Tigers vs. Guardians
Technically, the MLB season began on March 18 when the Dodgers and Cubs played the two-game Tokyo Series. For Cleveland and Detroit, the season started on March 27. It took until September 28, the final day of the regular season, to decide a winner in the AL Central Division. And now Tigers vs. Guardians will be in Cleveland, as the Comeback Kids of the Cuyahoga erased the largest deficit for a division winner in MLB history.
The biggest deficit was 15.5 games on July 8, but the Guardians were also down 11 games after their loss on September 4. By the final week of the regular season, they controlled their own destiny for home-field advantage in the 3 vs. 6 series.
While it is a fascinating footnote and a proud moment for the Guardians organization and their fans, it doesn’t mean much now because all the focus is on the best-of-three Wild Card Round. Cleveland outlasted Detroit in the best-of-five ALDS last season, staying alive on a David Fry seventh-inning HR in Detroit in Game 4 and then they beat Tarik Skubal in Game 5.
The Tigers definitely limped through most of the second half, posting a 28-37 record with a 7-17 September. But, as bad and historic as that was, they get a clean slate now with the second season underway.
Let’s break down the three main phases of the game – offense, pitching, defense – and see if there’s an edge to be had.
Tigers vs. Guardians Wild Card Odds
Detroit Tigers -110 // Cleveland Guardians -110
Over 2.5 Games (-110/-110)
Odds as of 8:45 p.m. PT from DraftKings Sportsbook
Tigers vs. Guardians Wild Card Series Preview
Offense
Think about the softest pillow you’ve ever slept on. Now buy another one. Give one to a friend and hold on to the other. Now start swinging them at each other. That’s the battle between these two offenses. During the huge series in Cleveland during the final week of the regular season, the teams combined for 19 runs on 39 hits. There were 65 combined strikeouts.
While it is true that both teams have excellent pitching, it was also a microcosm of how bad these two lineups truly are. Detroit did fare better against Parker Messick, but it would be a surprise to see the southpaw get a start here, as the Tigers finished the season second in wOBA against LHP and 21st against RHP. Not surprisingly, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee held Detroit to three runs on nine hits with 17 strikeouts. So, in that respect, Cleveland’s starters, assuming a Game 3 starter would be Slade Cecconi or maybe a bullpen game, should match up well.
Neutralizing Detroit’s offense is paramount because Cleveland’s offense stinks. Like a can of dog droppings left out baking in the Las Vegas sun. The Guardians were 28th in wOBA against RHP at .295 and 27th in wOBA at .282 against LHP. As usual, the Guardians were last in Hard Hit% – a full 2% below anybody else (Padres) – and last in Barrel%.
The hilarious thing about #GuardsBall is that they had a .267 BABIP this season, 10 points lower than any other team. So, they just happen to get these bloopers and bleeders and duck snorts at just the right times. Unlike last season, they were an average team in K%. They were also around average in BB%.
Cleveland’s offense did limp towards league average overall in September, while the Tigers were bordering on a bottom-five unit. With two tough matchups for the Tigers lineup in Games 1 and 2 and Skubal for Cleveland in Game 1, I don’t think either offense has an advantage. I guess I would ever so slightly favor the Tigers because they have more power prowess.
Advantage: Tigers?
Pitching
When the seeding was still hanging in the balance for the AL Wild Card Round, I texted Jensen Lewis and said, “Am I crazy for wanting Tarik Skubal over Garrett Crochet?” The presumptive AL Cy Young Award winner for the second straight season or the guy with 255 strikeouts. Frankly, as a Guardians fan, I’d rather the enemy I know than the enemy I don’t. Cleveland has at least seen a lot of Skubal. And while they haven’t had a ton of success, and nobody really has, at least it’s potentially something.
As mentioned above, the Tigers struggle greatly with righties compared to lefties, so Williams and Bibee should be set up for success. That said, as somebody who has watched a lot of their starts this season and over the course of their careers, they can both have walk rate issues in big games. And these are absolutely big games.
Cleveland’s pitching staff collectively posted a 2.49 ERA with a 2.99 xERA and a 2.84 FIP in September over 231 innings of work. The next closest in each department were the Pirates (3.06), Dodgers (3.34), and Mariners (3.01) across the respective categories. The Tigers were a borderline bottom-five team in all of those areas, as their bullpen struggled in particular.
But, Jack Flaherty was good in his last regular season start and his 4.64 ERA isn’t emblematic of how he’s pitched this season, as he has a 3.85 FIP. He actually got very unlucky to post a 4.62 ERA in the second half, as he only allowed four homers in 60.1 innings. Flaherty actually told people that if he hadn’t been traded, the Tigers would have won the ALDS against the Guardians last season. And he’s probably right.
Because AJ Hinch can mix and match with guys like Troy Melton, Tyler Holton, and Brant Hurter, his pitching staff is actually well-equipped to throw off Cleveland’s platoon-based player usage. The Guardians had a platoon advantage in over 78% of their plate appearances, meaning a lefty vs. righty or a righty vs. a lefty. The depth of Detroit’s bullpen and the multi-inning capabilities make it tough for Cleveland to achieve what they want. And even with that high rate of platoon advantages, the Guardians were still last in the league in hits.
Because of Skubal and because of what the Tigers can MacGyver together in a potential Game 3 (or Game 2, if they want), I do give them the slight edge. Williams and Bibee should be fine, but it would be much more difficult for Cleveland in Game 3.
Advantage: Tigers
Defense
I’m grouping defense in with any other factors that are present. But, it is worth noting that the Guardians do have a defensive advantage. They were +5 in Outs Above Average and the Tigers were -5. More specifically, the Guardians have a huge advantage on the infield, where they are +19 Outs Above Average and the Tigers are -13. Ever since the Guardians brought back Brayan Rocchio and put him at second base with Gabriel Arias and his big arm at shortstop, Cleveland has been elite defensively.
I also think Comerica Park’s spacious outfield dimensions skew the OF numbers a bit, especially in a series that will be played entirely in Cleveland. The fact that all three games are day games is noteworthy because Progressive Field starts to play bigger as it cools down for the night games, but in the warmth of the day, the lake breeze is less evident. So we’ll see if Cleveland pitchers can keep the ball on the ground and play to that strength.
The extreme familiarity within this rivalry neutralizes a lot of other advantages. Expect a lot of close games here. The Tigers, while not a fast team, led the league in Extra Bases Taken Percentage (XBT%), while the Guardians were much closer to league average. Interestingly, Detroit has the third-lowest Oppo% in baseball, but their right-handed hitters do actively try to go to right field against Guardians pitching. That puts a lot of emphasis on CJ Kayfus, Jhonkensy Noel, Daniel Schneemann. and Johnathan Rodriguez.
Advantage: Guardians
Tigers vs. Guardians Prediction
Both of these teams had grueling, emotional months, but for very different reasons. Cleveland had everything go right, including all sorts of two-out run-scoring hits. To even get to this point, they had to treat every night like a playoff game. The Tigers obviously felt the pressure from behind and completely collapsed under the weight of it, but they get a fresh start now. And they’ll probably do so in a game where Skubal doesn’t hit anybody in the face with a 99 mph fastball.
Maybe this is the Cleveland cynic in me, but I do think that the Tigers win Game 1 with Skubal and ultimately find a way to win one of the next two. If nothing else, starting with them at -110 in a Skubal game is probably a good equity play since DraftKings had Detroit -150 for Game 1. They will obviously be way more than -110 for the series if Skubal does hold serve in the series opener.
Pick: Tigers -110
Other Wild Card Series Previews: Padres vs. Cubs | Red Sox vs. Yankees | Reds vs. Dodgers
