Today we have a loaded slate of MLB action with 14-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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1:10 p.m. ET: Kansas City Royals at Detroit Tigers (-120, 7.5)
The Royals (16-10) just took three of four from the Blue Jays, winning 2-1 yesterday as +100 home dogs. Similarly, the Tigers (14-11) just took two of three from the Rays but dropped the final game 7-5 as -115 road favorites. In this afternoon’s series opener, the Royals start righty Seth Lugo (3-1, 2.03 ERA) and the Tigers go with fellow righty Reese Olson (0-3, 3.80 ERA). This line opened with Detroit listed as a -110 home favorite and Kansas City a +100 road dog. The public sees two evenly matched teams and is grabbing the plus money with the Royals. However, despite 60% of moneyline bets backing Kansas City we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Detroit (-110 to -120). This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Tigers, with pros backing the unpopular home favorite. Favorites off a loss, like Detroit here, are 100-59 (63%) this season with a 7% ROI. Sweet spot short favorites -130 or less are 94-73 (56%) with a 4% ROI. The Tigers also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as they were off yesterday while the Royals played the Blue Jays in Kansas City. Favorites who has the previous day off vs teams who played the previous day are 7-3 (70%) this season with a 14% ROI. Detroit has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. Pros have also hit the under, dropping the total from 8 to 7.5. The under is receiving 63% of bets and 76% of dollars, a sharp bet discrepancy.
8:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-125, 8.5) at Milwaukee Brewers
The Yankees (17-9) just split a four-game series against the Athletics, dropping the finale 3-1 as -275 home favorites. Similarly, the Brewers (16-8) just split a four-game series against the Reds, winning the finale 7-5 as -140 road favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, New York hands the ball to righty Luis Gil (1-1, 2.75 ERA) and Milwaukee counters with fellow righty Colin Rea (2-0, 2.08 ERA). This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -120 road favorite and the Brewers a +110 home dog. The public is split and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen the Yankees rise from -120 to -125. This signals that the bigger, sharper wagers are laying the modest chalk with the Bronx Bombers. The Yankees are only receiving 52% of moneyline bets but 64% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. New York has a better pitching staff, sporting a team ERA of 2.95 vs 3.42. Favorites off a loss, like the Yankees here, are 100-59 (63%) this season with a 7% ROI. Road favorites are 82-48 (63%) with an 11% ROI. Sweet spot short favorites -130 or less are 94-73 (56%) with a 4% ROI. New York also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win.
10:15 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants (-145, 8.5)
The Pirates (13-13) just split a four-game series against the Brewers, losing the series finale 7-5 as +120 home dogs. On the other hand, the Giants (12-14) just took two of three against the Mets but lost the series finale 8-2 as -105 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates start righty Quinn Priester (0-1, 8.31 ERA) and the Giants tap lefty Kyle Harrison (2-1, 5.00 ERA). This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -135 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +120 road dog. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Giants, steaming San Francisco up from -135 to -145. The Giants are receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-way support from both sharps and the betting public. Favorites off a loss, like the Giants here, are 100-59 (63%) this season with a 7% ROI. San Francisco also enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage as the Giants were off yesterday while the Pirates played the Brewers in Milwaukee. Favorites who has the previous day off vs teams who played the previous day are 7-3 (70%) this season with a 14% ROI. Sharps also seem to be leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 8. The under is 57-34 (63%) at Oracle Park since the start of last season (including 8-4 to start this season), making it the top “under” stadium in MLB.
