For an updated breakdown of Thursday's betting action, be sure to tune in to the VSiN Market Insights Podcast with Josh Appelbaum. It will be posted by 3 p.m. ET. I'll be joining The Lombardi Line at 1:30 p.m. ET to offer a market update and then I'll be co-hosting Betting Across America with Ben WIlson from 3 to 4 p.m. ET. I'll also join Rush Hour with Danny Burke at 6:15 p.m. ET to offer a final NBA Draft update.
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The NBA Draft takes place tonight at 8 p.m. ET. Here are the latest developments across the market…
Late Banchero Steam: We've seen some fascinating back-and-forth movement on who will be selected with the top pick. For nearly the entire pre-draft process, Jabari Smith was the favorite. The Auburn big man opened at -105 and reached as high as -500 throughout the week. At BetMGM, Smith is receiving 33% of bets and 65% of money, the top smart money discrepancy of any player.
But then late Wednesday night we saw massive unexpected steam hit Paolo Banchero, with the Duke forward leapfrogging Smith to become a -190 favorite to be selected first overall at DraftKings. Banchero was roughly %plussign%2000 to go first overall just a week ago. He entered Wednesday as high as %plussign%300.
Here are the updated prices for the first five picks at DraftKings
1st Pick (Magic): Banchero (-190), Smith (%plussign%145), Chet Holmgren (%plussign%850)
2nd Pick (Thunder): Holmgren (-150), Smith (%plussign%120), Banchero (%plussign%650)
3rd Pick (Rockets): Smith (%plussign%125), Holmgren (%plussign%150), Banchero (%plussign%170)
4th Pick (Kings): Jaden Ivey (-175), Keegan Murray (%plussign%145), Dyson Daniels (%plussign%1000)
5th Pick (Pistons): Murray (%plussign%130), Bennedict Mathurin (%plussign%200), Ivey (%plussign%225)
Now let's discuss several MLB games receiving sharp action today…
12:10 p.m. ET: Colorado Rockies (30-39) at Miami Marlins (31-36)
The Marlins have taken the first two games of this series, winning the opener 9-8 as -125 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 7-4 as -195 home favorites. In this early afternoon series finale, the Rockies hand the ball to lefty Kyle Freeland (3-5, 4.46 ERA) and the Marlins counter with fellow southpaw Braxton Garrett (1-2, 4.85 ERA). This line opened with Miami listed as a short -115 home favorite and Colorado a -105 road dog. Pros have gotten down on Miami to complete the sweep, steaming the Marlins up from -115 to -135. Non-division home favorites are 247-177 (58%) this season. The Marlins are 17-10 as a favorite and 17-14 at home. The Rockies are 21-32 as a dog and 11-20 on the road. Miami's biggest advantage comes on the mound (3.93 team ERA vs 4.98 for Colorado). The Marlins are %plussign%17 in run differential. The Rockies are -61.
12:20 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (38-30) are Atlanta Braves (40-30)
This is the fourth and final game of the series, with the Braves holding a 2-1 edge through three games. Atlanta is coming off a 4-3 win last night as -140 home favorites. In this afternoon's series finale, the Giants start lefty Alex Wood (5-5, 4.32 ERA) and the Braves rebuttal with righty Kyle Wright (7-4, 2.94 ERA). This line opened with the Braves listed as a -145 home favorite and the Giants a %plussign%130 road dog. Sharps seem to be riding the hot hand, steaming the Braves up from -145 to -155. Atlanta is 33-18 as a favorite, 22-15 at home and 17-7 against lefties this season. The Braves have the edge in hitting (.247 vs .239) and on the mound (3.72 ERA vs 3.94 ERA). Atlanta is 17-3 over their last 20 games.
3:37 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (31-39) at Oakland Athletics (23-47)
The Mariners have won the first two games of this AL West series, winning the opener 8-2 as -125 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 9-0 as -135 road favorites. In this late afternoon series finale, Seattle taps lefty Robbie Ray (6-6, 4.25 ERA) and Oakland starts righty Frankie Montas (3-7, 3.53 ERA). This line opened with the Mariners listed as a modest -115 road favorite and the Athletics a %plussign%105 home dog. Pros seem to be saying "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" and have steamed Seattle up from -115 to -135. Road favorites are 242-144 (63%) this season. The Mariners also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7). Oakland is just 18-37 as a dog, 8-14 against lefties and 8-27 at home, the worst home record in MLB. Seattle is hitting .235 while Oakland sits at .209. The Mariners are -4 in run differential. The Athletics are -104.
