Tampa Bay Rays 2025 preview
As I said in my Chicago White Sox preview, there are some previews that I dread writing and others that I am really eager to dive into over the course of 30 teams. The Tampa Bay Rays fit the definition of one I was eager to dive into. This is such a fascinating season. They will not play at Tropicana Field, instead playing outside at Steinbrenner Field, the Spring Training home of the Yankees. Hurricane Milton shredded the roof of The Trop in early October and the Rays announced their plans about a month later.
This neutralizes one of the great home-field advantages in baseball, as the Trop has long been an excellent pitcher’s park. Tampa Bay has had tremendous success developing arms (at least until they have to have Tommy John surgery) and they’ve been able to parlay that into lots of wins in spite of some very tight financial constraints. Now they’ll be playing in an outdoor ballpark that has the same dimensions as Yankee Stadium in the heat of the Florida summer.
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The Rays have not allowed more than 700 runs since 2017. Coincidentally, up until this past season when they finished 80-82, that had been the last time that the Rays had a losing record. Their run of five straight playoff appearances ended last season. They haven’t won a playoff series in a non-COVID season since 2008. I don’t think that streak ends this season either.
But, the Rays are such an interesting team to figure out now. Twenty-six of the 40 players on the 40-man roster have been acquired via trade, one of many examples about how the Rays have to operate. I am cautiously optimistic that Tampa can return to their winning ways, but the amount of variables to handicap with this team is like trying to solve a ball of riddles.
2025 Tampa Bay Rays Odds
(odds from DraftKings as of Feb. 26)
World Series: +5000
AL Pennant: +1700
AL East: +750
Win Total: 81.5 (-115/-105)
Make Playoffs: Yes +180 / No -220
Tampa Bay Rays Preview: Offense
Handicapping the offense is pretty tricky. Last year’s team actually bottomed out with the bats, finishing 29th in wOBA at .294. Only the Nationals and White Sox hit fewer homers. But, because Tropicana Field is graded on such a curve, the Rays wound up with a 95 wRC+ that ranked 23rd. The Rays only batted .229 as a team at home with a .303 OBP and a .366 SLG. They weren’t any more competent on the road, batting .231 with a .301 OBP and a .366 SLG.
Two seasons ago, this was a Rays offense that batted .260/.331/.445 with a .335 wOBA and a 117 wRC+. Eleven full-time players had wRC+ marks over 100 on that 2023 team – Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes (Astros), Josh Lowe, Luke Raley (Mariners), Harold Ramirez (Mexican League), Wander Franco (prison), Randy Arozarena (Mariners), Brandon Lowe, Jose Siri (Mets), Jonathan Aranda. So, four of the 11 are left and that means some guys with track records.
Paredes was the team’s top hitter before leaving for the Astros. Brandon Lowe was second with a 123 wRC+ and Diaz was third with a 120 wRC+. Aranda only played 44 games with a 113 wRC+, but he should have a more prominent role this season. Where the Rays need improvement is from Josh Lowe, who struck out nearly 32% of the time, and two new full-timers getting a chance.
Junior Caminero, basically stolen from Cleveland in the Tobias Myers trade, was one of baseball’s top prospects before graduating to the Majors last season. He posted a 105 wRC+ in 43 games, but he has prolific power to go with pretty good contact skills for a guy with his kind of thump. The other is Christopher Morel, who has a 102 wRC+ in his MLB career to this point. He’s a guy without a position, but he’s got 30-homer upside himself.
I don’t love this offense, though. I think the power spike will come, primarily with the switch to playing outside, but this still looks like a low-BA, low-OBP offense. Most of the guys with high walk rates from last season are bench bats or have moved on. The high strikeout rates aren’t going to allow the lineup to create a lot of run-scoring opportunities with RISP. The Rays were 14th in PA with RISP last season, which is honestly higher than I would have expected. If they are able to generate chances, positive regression could be coming. The Rays only had a .268 BABIP and an 83 wRC+ with RISP last season.
Tampa Bay Rays Preview: Pitching
The pitching side of the spectrum will be intriguing to follow as well. The Rays had a 3.78 ERA with a 4.05 FIP as a staff last season. Going outside is going to create more home runs against and this is a Rays pitching staff that had the second-lowest ground ball rate against last season. They have been instructing their pitchers to pitch up in the zone with fastballs, partially because of the generous home-field advantage that suppresses power.
Well, they won’t have that anymore. Zack Littell (34% GB%) and Ryan Pepiot (35.3% GB%) could be the most impacted. The team also welcomes back Shane McClanahan from surgery and will hope that Drew Rasmussen can make it all the way through the campaign. Rasmussen is a ground ball guy, so I think he’ll mostly be okay, so long as he stays healthy.
Taj Bradley had a 4.11 ERA with a 4.17 xERA and a 4.09 FIP, as he struck out 154 over 138 innings, but also allowed 22 home runs. He did allow 11 at home and 11 on the road, but his SLG against was 92 points lower at home. Pepiot gave up 17 homers, with nine at home, but his SLG against was 49 points higher on the road. Littell gave up 11 homers in both places, but his SLG against was 136 points higher on the road. He actually had the most drastic home/road splits of any Rays starter.
McClanahan returns after missing the entire 2024 season. He’s been a wildly effective pitcher when he’s been out there with a 3.02 ERA and a 3.36 FIP in his 115 innings of work. He also doesn’t have contrasting home/road splits, which matters a lot here. Of course, we still need to see him healthy, as he was already named the Opening Day starter six weeks before the beginning of the season. He was limited to 115 innings in 2023 and seems to pitch through things often.
Rasmussen has a 2.95 ERA with a 3.01 FIP in 310.2 innings. He was only able to give the Rays 28.2 innings last season, but he looked great in his return from major surgery. He threw 146 innings in 2022 and that is the only season as a pro that he has gone over 140 innings. Tampa looks to be going with a six-man rotation, which makes a ton of sense given this collection of guys with thick medical files. The group also includes Shane Baz, who crossed 100 innings for the first time in his career last season after missing all of 2023.
Not only do the Rays have to worry about going outside with their fly ball starters, but Siri was +12 Defensive Runs Saved and +16 Outs Above Average, so their best outfield defender has moved on. Jonny DeLuca is a good OF defender, but he was awful with the bat last season. He did hit well in the minors for the Dodgers organization, but Tulsa and Oklahoma City provide pretty good hitting environments.
The Rays rotation is going to have to be more aggressive pitching towards strikeouts in my opinion. I do think they’re capable of doing it to some degree, but it’s a little dicey heading into this season.
The bullpen has been rebuilt on the fly, as Pete Fairbanks is still the closer and Edwin Uceta is still the primary setup man, but this group will look a lot different this season than it has in the past. I’m sure they’ll still be effective, as the Rays always find reliever diamonds in the rough.
Tampa Bay Rays Player to Watch
1B/DH Jonathan Aranda
One player who could really enjoy the change of venue is Aranda. He only had 44 games and 143 PA with the Rays, but he showed a lot of promise with a 46.4% Hard Hit% and a 16.5% Barrel% in his small sample. I’m really surprised to see the high Barrel% with a 50.5% GB% in his short time with the team. But, there is some untapped power potential here and especially if he can cut down on the grounders and hit the ball in the air a bit more.
It is worth noting that he only had a 40.3% Hard Hit% in the minors, but did have a higher launch angle and better batted ball distribution during his time in Durham. A lot of people will be looking to Caminero to be the power guy, but he, too, squanders some of the thunder in his bat with too many ground balls. It is a tweak that the Rays need to make to survive their new home park.
Tampa Bay Rays Season Win Total Odds & Prediction
While writing this preview and doing the research, I spent some time thinking about how wide the range of outcomes might be for the Rays. How low is the floor? How high is the ceiling? With this lineup and my concerns about the rotation, I don’t think that this is a playoff team or one that will really be in that discussion when all is said and done. But, I also don’t think we see the Rays with anything under 75 or so wins. That’s still pretty far from the win total line, but I don’t envision this team bottoming out.
However, if they’re going to, I think this is the season that it could happen. Their edges seem to be getting duller and duller as other organizations get smarter and smarter. If the Rays are unable to improve in the K% department on the hitting side and don’t get the same strikeout rates from the starters that are on the upper end of their personal performance levels, I have serious concerns. Brandon Lowe is also a trade candidate and so is Littell. The Rays only have $500,000 guaranteed on the books now for 2027. This could be approaching a full-fledged rebuild. I think I have to go Under.
Pick: Under 81.5
