Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 11-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-120, 8.5) at Detroit Tigers
The Red Sox (22-20) just took two of three against the Royals, winning 3-1 yesterday as +115 road dogs. On the other hand, the Tigers (26-15) just dropped two of three against the Rangers, falling 6-1 yesterday as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Red Sox send out righty Tanner Houck (0-2, 6.10 ERA) and the Tigers rebuttal with fellow righty Jackson Jobe (2-0, 4.88 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as -115 home favorite and Boston a +100 road dog.
The public is jumping on the Tigers laying short chalk at home. However, despite 61% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing Detroit, we’ve seen this line completely flip to Boston +100 to -120. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Red Sox.
At Circa, Boston is receiving 47% of moneyline bets but a whopping 87% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger wiseguy wagers backing the Red Sox out in Vegas.
The Red Sox have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Boston is hitting .246 on the road (12th in MLB). Detroit is hitting .247 at home (18th).
Houck has a 2.31 ERA in two May starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched. Meanwhile Jobe just got lit up in his last start, allowing 6 earned runs in 3.2 innings pitched against the Rockies.
7:10 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets (-160, 7)
The Pirates (14-27) just took two of three against the Braves, winning 4-3 yesterday as +190 home dogs. Similarly, the Mets (26-15) just took two of three against the Cubs, winning 6-2 yesterday as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Pirates hand the ball to righty Paul Skenes (3-4, 2.77 ERA) and the Mets counter with lefty David Peterson (2-2, 3.05 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -135 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +115 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Mets, steaming New York up from -135 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Mets are receiving 74% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Mets are taking in 69% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Mets at home.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record, like the Mets here, are 93-45 (67%) with a 7% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 65-32 (67%) with an 8% ROI. Monday home favorites with line movement in their direction are 20-7 (74%) with a 19% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 143-69 (68%) with an 8% ROI.
New York has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Mets have the better offense, hitting .255 with 51 homers and 199 runs scored compared to the Pirates only hitting .220 with 28 homers and 127 runs scored.
The Mets are hitting .260 at home (8th best in MLB). The Pirates are hitting .210 on the road, ranking 29th.
New York is 15-4 at home. Pittsburgh is 5-14 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees (-145, 8) at Seattle Mariners
The Yankees (23-17) just took two of three against the Athletics, winning 12-2 yesterday as -150 road favorites. On the flip side, the Mariners (22-17) just got swept by the Blue Jays, falling 9-1 yesterday as -185 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Yankees go with righty Clarke Schmidt (0-1, 4.79 ERA) and the Mariners trot out fellow righty Emerson Hancock (1-1, 5.70 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a -130 road favorite and Seattle a +110 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Bronx Bombers laying modest chalk, steaming the Yankees up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Yankees are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Yankees are taking in 77% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the bigger, more respected wagers backing New York out in Vegas.
Favorites who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Yankees here, are 199-113 (64%) with a 4% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous season are 143-69 (68%) with an 8% ROI.
New York has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Yankees have the far better offense, hitting .263 with 70 homers and 235 runs scored compared to the Mariners only hitting .243 with 53 homers and 192 runs scored.
New York is hitting .257 against righties this season (5th best). Seattle is hitting .248 (14th).
The Yankees are hitting .276 on the road (1st). The Mariners are only hitting .217 at home (28th).
