Happy 4th of July! Today we celebrate Independence Day with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-125, 8) at Miami Marlins
The Brewers (48-39) just dropped two of three against the Mets, falling 3-2 yesterday as +130 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Marlins (39-46) just took two of three against the Twins, winning 4-1 yesterday as -105 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Quinn Priester (6-2, 3.35 ERA) and the Marlins counter with fellow righty Sandy Alcantara (4-8, 6.98 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -115 road favorite and Miami a -105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Brew Crew laying short chalk, steaming Milwaukee up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are receiving 71% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Milwaukee is taking in 73% of moneyline bets and a whopping 95% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 112-75 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving at least 5-cents of line movement in their direction are 235-126 (65%) with a 2% ROI. The Brewers are 27-15 (64%) with an 8% ROI as a favorite, the 3rd best chalk team in MLB.
Milwaukee has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Brewers have the more explosive bats, hitting 85 homers and scoring 409 runs compared to the Marlins hitting 75 homers and scoring 360 runs.
Priester posted a 1.98 ERA in five June starts, with the Brewers going a perfect 5-0 in those games. On the other hand, Alcantara posted a 4.34 ERA in five June starts. He is 3-4 with a 5.03 ERA at home.
7:10 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-120, 8) at Cleveland Guardians
The Tigers (54-34) just dropped two of three against the Nationals, falling 11-7 yesterday as -140 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Guardians (40-45) just got swept by the Cubs, losing 1-0 in extra innings yesterday as +115 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers send out righty Reese Olson (4-3, 2.96 ERA) and the Guardians tap fellow righty Slade Cecconi (3-3, 3.64 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Tigers at a coin flip price, steaming Detroit up from -110 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Tigers are taking in 79% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Detroit is receiving 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 92% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers out in Vegas backing the road team.
The Tigers are 40-20 (67%) with a 6% ROI as a favorite this season, the 4th best chalk team in MLB. Detroit is also 22-10 (69%) with an 18% ROI following a loss, the 4th best “bounce back” team in MLB.
The Tigers have the better bats, hitting .256 with 111 homers and 446 runs scored compared to the Guardians only hitting .225 with 84 homers and 309 runs scored. The Tigers are hitting .255 on the road (7th best in MLB) and .251 against righties (12th). The Guardians are hitting .221 at home (30th) and .227 against righties (29th).
Detroit has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Cecconi is 0-1 with a 5.79 ERA at home this season.
Detroit is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .297 with a 3.99 team ERA. Conversely, Cleveland is 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting .188 with a 4.84 team ERA.
9:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers (-180, 9.5)
The Astros (52-35) just took two of three against the Rockies but failed to complete the sweep, losing 7-6 yesterday as -190 road favorites. On the other hand, the Dodgers (56-32) just swept the White Sox, winning 6-2 yesterday as -275 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Astros go with righty Lance McCullers Jr. (1-3, 6.61 ERA) and the Dodgers start fellow righty Ben Casparius (6-2, 3.97 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -175 home favorite and Houston a +155 road dog.
Wiseguys aren’t deterred by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -175 to -185.
At Circa, the Dodgers are only receiving 57% of moneyline bets but a hefty 79% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split indicating slight public support but also respected smart money backing the Dodgers out in Vegas.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season receiving line movement in their favor are 185-89 (68%) with a 7% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the postseason are 89-43 (67%) with a 13% ROI.
The Dodgers are 33-14 (70%) with a 5% ROI at home. When playing a team who made the playoffs the previous season, the Dodgers are 13-4 (77%) with a 26% ROI at home.
Home favorites on the 4th of July have gone 118-63 (65%) with a 9% ROI since 2005.
Los Angeles has the superior offense, hitting 138 homers and scoring 494 runs compared to Houston hitting 93 homers and scoring 367 runs.
Casparius is 4-0 at home this season. On the flip side, McCullers posted a 7.53 ERA in three June starts.
