.
With around 52-54 games or so left for each team, some of the divisional races are open for the taking between at least a pair of teams. It is in these divisions that I have found simulating the rest of the season based on current power ratings, injury situations, and the remaining schedule can pay dividends, particularly when matching the current division win odds against the results. This article is all about doing that.
At the risk of putting pressure on myself to perform again in 2025, I have to take some time to “toot my own horn” as they say, as this was one of the most profitable articles that I did over the course of the entire 2024 calendar for VSiN. ALL SIX of the predictions and suggested wagers wound up “dead on accurate” as some like to say, producing +6.2 units of profit. Here is a recap of the wager suggestions I offered and personally made:
Steve’s AL East wager – Yankees to win the division at -170: WINNER
Steve’s AL Central wager – Kansas City to make the playoffs at -135: WINNER
Steve’s AL West wager – Seattle to not make the playoffs at -120: WINNER
Steve’s NL East wager – Mets to make the playoffs at +115: WINNER
Steve’s NL Central wager –St. Louis to not make the playoffs at -240: WINNER
Steve’s NL West wager –D’Backs to not make the playoffs at +105: WINNER
There are some important points I need to share before I reveal the projections I’ve come up with for the rest of the season schedules based on my current power ratings. The games in the current record section cover all games played through early afternoon, 8/1, including the Reds’ 3-2 win over the Braves Friday morning. Consider these key fundamentals and roster points in full before heading to the counter to place your wagers.
- The current power ratings also don’t account for the typical September “overpricing” that always comes up, as oddsmakers tend to boost the lines on the better teams in conjunction with the rising stakes of games. They also don’t reflect any late-season resting of starters after playoff spots have been clinched. In both of the aforementioned cases, game lines can swing by as much as 50 cents on a contest, which can account for about 0.1 wins/losses on my projections. Multiply this by five, and you can see how some changes would occur to the projected standings.
- I projected five-man rotations for every team based upon recent usage. Obviously, it is impossible to project every starting pitcher for the remaining 794 or so games, so this could also throw off the numbers. For instance, some teams will have double-headers remaining on their schedule thanks to the late-season start and earlier postponements. Naturally, these rotations will rely on spot starters in these unusual scheduling circumstances. The team with the most games remaining from now till the end of the season, whose rotations might be thrown off the most, is Miami, with 55 games remaining. There are eight others with 54, a handful of which do have prescheduled doubleheaders. The Braves have two doubleheaders remaining.
- I have made several assumptions and/or speculations based on when some key players may return to the field for their respective teams from the injured lists. These key positional players include Aaron Judge (Yankees), Ronald Acuna (Atlanta), Yordan Alvarez (Astros), Jacob Wilson (Athletics), Jackson Chourio (Brewers), among others. The biggest pitcher names expected to return at some point over the next couple of months include Aaron Nola (Phillies), Hunter Greene (Reds), Michael King (Padres),Cole Ragans (Royals), and the Braves duo of Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach. Of course, those latter two won’t enhance the Braves’ postseason chances much, but they do impact the schedule strengths of their remaining opponents. Several other pitcher and hitter injury situations are reflected, but these are the big ones.
- I ran all the simulation numbers for games of Friday, 8/1, through the end of the season, ensuring that all teams reached the 162-game full-season mark.
VIEW THE MLB REST-OF-SEASON SIMULATION CHART HERE
If you’re particularly interested in the MLB playoff matchups projected, they would be as follows:
American League:
#1) DETROIT – bye
#2) TORONTO – bye
#3) HOUSTON vs. #6) BOSTON
#4) NY YANKEES vs. #5) SEATTLE
National League:
#1) LA DODGERS– bye
#2) MILWAUKEE – bye
#3) PHILADELPHIA vs. #6) SAN DIEGO
#4) CHICAGO CUBS vs. #5) NY METS
Keep in mind, these projections are nearly done as a way for you to spot potential value on the current odds boards at DraftKings Sportsbook, whether that be by my schedule strength calculations or by the actual won-lost projections after 162 games. I’ll go through each of the divisions and share my own take on the findings and any potential value spots.
AL East Division
Despite Toronto owning a 3 1/2-game lead in the standings as of Friday morning, and Yankees star Aaron Judge still on the DL for likely another few weeks, my projections show New York closing to within a half-game of overtaking the Blue Jays by season’s end. I did bump up the Yankees’ bullpen rating due to their trade deadline acquisitions. This is largely due to the fact that New York has the league’s seventh-easiest remaining schedule, according to my schedule simulation, while Toronto has the eighth-toughest. The teams play each other just three more times the rest of the way, and those games are in the Bronx. Whoever loses that race, as well as Boston, is still in a comfortable spot to reach the postseason and claim wildcard spots. However, the cushion from the Sox to the Rangers for the final WC spot is just 1.5 games, and Texas’ starting rotation looks far better set up to make a run.
Steve’s wager(s) – BLUE JAYS to go under their current FanDuel win wager prop of 92.5, and BOSTON to not make the playoffs at +140. Toronto’s remaining schedule is tough, Boston’s starting rotation doesn’t put fear in anyone, even with the Dustin May acquisition.
AL Central Division
There was a point last week when you could hear whispers of the Tigers’ potential demise, even after holding a double-digit divisional lead for parts of the season to date. They were on an atrocious 1-12 skid at the time, but rebounded to win four straight games heading into the trade deadline on Thursday. Detroit made a few additions to their starting rotation, names that have postseason experience. Perhaps more importantly, however, during that four-game winning streak, the hibernating offense exploded for 34 runs, and they took a 9 1/2 game lead into August. None of the three closest teams chasing them have shown any consistent signs of making a late-season push. In fact, among the AL Central teams, only the White Sox has shown a pulse lately.
Steve’s wager: Kansas City (-700)/Cleveland (-1200)/Minnesota (-1400) three-team parlay to not make the playoffs at -326. I apologize for this one in advance. I just couldn’t see taking any other options, although I could be convinced that there is some value in Detroit going under 93.5 wins at this point, only due to disinterest in pushing things.
AL West Division
For a second straight season, Seattle did all it could at the trade deadline to bolster its roster, this season adding 3B Eugenio Suarez, among others. Suarez was one of the prized trade deadline targets with his 38 home runs so far. He joins Cal Raleigh to provide for what could be a very powerful middle of the lineup. The Astros’ 4 1//2 game lead at this point would seem to be quite comfortable, and they also made some noteworthy moves in the last few days, highlighted by bringing back Carlos Correa. That said, the interesting team from this division to watch the rest of the way is Texas, as its bats have woken up lately and after the addition of SP Merrill Kelly at the deadline, owns one of the best 1-2-3 front-end rotations in the league. If you’re wondering, the chart shows that Seattle has the easiest remaining schedule of the three contenders.
Steve’s wager: TEXAS to make the playoffs at +145. Last year, I went out on a limb and predicted the Mariners to not make the playoffs based on a significantly tougher schedule the rest of the way. The wager won, but with only a game of cushion to spare. Here, the Mariners are currently in a playoff spot, and the schedule is easier. I just don’t like the price. I do like the underdog odds on the Rangers, so long as the front three starters of Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi, and Merrill Kelly stay healthy.
NL East Division
For several years, the NL East has perennially been a three-horse race. The Braves have been downright pathetic this season, making it a two-horse race. However, if Atlanta brings back Chris Sale and Spencer Schwellenbach in the next few weeks, they could be a team capable of spoiling, one that no one will want to face in September. In which case, look out Cubs, who face the Braves six times. The Phillies and Mets will battle for the NL East title this season, and despite New York currently holding a half-game lead, my projections show the Phillies overtaking them by 1.1 games. To me, the lineups have similar strengths; the Mets’ bullpen is slightly better, but the biggest difference between the teams lies in their starting rotations. Philadelphia has three top-line starters in Zack Wheeler, Christopher Sanchez, and Ranger Suarez. The Mets’ top pitcher this season, David Peterson, would be #4 in the Phils’ rotation. I haven’t even discussed Jesus Luzardo and Aaron Nola, who return from the DL soon as well.
Steve’s wager: PHILADELPHIA to win the division at -105. The Phillies are actually the underdog in this race. I’m not so much anti-Mets here as I am pro-Philly, and I love the fact that Nola will be returning to the rotation and that they added Jhoan Duran from Minnesota at the trade deadline to bolster what was their weak spot, the bullpen.
NL Central Division
Despite the fact that most fans, bettors, and analysts would project that the Brewers would be the most likely team to fade from its current comfortable division-leading status, my projections actually show Milwaukee eventually surviving its race with the Cubs by a mere 0.2 games. Their 93.8 final win tally would also land the Brew Crew the #2 seed in the NL and a much-needed bye. If you’re wondering how the math worked out in that the Cubs have the third-easiest schedule remaining and Milwaukee’s is fifth-toughest, it’s because the latter has notable pitching edges right now and Chicago did little to bolster its roster this week. Elsewhere, the Reds are an intriguing option, and have a tremendous starting rotation themselves. Still, as they attempt to make a postseason push here, they are 7 1/2 games out of the division lead and 2 1/2 behind in the race for the final wild card spot behind San Diego. This team practically rebuilt itself at the trade deadline with the addition of several big-name players.
Steve’s wager: MILWAUKEE to win the division at +105.- The Brewers have a pretty tough schedule remaining but seem to be undervalued every season by those making the odds. They are playing far better baseball than the Cubs lately and have significant pitching edges in the head-to-head comparison. Plus, they have a nice underdog price here.
NL West Division
Although the Dodgers have been floundering in recent weeks and their division lead is down to three games over the Padres, it’s hard to see a team with this much talent unraveling to the point of losing that lead. L.A. expects Max Muncy back next week, and the starting rotation is slowly but surely coming back into form. The return of a healthy Blake Snell would bring that group back to an elite level. It was interesting to see San Diego remake its roster this week, although I would have liked to see the starting rotation addressed more. They are on a 5-0 surge as they prepare to host St. Louis this weekend. Elsewhere, a couple of weeks ago, this piece might have been way different, as Arizona has faded with a current 1-8 skid, and San Francisco has mustered wins in just two of their last 14 games. Both teams became sellers at the trade deadline.
Steve’s wager: LA DODGERS to win less than 97.5 games – My power rating numbers are typically very kind to the Dodgers, and even so, my projections have them finishing with a 96.2-65.8 record, 1.3 wins less than the current prop offered, That would have them finishing the season on a 33.2-19.8 run the rest of the way. To me, that is a bit overzealous considering they are 7-14 in their last 21 games.
