Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 16-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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7:10 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros (-150, 9)
The Astros (54-49) took last night’s series opener 5-0, cruising as -135 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Dodgers (62-43) hand the ball to lefty Justin Wrobleski (0-1, 4.40 ERA) and the Astros counter with righty Ronel Blanco (9-5, 2.75 ERA). This line opened with Houston listed as a -130 home favorite and Los Angeles a +120 road dog. Sharps have pounced on the Astros laying modest chalk at home, steaming Houston up from -130 to -150. The Astros are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and 72% of moneyline dollars, signaling modest public support but also respected sharp action in the form of a “low bets, higher dollars” bet split combined with a 20-cent steam move in their favor. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 95-56 (63%) with a 7% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous year are 88-51 (63%) with a 4% ROI. Houston is 21-9 (70%) with a 17% ROI as a favorite since June 1st, the 2nd best chalk record of any team over that time span. As a home favorite, the Astros are 13-4 (77%) with a 25% ROI since June 1st, the best in MLB. The Astros are hitting .264 against lefties this season, ranking 4th best in MLB against southpaws.
7:10 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Kansas City Royals (-130, 8)
The Royals (57-47) won last night’s series opener 6-0, cashing as -145 home favorites. In tonight’s rematch, the Cubs (49-56) turn to lefty Shota Imanaga (8-2, 2.86 ERA) and the Royals send out righty Seth Lugo (12-4, 2.38 ERA). This line opened with Kansas City listed as a -115 home favorite and Chicago a +105 road dog. Sharps seem to be thinking “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” and have laid the cheap chalk with the Royals at home, steaming Kansas City up from -115 to -130. The Royals are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites receiving 10-cents of steam or more in their favor against a team who missed the playoffs the previous year are 179-111 (62%) with a 1% ROI this season. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 95-56 (63%) with a 7% ROI. The Royals are 31-14 (69%) with a 16% ROI as a favorite, the 2nd best chalk team in MLB. Kansas City is 21-8 (72%) with a 17% ROI as a favorite against sub .500 teams. The Royals have the better bats, hitting .251 with 483 runs scored compared to the Cubs hitting .232 with 424 runs scored. Kansas City has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the better team who is expected to win. The Cubs are 22-31 on the road. The Royals are 36-20 at home. The Royals are hitting .258 against lefties, 8th best in MLB.
7:15 p.m. ET: Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals (-145, 8.5)
The Nationals (48-56) stole last night’s series opener 10-8 in extra innings, cashing as +145 road dogs. In tonight’s rematch, the Nationals start righty Jake Irvin (7-8, 3.44 ERA) and the Cardinals trot out fellow righty Kyle Gibson (7-3, 3.99 ERA). This line opened with St. Louis listed as a -130 home favorite and Washington a +120 road dog. Sharps are expecting the Cardinals to bounce back with a win and have steamed St. Louis up from -130 to -145. The Cardinals are receiving 72% of moneyline bets and 82% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in addition to a 15-cent steam move in their favor. Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 340-226 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season. Saturday favorites with a winning record are 95-56 (63%) with a 7% ROI. The Cardinals have the better offense, hitting .245 with 106 homers compared to the Nats hitting .237 with only 85 homers. Washington is 25-29 on the road. St. Louis is 26-23 at home. The Cardinals have value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team who is expected to win. St. Louis is hitting .254 against righties, 6th best in MLB. Washington is hitting .240 against righties, ranking 16th. The Cardinals are hitting .266 with a 4.14 ERA over their last ten games. The Nationals are hitting .239 with a 5.20 ERA over their last ten games.
