Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers (-115, 9)
The Blue Jays (61-42) dominated last night’s series opener 11-4, cruising as +120 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays hand the ball to righty Jose Berrios (6-4, 3.87 ERA) and the Tigers (60-44) counter with fellow right Keider Montero (4-2, 4.28 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -115 road favorite and Detroit a -105 home dog.
The public is all over the red-hot Blue Jays, who are 6-1 since the All-Star Break.
However, despite 67% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing Toronto, we’ve actually seen this line flip toward the Tigers -105 to -115. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of Detroit, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At Circa, the Tigers are only taking in 26% of moneyline bets but a notable 57% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of Vegas pros banking on the Tigers to get back on track after losing four straight games.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 206-111 (65%) with a 3% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs in the previous season in the second game of a series who lost the opener and are receiving at least 5-cents of steam in their favor are 22-10 (69%) with a 10% ROI this season.
The Tigers are 27-15 (64%) as a home favorite and 23-8 (74%) with a 16% ROI as a home favorite receiving at least 5-cents of steam in their favor.
Montero is 3-0 with a 3.89 ERA at home this season.
Meanwhile, Berrios has a 7.11 ERA in four July starts, allowing 15 earned runs in 19 innings pitched.
7:10 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds (-110, 9.5)
The Rays (53-50) just dropped two of three against the White Sox, losing the series finale 11-9 as -225 home favorites. Similarly, the Reds (53-50) just lost two of three against the Nationals but avoided the sweep by winning the series finale 5-0 as -130 road favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Rays send out righty Zack Littell (8-7, 3.53 ERA) and the Reds go with fellow righty Nick Martinez (8-9, 4.73 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -120 road favorite and Cincinnati a +100 home dog.
The public is leaning toward laying the short chalk with the Rays. However, despite Tampa Bay receiving 55% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the line fall away from the Rays (-120 to -110) and toward the Reds (+100 to -110). Essentially, smart money has sided with Cincinnati, triggering “dog to pick’em” reverse line movement in favor of the Reds.
At DraftKings, the Reds are receiving 45% of moneyline bets but 56% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers nationally siding with the home team.
When both teams are coming off a day off, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction is 84-56 (60%) with a 5% ROI this season. If the team is receiving 5-cents or more line movement in their favor they improve to 77-43 (64%) with a 10% ROI.
The Reds have played better as of late, going 6-4 and hitting .266 with a 3.10 team ERA over their last ten games. On the other hand, the Rays are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting only .231 with a 4.49 team ERA.
The Reds are 5-1 in Martinez’s last six starts.
8:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Minnesota Twins (-170, 8.5)
The Nationals (41-61) just took two of three against the Reds but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 5-0 as +110 home dogs. Similarly, the Twins (49-53) just dropped two of three against the Dodgers, losing the series finale 4-3 as +185 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Nationals start lefty MacKenzie Gore (4-9, 3.59 ERA) and the Twins counter with righty Zebby Matthews (1-2, 6.26 ERA).
This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -135 home favorite and Washington a +115 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Twins, steaming Minnesota up from -135 to -170.
At Circa, the Twins are taking in 60% of moneyline bets but a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp Vegas money siding with the home team.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the team receiving at least 10-cents of steam in their favor is 42-24 (64%) with a 10% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a day off, the favorite is 94-52 (64%) with a 5% ROI. When both teams missed the playoffs the previous season, the Interleague home favorite is 69-38 (65%) with a 6% ROI.
Gore has a 7.24 ERA in three July starts, allowing 11 earned runs in 13.2 innings pitched.
Minnesota has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 4.25 compared to 5.74 for Washington, dead last in MLB.
The Twins are 28-20 at home. The Nationals are 20-30 on the road.
Minnesota is 7-1 (88%) with a 31% ROI as a home favorite -170 or more.
