Today the work week wraps up with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Chicago Cubs (-225, 11.5)
The White Sox (14-30) just took two of three against the Reds but failed to complete the sweep, losing the series finale 7-1 as +205 road dogs. Similarly, the Cubs (25-19) just took two of three against the Marlins but lost the series finale 3-1 as -220 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s Interleague series opener, the White Sox hand the ball to righty Shane Smith (1-2, 2.08 ERA) and the Cubs turn to fellow righty Cade Horton (1-0, 6.75 ERA).
This line opened with the Cubs listed as a -205 home favorite and the White Sox a +175 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Cubs, steaming the home favorite up from -205 to -225.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in 87% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cubs are receiving 50% of moneyline bets and 73% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers out in Vegas playing the Cubs to earn a victory at Wrigley.
Home favorites -200 or more are 73-19 (79%) with an 11% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 31-13 (71%) with a 14% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 77-43 (64%) with a 6% ROI. The Cubs are 12-4 (75%) following a loss this season, the best “bounce back” team in baseball.
The Cubs enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as they were off yesterday while the White Sox played the Reds in Cincinnati and now must travel to Chicago. Rested favorites coming off a day off are 66-33 (67%) with a 9% ROI this season.
The Cubs have the better offense, hitting .250 with 63 homers and 244 runs scored compared to the White Sox hitting only .214 with 32 homers and 149 runs scored. The Cubs are hitting .245 against righties (16th) and the White Sox are only hitting .211 (30th).
The Cubs are 12-10 at home this season. The White Sox are 5-18 on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Texas Rangers (-190, 8)
The Rangers (24-21) won last night’s series opener 1-0, taking care of business as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Astros (22-21) send out righty Lance McCullers (0-1, 15.75 ERA) and the Rangers rebuttal with fellow righty Nathan Eovaldi (4-2, 1.78 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as a -170 home favorite and Houston a +150 road dog.
At Circa, the public is largely split and doesn’t know which side to take. However, despite this even bet count we’ve seen the Rangers get steamed up from -170 to -190. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are split. So, based on this big 20-cent steam move we can infer that the respected wiseguy wagers are backing the Rangers at home.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record, like the Rangers here, are 104-52 (67%) with a 6% ROI this season. Home favorites -150 or more are 137-60 (70%) with a 4% ROI. Home favorites in the opening game of new series are 86-41 (68%) with a 9% ROI.
Texas has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rangers are 16-8 at home this season. The Astros are 7-12 on the road.
McCullers just got lit up in his last start, allowing 7 earned runs in only one-third of an inning pitched against the Reds. Meanwhile, Eovaldi has a 0.69 ERA in two May starts, giving up only one earned run in 13 innings pitched.
10:15 p.m. ET: Athletics at San Francisco Giants (-200, 7)
The Athletics (22-22) just dropped two of three against the Dodgers, falling 19-2 yesterday as +215 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Giants (25-19) just lost two of three against the Diamondbacks, dropping the series finale 8-7 as -105 home dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Athletics turn to lefty JP Sears (4-2, 2.80 ERA) and the Giants go with righty Logan Webb (4-3, 2.60 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -170 home favorite and the Athletics are +150 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Giants, steaming San Francisco up from -170 to -200.
At Circa, the Giants are taking in only 56% of moneyline bets but a whopping 84% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites -200 or more are 73-19 (79%) with an 11% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 31-13 (71%) with a 14% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 77-43 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites in the opening game of new series are 86-41 (68%) with a 9% ROI.
The Giants enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage as San Francisco was off yesterday while the Athletics played the Dodgers and now must travel to San Francisco. Rested favorites coming off a day off are 66-33 (67%) with a 9% ROI this season.
San Francisco has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Giants have the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.68 (1st in MLB) compared to 5.75 for the Athletics (3rd worst).
Webb is 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA at home compared to 2-3 with a 3.86 ERA on the road.
