Today a new week begins with a smaller than usual 10-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-200, 9.5) at Miami Marlins
The Dodgers (23-11) just took two of three against the Braves but lost yesterday’s series finale 4-3 as -140 road favorites. On the other hand, the Marlins (13-20) just dropped two of three against the Athletics, falling 3-2 yesterday as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s series opener, the Dodgers start righty Ben Casparius (3-0, 2.91 ERA) and the Marlins rebuttal with fellow righty Sandy Alcantara (2-3, 8.31 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -165 road favorite and Miami a +140 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have pounded the Dodgers, steaming Los Angeles up from -165 to -200.
At DraftKings, the Dodgers are receiving roughly 90% of moneyline bets and dollars. At Circa, the Dodgers are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing heavy one-way support in favor of the road chalk.
Favorites off a loss, like the Dodgers here, are 131-81 (62%) with a 4% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction who made the playoffs the previous year are 121-59 (67%) with an 8% ROI. When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the favorite is 26-11 (70%) with a 14% ROI.
Big favorites -200 or more are 60-17 (78%) with a 10% ROI this season. A $100 bettor taking every -200 or more favorite would be up nearly $800.
The Dodgers have the more explosive bats, hitting 54 homers and scoring 182 runs compared to the Marlins hitting only 30 homers and scoring 147 runs.
The Dodgers are 3-0 against the Marlins this season.
Alcantara faced Los Angeles a week ago and allowed 7 earned runs in 2.2 innings pitched, losing 15-2.
7:40: San Francisco Giants at Chicago Cubs (-170, 7.5)
The Giants (22-13) just swept the Rockies, winning yesterday’s series finale 9-3 as -400 home favorites. Meanwhile, the Cubs (21-14) just took two of three against the Brewers but lost the series finale 4-0 yesterday as -115 road favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Giants hand the ball to righty Landen Roupp (2-2, 5.10 ERA) and the Cubs turn to lefty Matthew Boyd (2-2, 2.70 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -145 home favorite and San Francisco a +130 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Cubs to earn a win at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -145 to -170.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 85% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cubs are taking in 60% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites off a loss, like the Cubs here, are 82-47 (64%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 118-58 (67%) with an 8% ROI. Monday home favorites with a line move in their direction are 18-5 (78%) with a 25% ROI. When both teams are above .500, the favorite is 44-26 (63%) with a 7% ROI.
Chicago has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
The Cubs have the better bats, hitting .262 with 52 homers and 208 runs scored compared to the Giants hitting .231 with 37 homers and 164 runs scored.
The Cubs are hitting .255 against righties this season, ranking 8th in MLB. The Giants are only hitting .220 against lefties, ranking 22nd.
Boyd has given up 2 earned runs or less in four of his six starts this season. He is 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA at home.
9:40 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks (-120, 9.5)
The Mets (22-13) just dropped two of three against the Cardinals, getting swept in yesterday’s series finale doubleheader 6-5 as -122 road favorites and 5-4 as -160 road favorites. Similarly, the Diamondbacks (18-16) just lost two of three against the Phillies but avoided the sweep with an 11-9 extra innings win yesterday, cashing as +130 road dogs.
In tonight’s series opener, the Mets send out righty Griffin Canning (4-1, 2.61 ERA) and the Diamondbacks counter with fellow righty Ryne Nelson (1-0, 5.82 ERA).
This line opened with New York listed as a short -115 road favorite and Arizona a -105 home dog.
The public can’t believe this line is so short and they’re rushing to the window to back the Mets. However, despite 65% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing New York, we’ve seen this line completely flip to Diamondbacks -120. This signals sharp “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of the Snakes at home.
At DraftKings, the Diamondbacks are taking in 35% of moneyline bets but 47% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of pros fading the trendy dog Mets.
Home favorites off a win with a winning record, like the Diamondbacks here, 86-37 (70%) with a 12% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more are 61-28 (69%) with a 10% ROI. Monday home favorites with a line move in their direction are 18-5 (78%) with a 25% ROI. When both teams are above .500, the favorite is 44-26 (63%) with a 7% ROI.
Arizona has value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win. The Snakes also enjoy a sneaky “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Mets played a doubleheader yesterday and now must travel to Arizona.
The Snakes are 2-1 against the Mets this season.
