Today we wrap up the month of June with a smaller than usual 8 game MLB slate. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (-110, 9)
The Cardinals (47-38) just swept the Guardians, winning yesterday’s series finale 7-0 as -115 road favorites. Similarly, the Pirates (35-50) just swept the Mets, cruising 12-1 yesterday as +125 home dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Cardinals send out righty Erick Fedde (3-7, 4.11 ERA) and the Pirates go with lefty Andrew Heaney (3-7, 4.48 ERA).
This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 road favorite and Pittsburgh a +110 home dog.
The public says the Cardinals are the better team and they’re happy to lay the modest chalk with St. Louis.
However, despite receiving 65% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen the Cardinals fall from -130 to -110. This signals sharp reverse line movement on the Pirates (+110 to -110), as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play. In other words, smart Pirates money has driven this game down to a pick’em.
At Circa, Pittsburgh is receiving 33% of moneyline bets and 43% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in Vegas siding with the home team.
Monday home teams receiving line movement in their favor are 40-24 (63%) with a 6% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a win, as is the case here, the home team is 59-34 (63%) with a 12% ROI.
The Pirates come into this game with red-hot bats, hitting .303 over their last ten games compared to the Cardinals hitting .239. Pittsburgh has scored 9 or more runs in three straight games.
Heaney has a 2.95 ERA at home compared to 5.79 on the road.
7:07 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-145, 8.5) at Toronto Blue Jays
The Yankees (48-35) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning 12-5 yesterday as -215 home favorites. Similarly, the Blue Jays (45-38) just took two of three against the Red Sox, winning 5-3 yesterday as a -110 road pick’em.
In tonight’s series opener, the Yankees hand the ball to lefty Carlos Rodon (9-5, 2.92 ERA) and the Blue Jays counter with righty Max Scherzer (0-0, 5.63 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -155 road favorite and Toronto a +135 home dog.
The public is rushing to the window to back the Yankees, who are taking in 72% of moneyline bets at DraftKings. However, despite receiving such lopsided support, we’ve seen New York tumble from -155 to -145, with some shops even down to -140.
Why would oddsmakers drop the price on New York to make the Yankees more appealing when the public is already sweating the Bronx Bombers to begin with? Because respected sharp action has come down on the unpopular home dog, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Blue Jays (+135 to +120).
Monday dogs coming off a win receiving line movement in their direction are 15-7 (68%) with a 45% ROI this season. When both teams are coming off a win, the home team is 59-34 (63%) with a 12% ROI this season. Home dogs have been even better in this spot, going 19-10 (66%) with a 35% ROI.
The Blue Jays have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (8.5), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Toronto also has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money.
Toronto is hitting .269 at home (4th best in MLB) and .272 against lefties (2nd best in MLB).
9:40 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-135, 8.5) at Arizona Diamondbacks
The Giants (45-39) just dropped two of three against the White Sox, falling 5-2 yesterday as -155 road favorites. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks (41-42) just got swept by the Marlins, losing 6-4 yesterday as -190 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Giants start righty Logan Webb (7-5, 2.52 ERA) and the Diamondbacks turn to fellow righty Ryne Nelson (4-2, 3.71 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -150 road favorite and Arizona a +130 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Diamondbacks as a plus-money dog, dropping the line away from San Francisco (-150 to -135) and toward Arizona (+130 to +115).
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are taking in 45% of moneyline bets and 47% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Snakes are receiving 45% of moneyline bets and 51% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of Arizona to steal the opener at home.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the team getting 10-cents of line movement or more in their favor is 31-19 (62%) with a 6% ROI this season.
Arizona has betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting plus money.
The Diamondbacks have the better bats, hitting .254 with 120 homers and 432 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .230 with 79 homers and 349 runs scored.
Arizona is hitting .257 at home this season (11th best in MLB) and .256 against righties (7th). Conversely, San Francisco is hitting .221 on the road (27th) and .237 against righties (25th).
Webb is 3-4 with a 3.75 ERA on the road compared to 4-1 with a 1.52 ERA at home. Meanwhile, Nelson is 3-1 with a 2.25 ERA at home compared to 1-1 with a 5.34 ERA on the road.
