Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 9-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-120, 8.5) at Cleveland Guardians
The Diamondbacks (60-52) just took two of three against the Pirates, winning yesterday’s series finale 6-5 as +140 road dogs. On the other hand, the Guardians (67-44) just split a four-game set against the Orioles, losing 9-5 yesterday as +115 home dogs. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Diamondbacks turn to righty Zac Gallen (9-5, 3.56 ERA) and the Guardians tap lefty Logan Allen (8-4, 5.67 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -125 road favorite and Cleveland a +110 home dog. The public doesn’t know who to take and the moneyline tickets are split down the middle 50/50. However, despite this even split we’ve seen the line move slightly away from Arizona (-125 to -120) and toward Cleveland (+110 to +105). In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even. So, we know based upon this price adjustment that the bigger, sharper wagers are taking the Guardians at home as a plus money dog. Cleveland is receiving 50% of moneyline bets and 55% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy. The Guardians have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Cleveland is 35-17 at home, the best home record in MLB. Gallen posted a 5.10 ERA in six July starts. He has a 4.00 ERA on the road compared to 3.28 at home. Allen is making his return to the rotation after spending a month in AAA where he went 2-0 with a 3.86 ERA.
8:10 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals (-130, 10)
The Red Sox (59-51) just took two of three against the Rangers, winning yesterday’s series finale 7-2 as +105 road dogs. Similarly, the Royals (63-50) just took three of four against the Tigers, winning 3-2 yesterday as -130 road favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Red Sox start lefty James Paxton (8-3, 4.52 ERA) and the Royals send out righty Brady Singer (8-6, 2.88 ERA). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -140 home favorite and Boston a +125 road dog. The public is laying the modest chalk with the Royals at home. However, despite receiving 63% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Kansas City fall from -140 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Boston, as the line is moving in their favor (+125 to +115) despite being the unpopular side. The Red Sox are receiving 37% of moneyline bets but 59% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Boston has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (10), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Red Sox have the more explosive bats, hitting .262 with 140 homers compared to the Royals hitting .253 with 121 homers. Boston is 27-26 (51%) with a 12% ROI as a dog this season, the 6th-best dog team in MLB.
9:40 p.m. ET: Chicago White Sox at Oakland Athletics (-175, 8)
The White Sox (27-87) have lost 20-straight games and just got swept by the Twins, falling 13-7 in yesterday’s series finale as +260 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Athletics (46-67) just dropped two of three against the Dodgers, losing 3-2 yesterday as +125 home dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Athletics hand the ball to lefty JP Sears (8-8, 4.53 ERA). On the flip side, the White Sox have yet to name their starter. This line opened with Oakland listed as a -165 home favorite and Chicago a +150 road dog. Despite not knowing who Chicago will start on the mound, wiseguys have hammered the Athletics and steamed Oakland up from -165 to -175. The A’s are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars, signaling lopsided Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Oakland has the better offense, hitting .231 with 146 homers and 462 runs scored compared to Chicago hitting .217 with only 96 homers and 352 runs scored. Oakland also has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. Chicago is 10-47 on the road, by far the worst road record in MLB. The White Sox are hitting .228 against lefties, ranking 28th in MLB. The Athletics went 4-1 in Sears’ five July starts. He posted an ERA of 3.07.
