Top NBA Player Prop Picks for Friday, May 23
The Pacers stunned Madison Square Garden in Game One, erasing a late deficit and stealing an improbable road win behind clutch shot-making and elite ball movement. Now, the Knicks return for Game Two with urgency and revenge on their minds.
New York enters as a 6-point favorite with the total set at 225.5 at DraftKings at the time of this writing. The pressure is on to even the series before it shifts to Indiana. With another high-intensity, high-minute battle on tap, there are clear player prop angles to target, especially now that we’ve seen how the rotations and matchups played out in Game One.
Below are my top player prop bets for Game Two, based on usage trends, matchup data and expected adjustments or lack thereof on both sides. As always, I transparently share my tracking sheet so you can look back at my previous results. Let’s get into it.
Karl-Anthony Towns Over 23.5 Points (-112, FanDuel)
Karl-Anthony Towns opened the Eastern Conference Finals with a dominant offensive performance, and all signs point to another big night in Game Two.
Towns erupted for 35 points on 11-of-17 shooting, including 4-of-8 from three and 9-of-11 from the free throw line in Game One, and the film and matchup data backed up the stat line. He absolutely torched Myles Turner in primary coverage, scoring 10 points on 5-of-6 shooting across 27.7 partial possessions. Indiana tried multiple looks, but Turner simply couldn’t handle Towns’ combination of strength, shooting and agility in pick-and-pop and face-up situations.
Even when defended by guards like Tyrese Haliburton in switch scenarios, Towns stayed aggressive, scoring eight points on 4-of-9 shooting against the point guard’s coverage. The Knicks repeatedly used him as the screener in pick-and-rolls, which opened up space for early post seals, trailing threes and soft closeouts that he attacked decisively.
This isn’t just a Game One overreaction. Towns scored 40 points on 14-of-23 shooting and 30 points on 11-of-19 shooting in his two regular-season meetings against the Pacers, and this matchup has consistently been one he exploits.
In 12 total career regular season games vs. Myles Turner (including the playoffs), Towns has averaged a whopping 29.4 points on 54.1% shooting overall and 44.4% from deep, while taking 18.3 field goal attempts per game. He’s gone over 23.5 points in six of the last eight head-to-head matchups, and with the usage and efficiency continuing into the postseason, there’s little reason to expect Indiana will suddenly have an answer.
With Turner’s struggles against KAT and Indiana lacking a physical frontcourt stopper, Towns has every opportunity to cash this number again. I think he’ll do exactly that.
Tyrese Haliburton Over 2.5 Made Threes (-130, DraftKings)
Tyrese Haliburton was one miracle buzzer-beater away (with his foot on the line) from hitting five threes in Game One. The shot profile tells us this prop remains very much in play heading into Game Two, much to the disgust of Knicks fans who dislike him a lot right now.
Haliburton went 4-for-12 from three in the opener and had no trouble finding clean looks. Per NBA.com tracking data, 11 of his 12 three-point attempts were either “open” (defender 4–6 feet away) or “wide open” (defender 6+ feet away). He was 2-for-6 on wide-open looks and 2-for-5 on open ones. That kind of shot quality is exactly what you want when betting threes, and the volume is even more encouraging and something I look for when betting this prop type.
The Knicks were content to play drop coverage in the pick-and-roll, and Haliburton took full advantage, leveraging Indiana’s spacing to walk into rhythm jumpers. With New York likely to stick with a similar defensive approach in Game Two, Haliburton should once again have the green light from deep in front of the hostile crowd that he loves frustrating.
He’s the offensive engine of this Pacers team and clearly willing to let it fly. Haliburton has a great shot to clear this for the second straight game. I expect this line to get heavily juiced with heavy popularity as we get closer and closer to tipoff.
Pascal Siakam Under 18.5 Points (-118, FanDuel)
Pascal Siakam has drawn the toughest defensive assignment in this series. It’s going to be a grind for him every night.
In Game One, Siakam scored 17 points on 7-of-16 shooting in 43 minutes, staying just under this number despite heavy minutes and an extra overtime period. That wasn’t by accident. OG Anunoby held Siakam to just 1-of-5 shooting across 48.8 partial possessions, per NBA.com’s matchup data.
This clamp-down approach from Tom Thibodeau isn’t new. In two regular-season meetings, Siakam also struggled with Anunoby on him, shooting just 5-of-14 in 71.1 partial possessions. Add it all up, and across the last three matchups, Siakam is shooting a combined 6-of-19 when defended by Anunoby — barely over 31%.
Thibs is a matchup-specific game planner and earned his reputation based on his defensive acumen, so Anunoby’s on-ball skills must make him smile. With Indiana’s offense flowing through Haliburton and the Knicks loading up on Siakam whenever he attacks from the wing, the volume might be there, but the efficiency likely won’t be.
Unless Anunoby gets into foul trouble or the Knicks drastically change their scheme, expect similar results in Game Two. Siakam’s scoring ceiling is capped in this matchup. In my opinion, this point total is a few points too high.
Josh Hart Triple-Double (+1300, DraftKings)
If you’re looking to swing for upside with a number that doesn’t match the actual probability, Josh Hart’s triple-double at +1300 is one of the sharpest value longshots on the Game Two board.
In Game One, Hart logged a hyper-productive eight points, 13 rebounds and seven assists in 44 minutes. He attempted just six shots (3-of-6 shooting), but with a little more scoring aggression in transition or on open looks — and in a pace-friendly series — the 10-point barrier is well within reach in Game Two.
The workload and all-around involvement are exactly what you want in a triple-double ticket. Hart led the Knicks with a team-high 13 rebounds and a team-high 22 rebounding chances in Game One, including 11 defensive boards, nine of which were uncontested. He continues to dominate as a rebounder for his size, cleaning up both short and long misses due to his anticipation and motor.
But what really makes this live is his playmaking. Hart dished a team-high seven assists on a team-high 14 potential assists and made 67 passes in Game One, also a team-high. For comparison, no other Knick had more than eight potential assists or made more than 45 passes in the first game. With Hart playing 40+ minutes as a connector, the usage is elite.
He posted 10 triple-doubles this season, including one in the playoffs, and has hit the mark in 11.1% of his games played. This line at +1300 implies just a 7.14% chance, giving you an edge on a player who continues to stuff the stat sheet and rarely leaves the floor.
With the minutes, rebounding role, assist profile, and offensive tempo all in his favor, Hart is very live to flirt with 10/10/10 again, and I want to take advantage.
I’ll be right back here tomorrow to break down props for Game Three of the Western Conference Finals!
