Tigers vs. Mariners
Well, this isn’t the preview that I wanted to write, as my Guardians went down in Game 3 of the Wild Card Round to the Tigers, but it sure is a more interesting matchup for anybody who isn’t a Cleveland fan. The reality is that Cleveland’s offense simply isn’t any good. At least the Tigers have Tarik Skubal and this Tigers vs. Mariners series will feature some very good pitching and one very good offense.
Detroit’s offensive shortcomings were on display most of the series against the Guardians, with the exception of one explosive inning in Game 3. The Mariners pitching staff had to love what they saw and we do have two very pitcher-friendly venues in this series, beginning with T-Mobile Park.
The Mariners were 51-30 in the friendly confines with a +47 run differential. They were 39-42 on the road and, while they scoured 62 more runs, they also allowed 84 more runs. They had a +25 run differential on the road, but obviously their pitchers had a harder time. As everybody knows, the Tigers blew a 15.5-game lead to cede the AL Central to Cleveland. Detroit was 7-17 in September and 28-37 in the second half, but won the deciding game when it mattered most.
The Tigers were 46-35 in Motown with a +44 run differential and 41-40 on the road with a +23 run differential, but a lot of that hard work was done early in the season when Detroit was 38-21 over the first 59 games with a +85 run differential.
In six head-to-head meetings, Seattle outscored Detroit 45-29 and took four of the six games. Seattle actually beat Tarik Skubal twice, too, as he allowed seven runs on 10 hits in 10.2 innings of work.
Let’s break down the three main phases of the game – offense, pitching, defense – and see if there’s an edge to be had.
Tigers vs. Mariners ALDS Odds
Detroit Tigers +140 // Seattle Mariners -165
Over/Under 3.5 Games (-350/+265) // Over/Under 4.5 Games (+155/-190)
Odds as of 3 p.m. PT from DraftKings Sportsbook on Friday, October 3
Tigers vs. Mariners ALDS Preview
Offense
Both teams do have handicaps on offense because of where they play. Comerica Park is 16th in HR Park Factor per Statcast’s 3-year rolling data. T-Mobile Park is 20th, but when you look at overall park factor, Comerica is 17th and T-Mobile is 28th. As it cools down in the Great Lakes region, Comerica’s spacious outfield plays even bigger. So we’ll see what the weather looks like for this series for Games 3 and 4, if a fourth game is required.
On the whole, the Mariners were 11th in wOBA at .321 and the Tigers were 12th at .317. Both teams had identical xwOBAs of .329, which would be based on contact quality and the types of batted balls. But, with the Mariners graded on such a steep curve due to their home park, they were actually third in wRC+ at 113, while the Tigers were 12th at 103.
Both teams strike out at an above average rate. The difference is that the Mariners hit 238 home runs, 40 more than the Tigers. Seattle also walked a little bit more, but the Mariners have been better at overcoming the strikeout problem by hitting for power. The two teams each hit 104 homers in their own ballparks, but obviously that shows how much more potent the Seattle lineup was away from home.
What is really interesting is that the Mariners only had a .274 BABIP at home and only batted .229, while the Tigers used the big yard to their advantage with a .257 BA thanks to a .309 BABIP. It’s especially odd because Seattle had the higher Hard Hit% by 2.0% overall. The teams had nearly identical Barrel% marks, but Seattle did make more quality contact. The two teams also had similar batted ball distributions with fly balls, though the Mariners did hit more grounders.
Clearly a player like Cal Raleigh had a huge impact in the home run department and he’ll be the guy to neutralize in that regard. The Tigers pitched around Jose Ramirez as often as they could in the Cleveland series and even had some plate appearances where he went 3-0 before basically getting himself out.
One other potential advantage for the Mariners is that they were third in steals with 161, while the Tigers, who are an outstanding first-to-third, second-to-home team, stole the fewest bases in the league with 61. Even though Detroit led the league in Extra Bases Taken Percentage (XBT%), they did it by running the bags well on hits, not by stealing them.
From a handedness standpoint, this does not look like a good matchup for the Tigers. Detroit was second in wOBA against LHP at .333 and second in wRC+ at 114. They’re going to get all right-handed starters here, much like they did against Cleveland. Slade Cecconi was pulled pretty early, but against Cecconi, Gavin Williams, and Tanner Bibee, the Tigers scored just four runs (only two earned) on 12 hits with 17 strikeouts against five walks in 13 innings.
Seattle was 12th in wOBA and sixth in wRC+ against LHP, while ninth in wOBA and third in wRC+ against righties. The Tigers were 19th in wRC+ at 98, meaning they were 2% below league average.They also had the third-highest K% in the league at 24.5% against righties.
Offensively, this series should set up well for the Mariners.
Advantage: Mariners
Pitching
So, like I just said, this should set up favorably for Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo, and anybody else to work in this series. The M’s do have two matchup lefties in the bullpen, but a lot of right-handed arms as well. It was a bit of a tough season for Gilbert, who was limited to 25 starts, and especially Kirby, who was limited to 23, but they’re healthy now and probably a lot fresher than they would have been otherwise.
Kirby had a rough September, so we’ll see how he fares. Gilbert, meanwhile, was outstanding and Woo has a career 2.62 ERA with a .188/.230/.332 slash against at T-Mobile Park, so he’ll be a tough customer to face.
For the Tigers, Skubal won’t be able to work until Game 2, so we’ll likely see the Troy Melton/Tyler Holton/Brant Hurter look in Game 1, as the blowout finish in Game 3 allowed the Tigers to mostly protect those guys. There is an off day mixed into the middle of the series that does give Detroit the opportunity to use Skubal twice in the series, as he’d be able to go on slightly abbreviated rest in Game 5 if needed.
Something that struck me about the Tigers bullpen is that they have a lot of extreme ground ball guys back there. Generally speaking, that’s a great thing, especially because of the home run suppression skills of guys like that and it could be extremely valuable in this series. The Tigers are -11 Outs Above Average around the infield, but the BA-xBA gap at T-Mobile Park was 16 points, with an expected BA of .256 and an actual BA of .240 on grounders. Only Wrigley Field and Dodger Stadium had a higher BA-xBA gap. That said, the Mariners are a terrible infield defense, but more on that later.
For the season, the Mariners had a 3.72 reliever ERA and the Tigers had a 4.05 reliever ERA. The Tigers did have one of the lowest K% marks among bullpens. Seattle also has more of a pitch-to-contact relief corps than most. Their 22.6% K% ranked 17th, while the Tigers were 29th at 20.1%. Since August 1, with all the Trade Deadline hullabaloo in the rearview, Seattle’s relief unit was ninth with a 24.7% K% and the Tigers were 25th at 20.4%.
Given that both lineups have a propensity to strike out, this could be a deciding factor late in games. Because of the presence of Skubal and the possibility of two starts from him, I give the Tigers the slight pitching edge, but Seattle should be in good shape here and Detroit’s offense is worse than theirs.
Advantage: Tigers slightly
Defense
Back to the defense because the Mariners do not play it well. Seattle finished the regular season -27 in Outs Above Average around the horn. As mentioned, the Tigers were -11 and they did have a few blunders against Cleveland. Detroit is also the better team in the outfield defensively.
So this is precisely what I mean about being able to record strikeouts. Any ball in play has the chance to be harmful. If the Mariners, who are the more potent offense, are able to also make more contact, then the Tigers have even more of an uphill climb.
Both Cal Raleigh and Dillon Dingler had similar pitch framing metrics this season. But, what I find very interesting is that Raleigh was better up in the zone than he was down in the zone. Dingler was better low in the zone. If I’m Seattle, my game plan is to attack with high fastballs against the Tigers, especially in two fly ball-friendly parks and where the velo plays up a little bit. Outside of Skubal, most of the Tigers’ arms work on a lower plane, so Dingler’s receiving skills lower in the zone are great. I think that could help suppress the run environment here.
Both catchers were above average at controlling the running game, with Dingler a bit better than Raleigh. But, the Tigers rarely steal, so it’s probably a wash. Dingler has the best throwing arm by speed in the league at 85.3 mph on average.
Advantage: Tigers
Tigers vs. Mariners ALDS Prediction
This is arguably the hardest series to bet in the Divisional Round. The Tigers look really interesting at +140 if you have Skubal as a road favorite in a decisive Game 5. Also, if you get two Skubal starts in a shortened series, it’s hard not to like their odds. That being said, Seattle clearly has the better offense between the two.
Personally, I’m not taking any position here, but I would lean towards the Mariners advancing. I just don’t think it’s worth paying -165 to do so. I do think if Seattle wins Game 1, there’s some potential equity in taking a Tigers series price with two Skubal starts in the next four games if necessary, but that will be baked into the price. We’ll just have to wait and see how Game 1 goes.
No pre-series bets; lean Mariners to win series
Other Division Series Previews: Cubs vs. Brewers | Yankees vs. Blue Jays | Dodgers vs. Phillies
