Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15-game slate of MLB action. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers (-125, 8.5)
The Twins (39-42) just split a four-game series against the Mariners, winning yesterday’s series finale 10-1 as -135 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Tigers (51-31) just took two of three against the Athletics, cruising 8-0 yesterday as -155 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Twins hand the ball to righty David Festa (1-2, 6.39 ERA) and the Tigers counter with fellow righty Sawyer Gipson-Long (0-0, 4.58 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -115 home favorite and Minnesota a -105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Tigers laying short chalk at home, steaming Detroit up from -115 to -125.
At Circa, the Tigers are receiving 83% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the wiseguys out in Vegas backing the home team.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season who are also receiving line movement in their direction are 172-80 (68%) with an 8% ROI this season.
The Tigers are 23-9 (72%) with a 13% ROI as a home favorite, the 4th best home favorite record in MLB. Detroit is also 34-16 (68%) with a 16% ROI against teams who missed the playoffs the previous season.
The Tigers have the more explosive offense, hitting .254 with 100 homers and 410 runs scored compared to the Twins hitting .243 with 93 homers and 347 runs scored.
Detroit has played better as of late, hitting .272 with a 4.15 ERA over their last ten games compared to Minnesota hitting .251 with a 6.55 ERA.
Gipson-Long has a 3.00 ERA at home compared to 4.91 on the road.
Meanwhile, Festa has a 10.00 ERA in four June starts, allowing 20 earned runs in 18 innings pitched. He has a 12.27 ERA on the road compared to 4.56 at home.
Detroit is 28-13 at home. Minnesota is 17-25 on the road.
7:10 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals (-130, 8.5) at Cleveland Guardians
The Cardinals (44-38) just split a four-game series against the Cubs, dropping the series finale 3-0 yesterday as +115 home dogs. Conversely, the Guardians (40-39) just lost two of three against the Blue Jays, falling 6-0 yesterday as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Cardinals tap righty Sonny Gray (7-2, 3.72 ERA) and the Guardians start fellow righty Luis Ortiz (4-8, 4.30 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -125 road favorite and Cleveland a +105 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Cardinals to take the opener, driving St. Louis up from -125 to -130.
At Circa, the Cardinals are receiving 75% of moneyline bets but a lopsided 98% of moneyline dollars, a sizable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further validation of the respected Vegas wagers backing the road chalk.
Road favorites coming off a shutout loss, like the Cardinals here, are 21-9 (70%) with a 21% ROI this season. St. Louis also has betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Cardinals have the better offense, hitting .253 with 382 runs scored compared to the Guardians hitting .229 with only 297 runs scored.
St. Louis is hitting .261 against righties, 3rd best in MLB. Cleveland is hitting .231 against righties, ranking 27th.
The Cardinals are 12-3 in Gray’s 15 starts this season. Meanwhile, the Guardians are 6-9 in Ortiz’s 15 starts.
7:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves (-175, 9.5)
The Phillies (47-34) just got swept by the Astros, falling 2-1 yesterday as +130 road dogs. On the other hand, the Braves (37-43) just split a four-game series against the Mets, losing 4-0 yesterday as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies send out righty Mick Abel (2-1, 3.47 ERA) and the Braves turn to fellow righty Bryce Elder (2-4, 4.77 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -140 home favorite and Philadelphia a +120 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Braves at a modest chalk price, steaming Atlanta up from -140 to -175.
At Circa, the Braves are taking in 60% of moneyline bets and a hefty 97% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers out in the desert backing the home chalk.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season who are also receiving line movement in their direction are 172-80 (68%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 85-40 (68%) with a 14% ROI.
Home favorites -175 or more who made the playoffs the previous season and are also receiving line movement in their favor are 81-27 (75%) with a 7% ROI.
The Braves are hitting .257 at home this season, 10th best in MLB. The Phillies are hitting .235 on the road, ranking 21st.
Atlanta is 12-5 (71%) as a home favorite when priced -175 or higher.
