Today we wrap up the work week with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
| Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book out in August. >>Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up. |
|---|
Top MLB Resources:
7:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-120, 9.5) at Cincinnati Reds
The Diamondbacks (31-31) just swept the Braves, coming from behind to win yesterday’s series finale 11-10 as +130 road dogs. On the other hand, the Reds (30-33) just dropped two of three against the Brewers, dropping the series finale 9-1 as -135 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Diamondbacks start lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (1-3, 7.05 ERA) and the Reds turn to fellow southpaw Nick Lodolo (4-4, 3.10 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -115 home favorite and Arizona a -105 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Diamondbacks, steaming Arizona from a -105 road dog to a -120 road favorite. In other words, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Snakes.
At Circa, Arizona is only receiving 36% of moneyline bets but a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing the Diamondbacks out in Vegas.
Arizona has the more explosive bats, hitting .255 with 87 homers and 317 runs scored compared to Cincinnati hitting .243 with 64 homers and 280 runs scored.
The Diamondbacks are hitting .245 against lefties (11th best in MLB) while the Reds are only hitting .213 (27th).
Additionally, Arizona is hitting .251 on the road (7th) while the Reds are hitting .244 at home (21st).
Lodolo has a 6.15 ERA at home compared to 1.25 on the road. The Reds are 1-5 in his last six starts.
Arizona is 16-14 on the road. Cincinnati is 15-16 at home.
8:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at St. Louis Cardinals (-120, 8.5)
The Dodgers (38-25) just split a four-game series against the Mets but won the series finale 6-5 yesterday, cashing as -135 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cardinals (34-28) just dropped two of three against the Royals, splitting yesterday’s doubleheader.
In tonight’s series opener, the Dodgers send out lefty Justin Wrobleski (1-1, 8.00 ERA) and the Cardinals tap righty Sonny Gray (6-1, 3.65 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -110 odds.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to back the Dodgers at a coin-flip price.
However, despite 73% of moneyline bets backing Los Angeles at DraftKings, we’ve actually seen this line move further in favor of St. Louis -110 to -120. Some shops are even inching up toward -125. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the unpopular home chalk Cardinals.
At DraftKings, the Cardinals are only receiving 27% of moneyline bets but 46% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
Gray is 4-1 with a 3.23 ERA at home this season. St. Louis is 10-2 in his 12 starts overall.
St. Louis is hitting .278 at home this season (2nd best in MLB) while Los Angeles is hitting .247 on the road (11th).
The Cardinals are 20-10 (67%) at home, tied for the 6th best home record in MLB. St. Louis is 12-3 (80%) at home when receiving 5-cents of line movement or more in their favor.
10:05 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-130, 10.5) at Athletics
The Orioles (25-36) just swept the Mariners, winning yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as +130 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Athletics (24-40) just dropped three of four against the Twins but avoided the sweep with a 14-3 win yesterday, cashing as +160 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Dean Kremer (5-5, 4.70 ERA) and the Athletics counter with lefty JP Sears (4-5, 5.05 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -125 road favorite and the Athletics a +105 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Orioles, as Baltimore has ticked up from -125 to -130. Some shops are even approaching -135.
At DraftKings, the Orioles are receiving 68% of moneyline bets and 70% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Orioles are taking in 80% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy Pro and Joe support in favor of the road chalk.
Baltimore has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Kremer pitched well in the month of May, posting a 2.72 ERA in six starts allowing only 11 earned runs in 36.1 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Sears has a 5.68 ERA at home compared to 4.78 on the road.
The Orioles are 8-2 over their last ten games sporting a team ERA of 2.60. On the other hand, the Athletics are 1-9 over their last ten games with an ERA of 8.68.
