Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 16-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:15 p.m. ET: Atlanta Braves at San Diego Padres (-135, 7)
The Braves (52-41) won Friday night’s series opener 6-1, cashing as +100 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Braves send out righty Reynaldo Lopez (7-2, 1.71 ERA) and the Padres (49-48) rebuttal with fellow righty Dylan Cease (7-8, 4.21 ERA). This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds. Some books even opened the Braves as a short road favorite. Regardless of the opener, we’ve seen sharp money pound San Diego, driving the Padres up to a -135 home favorite. This movement is especially notable because 64% of moneyline backs are on Atlanta yet the line shot up in San Diego’s favor, evidence of sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Padres. San Diego is only receiving 36% of moneyline bets but 48% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian bet split. The Padres have correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the team who is favored to win. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 307-196 (61%) with a 4% ROI this season. The Padres have fishy buy-low value as a favorite who is mired in a five-game losing streak.
7:15 p.m. ET: Minnesota Twins at San Francisco Giants (-115, 8.5)
The Giants (46-49) cruised to a 7-1 win in last night’s Interleague series opener, cashing as +125 home dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Twins (53-41) turn to righty Simeon Woods Richardson (3-1, 3.48 ERA) and the Giants tap fellow righty Hayden Birdsong (1-0, 4.40 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -115 road favorite and San Francisco a -105 home dog. The public is banking on the Twins to bounce back with a win. However, despite 69% of moneyline bets taking the Twins, we’ve seen this line move away from Minnesota (-115 to -105) and toward San Francisco (-105 to -115). Essentially, we are seeing sharp “dog to favorite” reverse line movement on the Giants, as the line is moving in their direction despite receiving only 31% of moneyline bets. The Giants have value as an Interleague favorite off a win, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is carrying momentum. Sharps are also leaning toward a lower scoring game, as the total is 8.5 with the under juiced to -115, signaling under liability and a possible drop down to 8. The under is only receiving 40% of bets, offering notable contrarian value. Interleague unders are 204-182 (53%) with a 3% ROI this season.
10:10 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks (-135, 9)
The Diamondbacks (48-47) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-4, taking care of business as -120 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays (43-51) hand the ball to righty Jose Berrios (8-6, 3.76 ERA) and the Diamondbacks counter with fellow righty Yilber Diaz (0-0, 1.50 ERA). This line opened with Arizona listed as a -120 home favorite and Toronto a +110 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Snakes laying short chalk at home, steaming Arizona up from -120 to -135. The Diamondbacks are receiving roughly 60% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year, like Arizona here, are 82-44 (65%) with a 6% ROI this season. The Diamondbacks have the better bats, hitting .252 with 98 homers and 463 runs scored compared to the Blue Jays hitting .236 with 84 homers and 381 runs scored. Toronto is 22-27 on the road. Arizona is 25-23 at home. The Diamondbacks are 7-3 over their last ten games, hitting .265 with a 3.82 ERA. The Blue Jays are 5-5 over their last ten games, hitting .242 with a 4.68 ERA. Berrios has a 7.36 ERA in two July starts, allowing 9 earned runs in 11 innings pitched. He has a 4.55 ERA on the road compared to 2.97 at home. Diaz just made his MLB debut last time out, allowing only 1 earned run in 6 innings pitched against the Braves.
