Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:20 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs (-115, 7.5)
The Cubs (13-9) took last night’s series opener 13-11 in epic come-from-behind fashion, cashing as a -105 home dog.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Diamondbacks (12-8) go with righty Zac Gallen (1-2, 4.64 ERA) and the Cubs trot out fellow righty Ben Brown (2-1, 5.09 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -115 road favorite and Chicago a -105 home dog. The public is leaning toward the Diamondbacks to bounce back with a win.
However, despite 57% of moneyline bets at DraftKings backing the Snakes we’ve actually seen this line flip toward the Cubs -105 to -115. This indicates sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of the Cubs at Wrigley.
Chicago matches several profitable betting systems this season. Home favorites are 132-63 (68%) with a 12% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 65-22 (75%) with a 20% ROI. Home favorites off a win playing an opponent off a loss are 63-33 (66%) with a 7% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 127-67 (66%) with an 8% ROI.
Chicago also has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win the game.
4:05 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Texas Rangers (-110, 8.5)
The Dodgers (15-6) won last night’s Interleague series opener 3-0, taking care of business as -125 road favorites.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Dodgers send out righty Roki Sasaki (0-1, 3.29 ERA) and the Rangers (12-8) go with fellow righty Nathan Eovaldi (1-2, 2.55 ERA).
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -120 road favorite and Texas a +105 home dog.
The public is pounding the star-studded Dodgers at a cheap chalk price. However, despite receiving 75% of moneyline bets at DraftKings we’ve seen Los Angeles tumble from a -120 favorite to a -105 dog. This indicates sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of the Rangers, as the line has moved in their favor (+105 to -110) despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Rangers are receiving 25% of moneyline bets and 40% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Rangers are taking in 50% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of the unpopular home team.
Home favorites off a loss, like the Rangers here, are 51-22 (70%) with an 18% ROI this season. Home favorites with a winning record are 65-22 (75%) with a 20% ROI. Interleague home favorites are 42-20 (68%) with a 15% ROI.
The Dodgers are expected to miss Shohei Ohtani, who is on paternity leave awaiting the birth of his first child.
9:38 p.m. ET: San Francisco Giants (-135, 8.5) at Los Angeles Angels
The Angels (10-9) took last night’s Interleague series opener 2-0, cashing as +135 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Giants (13-7) hand the ball to righty Landen Roupp (1-1, 4.80 ERA) and the Angels counter with fellow righty Kyle Hendricks (0-1, 4.20 ERA).
This line opened with San Francisco listed as a -125 road favorite and Los Angeles a +110 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Giants in a bounce-back spot, steaming San Francisco up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Giants are receiving 79% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Giants are taking in 91% of moneyline bets and 97% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a heavy one-way Pro and Joe “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Favorites off a loss are 80-41 (66%) with a 12% ROI this season. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 12-5 (71%) with a 17% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 127-67 (66%) with an 8% ROI. Interleague favorites are 60-37 (62%) with a 6% ROI.
San Francisco is hitting .237 against righties this season (15th). Los Angeles is hitting .230 (21st). The Giants have notable familiarity against Hendricks, who spent his entire career in the National League prior to joining the Angels this season.
The Giants also have the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 1.84 compared to 5.61 for the Angels.
