Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7:10 p.m. ET: New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers (-135, 9)
The Brewers (71-44) won last night’s series opener 3-2, hanging on as -145 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mets (63-53) have yet to officially announce their starting pitcher, although some speculation is that righty Frankie Montas (3-2, 6.68 ERA) could get the ball. Meanwhile, the Brewers will go with righty Tobias Myers (1-1, 4.30 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with some shops even opening the Mets a short -115 road favorite and the Brewers a -105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the red-hot Brewers, winners of 7 straight and 15-4 since the All-Star Break, steaming Milwaukee up to a -135 home favorite.
At DraftKings, the Brewers are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split and further evidence of Pro and Joe support in their favor.
Milwaukee has betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Brewers have the more productive bats, hitting .256 with 573 runs scored compared to the Mets hitting .238 with 503 runs scored.
Milwaukee has played far better than New York as of late, going 9-1 in their last ten games and hitting .314 with a 3.90 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Mets are 1-9 in their last ten games and hitting .187 with a 5.10 team ERA.
The Brewers are 37-20 at home. The Mets are 25-32 on the road.
8:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres (-135, 7.5)
The Red Sox (65-52) dominated last night’s series opener 10-2, cruising as +145 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Red Sox go with righty Lucas Giolito (8-2, 3.57 ERA) and the Padres (64-52) tap fellow righty Michael King (4-2, 2.59 ERA) who is returning from 60-day injured list and making his first start since May 18th.
This line opened with San Diego listed as a -145 home favorite and Boston a +125 road dog.
The public is roughly split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this split ticket count at DraftKings, we’ve seen the line move away from the Padres (-145 to -135) and toward the Red Sox (+125 to +115).
In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddsmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the respected pro money has sided with the plus money Red Sox.
At DraftKings, Boston is taking in 51% of moneyline bets and 69% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Red Sox are receiving 53% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the road dog.
The Red Sox have a big edge at the plate, hitting 143 homers and scoring 587 runs compared to the Padres hitting 98 homers and scoring 478 runs.
Boston is 12-3 in Giolito’s last 15 starts. He is 4-1 with a 3.10 ERA on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners (-145, 8)
The Mariners (64-53) rallied to win last night’s series opener 3-2, coming through as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rays (57-60) send out righty Joe Boyle (1-1, 2.30 ERA) and the Mariners counter with fellow righty Logan Evans (5-4, 4.30 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -125 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +105 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Mariners laying short chalk at home, steaming Seattle up from -125 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Mariners are taking in 75% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Seattle is receiving 88% of moneyline bets and a hefty 92% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of another Mariners home victory.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Evans is 3-0 with a 3.03 ERA at home this season. Meanwhile, Boyle has a 4.38 ERA on the road compared to 0.60 at home.
The Mariners are 35-25 at home. The Rays are 25-30 on the road.
