Today the work week ends with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:10 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at Cincinnati Reds (-180, 8.5)
This is the opening game of a three-game series.
The Nationals (14-18) just dropped two of three against the Phillies but avoided the sweep with a 4-2 win in yesterday’s series finale, cashing as +150 road dogs. Similarly, the Reds (17-15) just lost two of three against the Cardinals but managed to win the series finale 9-1 as +105 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Nationals send out lefty Mitchell Parker (3-1, 2.65 ERA) and the Reds go with righty ace Hunter Greene (3-2, 2.70 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -170 home favorite and Washington a +145 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Reds, steaming Cincinnati up from -170 to -180. Some shops are even inching toward -185.
At DraftKings, the Reds are receiving 82% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Reds are taking in 71% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the Reds at home.
Home favorites are 201-109 (65%) with a 7% ROI this season. Home favorites -150 or more are 96-40 (71%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 110-52 (68%) with a 9% ROI. Home favorites off a win with a winning record are 82-33 (71%) with a 15% ROI. When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the favorite is 24-11 (69%) with a 14% ROI.
Cincinnati has value as a non-division favorites, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Reds have the edge at the plate, hitting .249 with 163 runs scored compared to the Nationals hitting .238 with 135 runs scored.
Greene has a 1.42 ERA at home in three starts this season. The Nationals are only hitting .211 on the road this season, ranking 28th in MLB.
6:40 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres (-155, 8) at Pittsburgh Pirates
This is the opening game of a three-game series.
The Padres (19-11) just swept a brief two-game series against the Giants, winning Wednesday’s series finale 5-3 as -145 home favorites. On the other hand, the Pirates (12-20) just dropped two of three against the Cubs, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-3 as -125 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres go with righty Dylan Cease (1-2, 5.97 ERA) and the Pirates rebuttal with fellow righty Mitch Keller (1-2, 3.97 ERA).
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -135 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +115 home dog.
Wiseguys have pounced on the Padres laying modest chalk, steaming San Diego up from -135 to -155.
At DraftKings, the Padres are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Padres are taking in 87% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way “low bets, higher dollars” support in favor of San Diego.
Favorites with line movement in their direction are 199-113 (64%) with a 5% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 150-84 (64%) with a 4% ROI.
The Padres also have a rest advantage, as they were off yesterday while the Pirates played the Cubs. Rested favorites coming off a day off are 52-22 (70%) with a 14% ROI this season.
The Padres have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
San Diego has the edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 1.77 (best in MLB) compared to 4.09 for Pittsburgh.
9:38 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-185, 7.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Tigers (20-12) won last night’s series opener 10-4, taking care of business as -150 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Tigers hand the ball to lefty ace Tarik Skubal (3-2, 2.34 ERA) and the Angels (12-18) counter with righty Jose Soriano (2-4, 4.50 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -165 road favorite and Los Angeles a +140 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the pricey chalk and have gotten down hard on the Tigers, steaming Detroit up from -165 to -185.
At Circa, the Tigers are receiving 86% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing the Tigers out in Vegas.
Favorites with line movement in their direction are 199-113 (64%) with a 5% ROI. Non-division favorites with steam 10-cents or more are 80-48 (63%) with a 4% ROI. Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 150-84 (64%) with a 4% ROI.
The Tigers have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
Detroit has the better bats, hitting .248 with 155 runs scored compared to Los Angeles hitting only .215 with 110 runs scored. The Tigers also have the superior bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 2.69 (4th best) compared to 5.99 for the Angels (2nd worst).
The Angels are only hitting .204 against lefties this season, ranking 27th in MLB.
