Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 7-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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9:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Seattle Mariners (-175, 7)
The Red Sox (37-36) just swept the Yankees, winning yesterday’s series finale 2-0 as +155 home dogs. Similarly, the Mariners (36-34) just swept the Guardians, winning 6-0 yesterday as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Red Sox hand the ball to righty Lucas Giolito (2-1, 5.45 ERA) and the Mariners counter with fellow righty Logan Gilbert (1-1, 2.37 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -165 home favorite and Boston a +145 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have laid the wood with the Mariners, steaming Seattle up from -165 to -175. This line reached as high as Mariners -190 earlier today.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are receiving 58% of moneyline bets and 68% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating slight public support but also respected wiseguy action on the home team.
Monday home favorites with a line move in their direction are 30-16 (65%) with a 4% ROI this season. Big home favorites -170 or more in the opening game of a new series are 60-19 (76%) with an 11% ROI.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorite is 35-16 (69%) with a 12% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their favor are 105-54 (66%) with a 4% ROI.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Mariners are 19-17 at home. The Red Sox are 15-19 on the road.
The Red Sox will be playing their first game without Rafael Devers (.272, 15 homers, 58 RBIs), who was traded to the Giants yesterday.
10:05 p.m. ET: Houston Astros (-160, 10) at Athletics
The Astros (41-30) just swept the Twins, winning yesterday’s series finale 2-1 as -120 home favorites. Similarly, the Athletics (29-44) just swept the Royals, winning 3-2 yesterday as +125 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Astros tap righty Lance McCullers (1-2, 4.91 ERA) and the Athletics rebuttal with fellow righty Mitch Spence (2-1, 3.67 ERA).
This line opened with Houston listed as a -155 road favorite and the Athletics a +130 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Astros to earn a series opening victory, pushing Houston up from -155 to -160.
At DraftKings, Houston is receiving roughly two-thirds or moneyline bets and dollars. At Circa, the Astros are taking in over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way Pro and Joe support in favor of the road chalk.
If both teams are coming off a win, the favorite who is -150 or more is 20-8 (71%) with a 7% ROI this season.
McCullers has a 3.27 ERA in two June starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 11 innings pitched. He is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA on the road this season. Meanwhile, Spence is 1-1 with a 6.16 ERA at home this season.
Houston has the far better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.19 (5th best in MLB) compared to 5.98 for the Athletics (dead last).
The Astros are 2-0 against the Athletics this season.
Houston is 25-21 in night games. The Athletics are 17-28.
10:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-155, 9)
The Padres (39-31) just dropped two of three against the Diamondbacks but avoided the sweep with an 8-2 win in yesterday’s series finale, cashing as +110 road dogs. On the other hand, the Dodgers (43-29) just took two of three against the Giants, winning 5-4 yesterday as -195 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Padres send out righty Dylan Cease (2-5, 4.28 ERA) and the Dodgers turn to righty Shohei Ohtani, who is making his 2025 debut and acting as the opener. Ohtani last pitched in 2023 with the Angels, going 10-5 with a 3.14 ERA.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -145 home favorite and San Diego a +125 road dog.
Sharps are backing the Dodgers to earn a victory in Ohtani’s debut, steaming Los Angeles up from -145 to -155.
At DraftKings, Los Angeles is receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split indicating one-way public and sharp support.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record and line movement in their direction are 111-58 (66%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites with line movement who made the playoffs the previous season are 150-73 (67%) with a 7% ROI. Home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who also made the playoffs the previous season are 69-37 (65%) with a 10% ROI.
When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home favorite is 35-16 (69%) with a 12% ROI. Monday home favorites with a line move in their direction are 30-16 (65%) with a 4% ROI
The Dodgers have the better bats, hitting .264 with 112 homers and 399 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting .249 with 60 homers and 295 runs scored. Los Angeles is hitting .278 at home this season, the best in MLB.
Cease is 0-3 with a 5.65 ERA on the road this season.
The Dodgers are 25-12 at home. The Padres are 18-19 on the road.
