The 2026 MLB regular season is finally here. While bettors can’t wait to get the season started and bet on individual games daily, it’s also their last chance to invest in some futures opportunities as a way to build their bankroll. Most notably, this means betting on MLB win totals that provide a rooting interest all season long and, hopefully, a cashed ticket six-plus months from now.
With this in mind, let’s analyze three teams who have received the sharpest win total movement at DraftKings this offseason combined with a positive Fangraphs win total discrepancy.
Detroit Tigers Over 85.5 wins (-115)
The Tigers went 87-75 last season, finishing in second place in the AL Central and earning a postseason Wild Card bid. Detroit’s win total for this season opened at 84.5 wins (-110 both sides) and has since been bet up to 85.5 wins. Not only did the total jump up a full game, but the over 85.5 wins is also being juiced up to -115, signaling sharp over liability.
The Tigers play in one of the weaker divisions in baseball and also added to already stacked roster, particularly on the mound. Detroit returns 2-time Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal (13-6, 2.21 ERA in 2025) as their rotation ace (who is also the favorite to win the Cy Young yet against this season at +350) while adding two key free-agents in LHP Framber Valdez (13-11, 3.66 ERA) and RHP Justin Verlander (4-11, 3.85 ERA). The Tigers also solidified their bullpen by re-signing RHP Kyle Finnegan (4.37 ERA, 24 saves) and adding free agent closer Kenley Jansen (2.59 ERA, 29 saves).
Detroit returns virtually their entire starting lineup on offense from last season and also welcomes highly touted SS Kevin McGonigle, who is the AL Rookie of the Year favorite at +330.
Fangraphs projects Detroit to go 86-76 this season, providing actionable value on Detroit over 85.5 wins.
Pittsburgh Pirates Over 78.5 wins (-120)
The Pirates suffered another losing season in 2025, finishing 71-91 in the basement of the NL Central. However, there is reason for optimism this season. Pittsburgh’s 2026 win total opened at 75.5 with the under juiced to -115. However, following a flurry of offseason acquisitions, Pittsburgh’s win total has been steamed up three full games to 78.5. What’s more, the over 78.5 wins is also being juiced up to -120, signaling further over liability.
The Pirates return ace righty and reigning Cy Young winner Paul Skenes (10-10, 1.97 ERA) to anchor their rotation. Skenes is the favorite to win the NL Cy Young once again this season at +210. Pittsburgh also welcomes highly touted SP Bubba Chandler to the rotation, with Chandler boasting the 6th best Rookie of the Year odds at +1600.
However, the biggest improvement from 2025 to 2026 comes on offense. Pittsburgh was one of the lowest scoring teams last season and finally addressed their lack of pop, adding 2B Brandon Lowe (.256, 31 homers, 83 RBIs), RF Ryan O’Hearn (.281, 17 homers, 63 RBIs) and DH Marcell Ozuna (.232, 21 homers, 68 RBIs). Despite failing to crack the opening day lineup, SS Konnor Griffin still has the 2nd-best NL Rookie of the Year odds at +330.
Fangraphs projects Pittsburgh to go 83-79 this season, providing a significant edge on the over 78.5 win total.
Colorado Rockies Over 54.5 wins (-115)
The Rockies were by far the worst team in baseball last season, starting the season just 6-33 before finishing a putrid 43-119 overall. To put this in perspective, the second worst team in baseball (the Chicago White Sox) finished 60-102.
Believe it or not, we have seen sharp money take the Rockies over win total this season. Colorado’s win total opened the offseason and 52.5 (over -115) and has since jumped up to 54.5 (over -115). Not only has the market risen two full games, but the over 54.5 is also being juiced up (-115), signaling further liability on Colorado winning 55 games or more.
The public wants nothing to do with the Rockies over (and who can blame them). However, the fact that we’ve seen the total rise despite last year’s horrific performance indicates an ultimate buy-low contrarian play on Colorado to regress positively to the mean in 2026.
Colorado quietly improved their starting rotation, adding veteran RHP Michael Lorenzen (7-11, 4.64 ERA), LHP Jose Quintana (11-7, 3.96 ERA) and RHP Tomoyuki Sugano (10-10, 4.64 ERA). The Rockies also brought in 2B Willi Castro (.226, 11 homers and 33 RBIs).
Fangraphs projects Colorado to go 66-96 this season, offering a massive 11.5-game edge on the current over 54.5 win total.
