Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
Top MLB Resources:
4:10 p.m. ET: Arizona Diamondbacks (-115, 7) at Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays (60-61) took last night’s Interleague series opener 5-4, cashing as -105 home dogs. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Diamondbacks (69-54) hand the ball to righty Zac Gallen (9-5, 3.69 ERA) and the Rays counter with lefty Jeffrey Springs (0-1, 4.61 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -110 road favorite and Tampa Bay a +100 home dog. Sharps have pounced on the Diamondbacks at a cheap chalk price, pushing Arizona up from -110 to -115. Some shops are even inching up to -120. The Diamondbacks are receiving 78% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars, a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a line adjustment in their favor. Road favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 141-97 (59%) with a 4% ROI this season. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 114-71 (62%) with a 5% ROI. Sweet spot short road favorites -130 or less are 184-149 (55%) with a 3% ROI. Arizona has the better offense, hitting .261 with 148 homers and 648 runs scored compared to Tampa Bay hitting .232 with 111 homers and 469 runs scored. The Diamondbacks are 32-28 on the road. The Rays are 32-34 at home. Arizona is 5-0 in Gallen’s last five starts. The Snakes are hitting .283 against lefties this season, the best in MLB.
7:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers (-130, 9) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Dodgers (72-51) took last night’s series opener 7-6, cashing as -135 road favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Dodgers start righty Bobby Miller (1-2, 8.07 ERA) and the Cardinals (60-62) tap fellow righty Andre Pallante (4-6, 4.21 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -170 road favorite and St. Louis a +155 home dog. The public is happy to lay the chalk with the powerhouse Dodgers. However, despite receiving 83% of moneyline bets we’ve seen Los Angeles plummet from -170 to -130. This signals sharp reverse line movement on St. Louis (+155 to +115), with pros grabbing the plus money with the Cardinals at home. St. Louis is only receiving 17% of moneyline bets but 39% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in addition to a massive 40-cent steam move in their favor. St. Louis is also the top “bet against the public” play of the day, receiving only 17% of moneyline bets. The Cardinals have correlative betting value as a dog in a high total game (9), with the more expected runs scored leading to more variance and upset opportunities. Miller was just called up from AAA Oklahoma City after going 0-1 with a 5.82 ERA in the minors. St. Louis is in the ultimate buy low spot having lost five straight games.
7:15 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Milwaukee Brewers (-130, 7.5)
The Brewers (70-52) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-3, cashing as -105 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians (72-50) tap righty Tanner Bibee (10-4, 3.39 ERA) and the Brewers go with fellow righty Freddy Peralta (7-7, 4.11 ERA). This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -115 home favorite and Cleveland a -105 road dog. The public is leaning toward the Guardians to bounce back with a win. However, despite Cleveland receiving 55% of moneyline bets we’ve seen this line move further toward the Brewers (-115 to -130). This signals sharp reverse line movement on Milwaukee, with pros fading the trendy dog Guardians and instead laying the modest chalk with the Brewers at home. Saturday home favorites with a winning record are 70-40 (64%) with a 6% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 96-59 (62%) with a 2% ROI. The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .254 with 590 runs scored compared to the Guardians hitting .240 with 562 runs scored. Milwaukee has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is expected to win.
