Today the work week wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Boston Red Sox (-130, 9.5)
The Diamondbacks (72-56) just swept the Marlins, winning Wednesday’s series finale 10-8 as -165 road favorites. Similarly, the Red Sox (67-59) just took two of three against the Astros, winning Wednesday’s series finale 4-1 as +115 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Diamondbacks send out righty Ryne Nelson (8-6, 4.35 ERA) and the Red Sox turn to fellow righty Brayan Bello (11-5, 4.80 ERA). This line opened with Boston listed as a -130 home favorite and Arizona a +115 road dog. The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with the Red Sox at home. However, despite receiving 59% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Boston remain stagnant at -130. Some shops have even dipped toward -125. This signals a bit of a sharp line freeze on Arizona, with sportsbooks reluctant to move the number for fear of giving out more plus money to contrarian Diamondbacks backers. Arizona is receiving 41% of moneyline bets but 55% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Arizona has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Diamondbacks are 35-30 on the road. The Red Sox are 29-32 at home. Bello has a 5.28 ERA at home compared to 4.39 on the road. Nelson has a 3.86 ERA on the road compared to 4.95 at home.
8:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Minnesota Twins (-145, 8.5)
The Cardinals (63-64) just took two of three against the Brewers, winning yesterday’s series finale 3-0 as +110 home dogs. Meanwhile, the Twins (71-56) just dropped two of three against the Padres but avoided the sweep with an 11-4 win in Wednesday’s series finale, cashing as +105 road dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Cardinals hand the ball to righty Andre Pallante (5-6, 4.07 ERA) and the Twins counter with fellow righty David Festa (2-2, 4.96 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -135 home favorite and St. Louis a +125 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Twins laying modest home chalk, steaming Minnesota up from -135 to -145. The Twins are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Home Interleague favorites who made the playoffs the previous year are 104-61 (63%) with a 4% ROI this season. Minnesota is 57-32 (64%) with an 8% ROI as a favorite, the third best chalk team in MLB. The Twins are 39-17 (70%) with a 14% ROI as a favorite against a sub .500 team. Minnesota enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage as the Twins were off yesterday while the Cardinals played the Brewers. Minnesota has the better bats, hitting .254 with 156 homers and 624 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .246 with 133 homers and 523 runs scored. The Twins are 36-24 at home. The Cardinals are 29-34 on the road. Festa has a 2.03 ERA in three August starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 13.1 innings pitched. St. Louis is 1-5 in Pallante’s last six starts.
8:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Kansas City Royals (-140, 9)
The Phillies (74-53) just dropped two of three against the Braves, losing 3-2 yesterday as +105 road dogs. On the other hand, the Royals (71-56) just took two of three against the Angels, winning Wednesday’s series finale 3-0 as -185 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Phillies start righty Taijuan Walker (3-4, 5.69 ERA) and the Royals go with fellow righty Michael Wacha (10-6, 3.33 ERA). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -135 home favorite and Philadelphia a +115 road dog. The public is relatively split and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this public indecision we’ve seen the Royals creep up from -135 to -140. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, we know based upon this 5-cent adjustment that pros have laid the chalk with Kansas City at home. The Royals are receiving 54% of moneyline bets but 74% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Royals are 42-21 (67%) with a 13% ROI as a favorite, the second best chalk team in MLB. Kansas City enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage as they were off yesterday while Philadelphia played in Atlanta. Walker has a 6.23 ERA in two August starts. The Phillies are 0-7 in his last seven starts. Wacha has a 1.89 ERA in three August starts. The Royals are 8-1 in his last nine starts. Philadelphia is 5-5 over their last 10 games, hitting .259 with a 4.14 ERA. Kansas City is 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .303 with a 3.78 ERA.
