Today a new week begins with a 13 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Pittsburgh Pirates (-110, 7)
The Blue Jays (73-52) just took two of three against the Rangers but couldn’t finish off the sweep, losing yesterday’s series finale 10-4 as -120 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Pirates (52-73) just dropped two of three against the Cubs, falling 4-3 yesterday as +160 road dogs.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Blue Jays send out righty Kevin Gausman (8-9, 3.79 ERA) and the Pirates turn to fellow righty Paul Skenes (7-9, 2.13 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -120 home favorite and Toronto a +110 road dog.
Sharps aren’t afraid to fade Skenes and have jumped on the Blue Jays as a road dog, dropping Pittsburgh from -120 to -110 and moving Toronto from +100 to -110. In other words, smart Toronto money has pushed this game down to a pick’em.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Toronto is taking in 88% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the road team.
Toronto has a big edge at the plate, hitting .269 with 148 homers and 615 runs scored compared to Pittsburgh hitting .232 with 88 homers and 439 runs scored.
The Blue Jays are hitting .268 against righties (1st in MLB) and .268 on the road (2nd). Meanwhile, the Pirates are hitting .237 against righties (26th) and .249 at home (17th).
Gausman has allowed 2 earned runs or less in 7 of his last 9 starts.
Skenes has a 4.80 ERA in three August starts, giving up 8 earned runs in 15 innings pitched.
Toronto is 6-4 over their last ten games, hitting .287 with a 4.30 team ERA. On the other hand, Pittsburgh is 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .224 with a 5.87 team ERA.
6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins (-140, 7.5)
The Cardinals (61-64) just got swept by the Yankees, losing yesterday’s series finale 8-4 as +130 home dogs. On the other hand, the Marlins (59-65) just dropped two of three against the Red Sox but avoided the sweep with a 5-3 win yesterday, coming through as +215 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals hand the ball to lefty Matthew Liberatore (6-10, 4.08 ERA) and the Marlins turn to righty Eury Perez (5-3, 3.58 ERA).
This line opened with Miami listed as a -135 home favorite and St. Louis a +115 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Marlins laying modest chalk at home, driving Miami up from -135 to -140, with some shops touching -145.
At Circa, Miami is taking in 78% of moneyline bets and 95% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the respected wiseguy wagers out in Vegas backing the home team.
Monday home teams with a line move in their favor are 66-39 (63%) with a 9% ROI this season. When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite off win is 67-37 (64%) with a 5% ROI.
Non-division home favorites -150 or less off a win receiving line movement in their direction are 88-49 (64%) with a 14% ROI.
Miami has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game, with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win. The Marlins have additional betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the team expected to win.
Perez has a 2.08 ERA at home compared to 4.42 on the road.
9:38 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds (-115, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
The Reds (65-60) just lost two of three against the Brewers but avoided the sweep with a 3-2 win in extras yesterday, coming through as -125 home favorites. Similarly, the Angels (60-64) just dropped two of three against the Athletics but avoided the sweep with an 11-5 win in extras yesterday, cashing as a -110 road pick’em.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Reds tap righty Brady Singer (10-9, 4.31 ERA) and the Angels turn to fellow righty Victor Mederos (0-0, 5.63 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Reds, pushing Cincinnati up from -110 to -115.
At DraftKings, the Reds are receiving 70% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating both public and sharp support in their favor.
Short favorites -120 or less with a line move in their favor are 11-7 (61%) with a 15% ROI since August 1st.
The Reds have the better bats, hitting .247 with 570 runs scored compared to the Angels hitting .233 with 551 runs scored. Cincinnati is hitting .254 against righties (6th best in MLB) while the Angels are hitting just .234 (28th).
Singer has a 2.30 ERA in three August starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 15.2 innings pitched. He has allowed 1 earned run or less in three of his last four starts.
Meanwhile, Mederos is making his 11th career MLB appearance and 2nd career start.
Cincinnati has a notable edge in the bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.96 compared to 4.84 for Los Angeles (5th worst in MLB).
