Today we cruise into the weekend with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:07 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays (-110, 8.5)
The Blue Jays (37-43) won Thursday night’s series opener 9-2, cashing as +110 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Yankees (52-31) go with righty Marcus Stroman (7-3, 3.15 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (4-7, 4.00 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -120 road favorite and Toronto a +100 home dog. The public says the Yankees are the far better team and there’s no way they lose again tonight. However, despite receiving 79% of moneyline bets we’ve seen New York fall from -120 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement Toronto, with the line moving in favor of the Blue Jays (+100 to -110) despite being the unpopular bet. In other words, sharp Toronto money has moved this game to a pick’em. The Blue Jays are only receiving 21% of moneyline bets, making them one of the top contrarian plays of the day. The Yankees are just 2-8 over their last ten games, hitting only .199 with a 7.45 team ERA and being outscored by 40 runs. The Blue Jays are just 3-7 over their last ten games, but have hit .260 with a 5.13 ERA and only been outscored by seven runs. Sharps are also leaning under, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling a possible fall down to 8. The under is 64-50 (56%) with an 8% ROI at Rogers Centre since the start of last season.
9:40 p.m. ET: Oakland Athletics at Arizona Diamondbacks (-170, 9)
The Athletics (29-54) just got swept by the Angels, losing Wednesday’s series finale 5-2 as +120 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks (39-42) just dropped two of three against the Twins, losing 13-6 yesterday as -105 home dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Athletics start lefty JP Sears (4-7, 5.04 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to righty Slade Cecconi (2-6, 5.74 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -155 home favorite and Oakland a +140 road dog. Sharps aren’t scared off by the relatively expensive chalk and have gotten down hard on the Snakes, steaming Arizona up from -155 to -170. The Diamondbacks are receiving 87% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars, indicating heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Arizona has the better bats, hitting .250 with 382 runs scored compared to Oakland hitting .221 with 296 runs scored. The Diamondbacks are hitting .272 against lefties this season, 3rd-best in MLB. Arizona also has value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. When two sub .500 teams face off, the favorite is 168-114 (60%) with a 2% ROI this season. Sears has a 9.18 ERA in four June starts (all losses), allowing 17 earned runs in 16.2 innings pitched. Oakland is 11-31 on the road, the 2nd-worst road record in MLB ahead of only the White Sox (8-33).
10:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Francisco Giants (-112, 7.5)
The Dodgers (51-31) just swept a three-game series against the White Sox, winning Wednesday’s series finale 4-0 as -165 road favorites. Similarly, the Giants (39-43) just took three of four against the Cubs but failed to earn the sweep by losing 5-3 in extra innings yesterday as a -110 home pick’em. In tonight’s series opener, the Dodgers hand the ball to righty Landon Knack (1-1, 2.10 ERA) and the Giants send out fellow righty Logan Webb (6-6, 3.16 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 road favorite and San Francisco a +105 home dog. The public can’t believe the mighty Dodgers are laying such a short number and they’re rushing to the book to bet Los Angeles. However, despite the Dodgers receiving 86% of moneyline bets we’ve seen this line completely flip away from Los Angeles (-115 to -108) and toward San Francisco (+105 to -112). Essentially, the Giants are receiving sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement despite receiving only 14% of moneyline bets. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 260-167 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. The Giants also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win. Sharps also seem to be leaning under, as the 7.5 total is juiced -115 to the under despite 73% of bets taking the over. Webb has a 2.06 ERA at home compared to 4.08 on the road.
