Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (-120, 7.5) at Pittsburgh Pirates
The Pirates (50-66) won last night’s series opener 7-0, cruising as -165 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Reds (60-56) hand the ball to righty Chase Burns (0-3, 6.04 ERA) and the Pirates turn to fellow righty Mitch Keller (5-10, 3.89 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -120 home favorite and Cincinnati a +100 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Reds to bounce back with a win, steaming the Reds from a +100 road dog to -120 road favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Cincinnati.
At DraftKings, the Reds are taking in 62% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cincinnati is receiving 63% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road team.
Cincinnati has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Reds have a notable edge at the plate, hitting .246 with 117 homers and 521 runs scored compared to the Pirates hitting .233 with only 83 homers and 414 runs scored.
Cincinnati is hitting .254 against righties (8th best in MLB). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is hitting .237 against righties (26th).
7:15 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins (-130, 8) at Atlanta Braves
The Braves (48-66) came from behind to win last night’s series opener 8-6, cashing as +115 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Marlins (56-58) send out righty Edward Cabrera (5-5, 3.24 ERA) and the Braves go with fellow righty Bryce Elder (4-8, 6.03 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -115 road favorite and Atlanta a -105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Marlins laying short chalk, steaming Miami up from -115 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Marlins are receiving 66% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy indicating slight public support but also heavy sharp action in favor of the road chalk.
Miami has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Cabrera has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 13 of his last 15 starts. On the other hand, Elder has given up 3 earned runs or more in 6 of his last 8 starts.
The Marlins have the more productive bats, hitting .253 with 492 runs scored compared to the Braves hitting .242 with 276 runs scored.
Miami is 6-4 over their last ten games with a 4.70 team ERA. Atlanta is 4-6 over their last ten games with a 5.36 team ERA.
The Marlins are 28-27 on the road. The Braves are 27-29 at home.
8:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers (-140, 7.5)
The Mets (63-52) just got swept by the Guardians, losing the series finale 4-1 as -180 home favorites. On the other hand, the Brewers (70-44) just swept the Braves, winning the series finale 5-4 as +110 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mets go with righty Kodai Senga (7-3, 2.31 ERA) and the Brewers tap fellow righty Brandon Woodruff (3-0, 2.22 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -130 home favorite and New York a +110 road dog.
Sharps are riding the red-hot Brewers, who have won six straight, steaming Milwaukee up from -130 to -140.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are taking in 70% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Milwaukee is receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Milwaukee has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win. The Brewers also have betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the team who is expected to win.
The Brewers have the more productive bats, hitting .257 with 570 runs scored compared to the Mets hitting .239 with 501 runs scored.
Milwaukee is hitting .253 against righties (9th best in MLB). New York is hitting .244 against righties (21st).
Woodruff has only allowed 7 earned runs in 28.1 innings pitched since returning from the injured list. The Brewers are 5-0 in his five starts.
Milwaukee is 9-1 over their last ten games, hitting .323 with a team ERA of 3.90. On the other hand, the Mets are 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .204 with a 5.25 team ERA.
The Brewers are 36-20 at home. The Mets are 25-31 on the road.
