Today we have a loaded MLB slate with 15 games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Philadelphia Phillies (-175, 7.5)
The White Sox (3-15) just dropped two of three against the Royals but managed to win the series finale 2-1 as +140 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Phillies (11-8) just swept the Rockies, winning the finale 7-6 as -230 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, Chicago starts lefty Garrett Crochet (1-2, 3.57 ERA) and Philadelphia goes with righty Spencer Turnbull (1-0, 1.80 ERA). This line opened with the Phillies listed as a -165 home favorite and the White Sox a +150 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the chalk and have gotten down on Philadelphia, steaming the Phillies up from -165 to -175. Philadelphia is receiving 92% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, signaling heavy one-sided support from both sharps and the public. Philadelphia has the better bats, hitting .237 and with 21 home runs compared to just .196 with 10 home runs for Chicago. The Phillies are hitting .268 vs lefties, which ranks 7th best in MLB. The Phillies also have the betting pitching staff (team ERA 3.56 vs 4.46). Interleague favorites off a win, like the Phillies here, are 21-13 (62%) this season and 244-149 (62%) since the start of last season. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 452-275 (62%) since 2020. Philadelphia also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win.
6:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Cincinnati Reds (-135, 9)
The Angels (9-10) just split a four-game series against the Rays, losing the series finale 2-1 as +125 road favorites. On the other hand, the Reds (9-9) just got swept by the Mariners, dropping the finale 5-1 as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, Los Angeles hands the ball to lefty Tyler Anderson (2-1, 1.47 ERA) and Cincinnati counters with fellow southpaw Nick Lodolo (1-0, 0.00 ERA). This line opened with the Reds listed as a -125 home favorite and the Angels +105 road dog. Wiseguys have pounced on the Reds to get back on track at home, steaming Cincinnati up from -125 to -135. The Reds are receiving roughly 65% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a ten-cent steam move. Favorites off a loss, like the Reds here, are 76-41 (65%) this season with a 10% ROI. Cincinnati enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage as the Reds were off yesterday while the Angels played the Rays and now have to travel. The Reds also have value as a Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Cincinnati is +10 in run differential. Los Angeles is -6.
7:05 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees (-175, 8.5)
The Rays (11-9) just split a four-game series against the Angels, winning the finale 2-1 as -145 home favorites. On the flip side, the Yankees (13-6) just dropped two of three against the Jays but avoided the sweep with a 6-4 win in the series finale, cashing as +100 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, Tampa Bay starts lefty Tyler Alexander (1-0, 6.46 ERA) and New York goes with righty Clarke Schmidt (1-0, 3.68 ERA). This line opened the Yankees listed as a -155 home favorite and the Rays a +130 road dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on New York, steaming the Bronx Bombers up from -155 to -175. New York is receiving roughly 80% of moneyline bets and dollars, signaling heavy support from both Pros and Joes. New York has a “rest vs tired” advantage as the Yankees were off yesterday while the Rays hosted the Angels and now have to travel north. New York has the better bets (hitting .247 vs .241) and the betting pitching staff (ERA 3.11 vs 4.74). New York is hitting .252 vs lefties, which ranks 10th in MLB. Tampa Bay has the worst bullpen ERA in MLB (6.00). The Yankees have the 4th best bullpen ERA at 2.63. New York is +20 in run differential. Tampa Bay is -17.
