Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 16 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Cincinnati Reds (-125, 9)
The Reds (54-50) took last night’s Interleague series opener 7-2, cruising as -115 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rays (53-51) hand the ball to righty Ryan Pepiot (6-8, 3.59 ERA) and the Reds counter with lefty Andrew Abbott (8-1, 2.13 ERA).
This line opened with Cincinnati listed as a -115 home favorite and Tampa Bay a -105 road dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have pounced on the Reds laying short chalk at home, steaming Cincinnati up from -115 to -125.
At DraftKings, the Reds are receiving 68% of moneyline bets and 89% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cincinnati is taking in 75% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Non-division home favorite off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their favor are 151-86 (64%) with a 2% ROI this season. Home favorites in the second game of a series after winning the opener are 119-67 (64%) with a 3% ROI. When both teams missed the playoffs the previous season, the Interleague home favorite is 71-38 (65%) with an 8% ROI.
The Reds are hitting .257 against righties (5th best in MLB). Meanwhile, the Rays are hitting .234 against lefties (18th).
Abbott is 4-1 with a 1.98 ERA at home and 4-0 with a 1.68 ERA in night games.
Pepiot is 1-4 with a 3.83 ERA on the road. He has a 4.50 ERA in four July starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 24 innings pitched.
The Reds are 29-22 at home. The Rays are 23-24 on the road.
Cincinnati has played better as of late, going 6-4 over their last ten games and hitting .276 with a 3.31 team ERA. Meanwhile, the Rays are 3-7 over their last ten games, hitting .229 with a 4.81 team ERA.
7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs (-190, 9.5) at Chicago White Sox
The White Sox (38-66) stole last night’s Interleague series opener 12-5, coming through as +155 home dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs (60-43) send out righty Cade Horton (3-3, 4.04 ERA) and the White Sox go with fellow righty Aaron Civale (2-6, 4.76 ERA).
This line opened with the Cubs listed as a -180 road favorite and the White Sox a +150 home dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the expensive chalk and have gotten down on the Cubs to bounce back with a win, steaming Chicago up from -180 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are taking in 79% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Cubs are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the road chalk.
Road favorites off a loss with steam 10-cents or more in their favor are 56-30 (65%) with a 9% ROI this season. Big road favorites -185 or more with at least 5-cents of line movement in their favor are 32-10 (76%) with a 10% ROI.
The Cubs are 28-11 (72%) with a 25% ROI off a loss, the second most profitable “bounce back” team in MLB.
The Cubs have the more explosive bats, hitting .256 with 153 homers and 542 runs scored compared to the White Sox hitting .227 with 89 homers and 393 runs scored.
Horton has a 2.08 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 4 earned runs in 17.1 innings pitched.
Meanwhile, Civale has a 4.79 ERA in four July starts, giving up 15 earned runs in 20.2 innings pitched.
The Cubs are 27-24 on the road. The White Sox are 22-29 at home.
7:15 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Boston Red Sox (-145, 8.5)
The Dodgers (61-43) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-2, cashing as -105 road dogs.
In tonight’s rematch, the Dodgers go with lefty Clayton Kershaw (4-1, 3.27 ERA) and the Red Sox (55-50) turn to fellow southpaw Garrett Crochet (11-4, 2.19 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -135 home favorite and Los Angeles a +115 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Red Sox, steaming Boston up from -135 to -145.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 53% of moneyline bets and 65% of moneyline dollars, indicating a relatively split public but also respected wiseguy action in their favor. At Circa, Boston is taking in 47% of moneyline bets but a hefty 94% of moneyline dollars, further evidence of the pros out in Vegas backing the home team with their ace on the bump.
Sweet spot home favorites -130 to -150 playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 61-39 (61%) with a 5% ROI this season. Short home favorites -150 or less off a loss playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 42-23 (65%) with a 13% ROI.
Crochet has a 1.35 ERA in three July starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 20 innings pitched. Boston is 8-1 in his last 9 starts.
Meanwhile, Kershaw has a 3.86 ERA in three July starts, giving up 7 earned runs in 16.1 innings pitched.
The Red Sox are hitting .260 against lefties (4th best in MLB) and .265 at home (4th). On the other hand, the Dodgers are hitting .250 against lefties (10th) and .243 on the road (14th).
