Today a new week begins with a 13-game MLB slate to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Detroit Tigers (-130, 7) at Cleveland Guardians
The Tigers (49-51) just took two of three against the Blue Jays but lost Sunday’s series finale 5-4 as +155 road dogs. Conversely, the Guardians (59-39) just dropped two of three against the Padres, losing 2-1 yesterday as a -105 home pick’em play. In tonight’s series opener, the Tigers go with lefty Tarik Skubal (10-3, 2.41 ERA) and the Guardians send out righty Carlos Carrasco (3-7, 5.02 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em with both sides listed around -105 odds. Sharps have gotten down hard on the Tigers at a coin-flip price with their ace on the mound, driving Detroit up from -105 to -130. The Tigers are receiving 61% of moneyline bets but 81% of moneyline dollars, indicating modest public support but also heavy sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a 25-cent steam move in their favor. Road favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more are 57-35 (62%) with a 4% ROI this season. Detroit also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is favored to win. The Tigers are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .267. The Guardians are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting just .189. Skubal is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young at -130.
7:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-115, 8) at Minnesota Twins
The Phillies (63-36) just dropped two of three against the Pirates but avoided the sweep with a 6-0 win in yesterday’s series finale, cashing as -115 road favorites. Similarly, the Twins (54-44) just got swept in a two-game series against the Brewers, losing 8-7 yesterday as -155 home favorites. In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Phillies go with lefty Ranger Suarez (10-4, 2.76 ERA) and the Twins send out righty Bailey Ober (8-5, 4.14 ERA). This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -130 road favorite and Minnesota a +115 home dog. The public is rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Phillies. However, despite receiving 78% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Philadelphia fall from -130 to -115. This signals sharp reverse line movement on Minnesota, as the line is moving toward the Twins (+115 to +100) despite the fact that they are the unpopular side. Minnesota is only receiving 22% of moneyline bets but 33% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. Suarez has a 7.36 ERA in two July starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 11 innings pitched (both losses). The Twins are hitting .277 against lefties this season, best in MLB. Ober has a 3.00 ERA in two July starts, allowing 4 earned runs in 12 innings pitched. The Twins are 4-2 in Ober’s last six starts. He has a 3.29 ERA at home compared to 4.67 on the road.
8:05 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-120, 8) at Chicago Cubs
The Brewers (57-42) just swept a two-game series against the Twins, winning yesterday’s series finale 8-7 as +145 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Cubs (48-53) just dropped two of three against the Diamondbacks but avoided the sweep with a 2-1 win in extras yesterday, taking care of business as -125 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Brewers hand the ball to righty Tobias Myers (6-3, 3.13 ERA) and the Cubs counter with fellow righty Javier Assad (4-3, 3.27 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -110 road favorite and Chicago a +100 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Brew Crew laying a short chalk price, steaming Milwaukee up from -110 to -120. The Brewers are receiving roughly 70% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating one-way support from both Pros and Joes in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 149-120 (55%) with a 3% ROI this season. Milwaukee is 34-22 (61%) with a 5% ROI as a favorite this season, including 28-15 (65%) with an 11% ROI as a favorite against teams with a below .500 record. The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .255 with 482 runs scored compared to the Cubs hitting .233 with 419 runs scored. Milwaukee is 6-2 in Myers’ last eight starts. He has given up one earned run or less in five of his last seven starts. He has a 2.56 ERA on the road compared to 3.78 at home. Chicago is just 1-6 in Assad’s last seven starts.
