Today the work week wraps up with a loaded 16-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:15 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Atlanta Braves (-170, 7.5)
The Padres (27-21) have lost six in a row and just got swept by the Blue Jays, falling 7-6 in extra innings yesterday as -115 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Braves (24-25) just got swept in a two-game series against the Nationals, losing 8-7 in extra innings yesterday as -150 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres hand the ball to righty Nick Pivetta (5-2, 2.86 ERA) and the Braves counter with lefty Chris Sale (2-3, 3.62 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -140 home favorite and San Diego a +120 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Braves, steaming Atlanta up from -140 to -170.
At Circa, the Braves are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the more respected wagers backing Atlanta out in Vegas.
Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year are 159-78 (67%) with an 8% ROI this season. Home favorites in the opening game of a new series are 94-51 (65%) with a 4% ROI. When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 32-16 (67%) with a 7% ROI.
Atlanta also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Braves are 15-7 at home this season. The Padres are 11-13 on the road.
Atlanta is hitting .284 over their last ten games compared to San Diego hitting just .206.
Pivetta has a 5.40 ERA in three May starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 15 innings pitched. He has a 5.21 ERA on the road compared to 1.44 at home.
Sale has a 1.40 ERA in three May starts, giving up just 3 earned runs in 19.1 innings pitched.
7:40 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers (-190, 8) at Chicago White Sox
The Rangers (25-26) just got swept by the Yankees, falling 1-0 yesterday as +140 road dogs. Similarly, the White Sox (15-35) just dropped two of three against the Mariners, losing the series finale 6-5 as +130 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Rangers tap righty Tyler Mahle (5-1, 1.47 ERA) and the White Sox go with fellow righty Sean Burke (2-5, 4.69 ERA).
This line opened with Texas listed as -175 road favorite and Chicago a +155 home dog.
Wiseguys aren’t scared off by the pricey chalk and have laid the wood with Texas, steaming the Rangers up from -175 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Rangers are receiving 89% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Texas is taking in 43% of moneyline bets and 92% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way support in favor of the Rangers on the road.
Road favorites are getting shut out, like the Rangers here, are 13-6 (68%) with an 18% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a loss, the favorite is 32-16 (67%) with a 7% ROI. Bigger favorites -170 or more with line movement in their direction are 112-45 (71%) with a 4% ROI.
Texas has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rangers have the better bats, hitting .227 with 54 homers and 171 runs scored compared to the White Sox hitting .216 with only 40 homers and 164 runs scored.
Mahle has a 1.93 ERA in four May starts, allowing only 5 earned runs in 23.1 innings pitched. He has given up 2 earned runs or less in all ten starts this season.
9:38 p.m. ET: Miami Marlins at Los Angeles Angels (-150, 8.5)
The Marlins (19-29) just dropped two of three against the Cubs, losing the series finale 2-1 as +125 home dogs. On the other hand, the Angels (24-25) have won seven straight and just swept the Athletics, winning 10-5 yesterday as +120 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Marlins send out righty Sandy Alcantara (2-6, 7.99 ERA) and the Angels go with lefty Yusei Kikuchi (0-4, 3.50 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -140 home favorite and Miami a +120 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Angels laying modest chalk at home, driving Los Angeles up from -140 to -150.
At Circa, the Angels are taking in 43% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers in the desert backing the home team.
When both teams are below .500, the favorite in 55-30 (65%) with a 5% ROI this season. Home favorites in the opening game of a new series are 94-51 (65%) with a 4% ROI. Sweet spot non-division favorites -135 to -160 are 91-55 (62%) with a 6% ROI.
The Angels have the more explosive bats, hitting 75 homers and scoring 212 runs compared to the Marlins hitting 45 homers and scoring 197 runs. Los Angeles is hitting .271 over their last ten games while Miami is hitting .247.
Kikuchi has a 2.38 ERA in four May starts, giving up only 6 earned runs in 22.2 innings pitched. He has a 1.65 ERA at home compared to 4.30 on the road.
Alcantara has a 7.47 ERA in three May starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched. Miami is 0-6 in his last six starts. He has a 14.81 ERA on the road compared to 5.74 at home.
