I’m back from my 2-week safari in Kenya and excited to return to work covering the sports betting market! Today we have a smaller than usual MLB slate with only 7-games to choose from. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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6:50 p.m. ET: Baltimore Orioles (-140, 7.5) at Tampa Bay Rays
The Orioles (42-22) have taken the first three games of this four-game series, winning the opener 6-3 as -120 road favorites, taking the second game 5-0 as -150 road favorites and then cruising to a 9-2 victory yesterday as -135 road favorites. In tonight’s series finale, the Orioles hand the ball to righty Corbin Burnes (6-2, 2.26 ERA) and the Rays (31-34) counter with fellow righty Ryan Pepiot (4-2, 3.96 ERA). This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -155 road favorite and Tampa Bay a +130 home dog. The public is riding the hot hand and rushing to the window to lay the chalk with the Orioles. However, despite receiving 85% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Baltimore fall from -155 to -140. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Rays, with pros backing the unpopular home dog and triggering a line move in their favor (+130 to +120). Tampa Bay has value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money. Sharps also seem to be leaning toward a lower scoring game, as the total is 7.5 with the under juiced to -115 or even -120 at some shops, signaling a possible fall down to 7. The under is only receiving 20% of bets but 45% of dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split.
8:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers (-115, 8)
The is the opener of a three-game Interleague series. The Blue Jays (32-33) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning 6-4 in extra innings on Sunday as -135 road favorites. Similarly, the Brewers (38-27) just took two of three against the Tigers but lost yesterday’s series finale 10-2 as +145 road dogs. In tonight’s series opener, the Blue Jays start righty Jose Berrios (5-4, 2.80 ERA) and the Brewers go with fellow righty Colin Rea (4-2, 3.53 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops opening Toronto as a slight -115 road favorite. Pros have jumped on the Brewers at an appealing cheap home price, driving Milwaukee up to -115. Essentially, we are seeing sharp “pick’em to favorite” or “dog to favorite” line movement on the Brew Crew. Milwaukee is receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars, indicating both public and wiseguy support. The Brewers have the better bats (hitting .257 vs .233) and the better bullpen (ERA 3.34 vs 4.88). Berrios has a 3.76 ERA on the road compared to 1.82 at home. Favorites with a winning record off a loss playing a sub .500 team are 83-54 (61%) with a 6% ROI this season. We’ve also seen this total fall from 8.5 to 8. When the total falls at least a half run, favorites are 197-131 (60%) with a 2% ROI. The under is receiving only 33% of bets but 68% of dollars, a notable sharp bet discrepancy.
8:10 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-130, 8.5) at Kansas City Royals
This is the opener of a three-game series. The Yankees (46-21) just dropped two of three against the Dodgers but avoided the sweep with a 6-4 win on Sunday, cashing as +115 home dogs. On the flip side, the Royals (39-27) just took two of three against the Mariners but lost yesterday’s series finale 6-5 in extra innings as -135 home favorites. In tonight’s series opener, the Yankees turn to lefty Carlos Rodon (8-2, 3.08 ERA) and the Royals go with righty Seth Lugo (9-1, 2.13 ERA). This line opened with New York listed as a -130 road favorite and Kansas City a +110 home dog. The public is all over the mighty Bronx Bombers laying a short chalk price. However, despite receiving 70% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Yankees remain stagnant at -130. Normally, if a team is getting such lopsided support you would see the oddsmakers adjust the line further in their favor. The fact that this line hasn’t moved indicates a sharp “line freeze” on the Royals, with savvy pros backing the contrarian home dog. Kansas City has correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. The Royals are hitting .274 against lefties this season, 3rd-best in MLB. New York is also in a “fade” schedule spot as they played the late Sunday Night Baseball game last night and now have to travel while the Royals played at home on Sunday afternoon.
