Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded slate of 15 MLB games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book out in August. >>Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
Top MLB Resources:
2:20 p.m. ET: St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs (-160, 11)
The Cubs (53-35) dominated yesterday’s series opener 11-3, cruising as -155 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Cardinals (47-42) hand the ball to lefty Matthew Liberatore (6-6, 3.70 ERA) and the Cubs turn to fellow southpaw Drew Pomeranz (2-1, 0.00 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -120 home favorite and St. Louis a +100 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down hard on the Cubs to stay hot at Wrigley, steaming Chicago up from -120 to -160.
At DraftKings, the Cubs are receiving 77% of moneyline bets and 81% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Chicago is taking in 55% of moneyline bets and 64% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a sharp “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites who won the opening game of a new series have gone 99-57 (54%) with a 2% ROI in the second game.
The Cubs are 43-18 (71%) with a 14% ROI as a favorite, the best chalk team in MLB. Chicago is 27-11 (71%) with a 10% ROI as a home favorite. If the Cubs are a home favorite with at least 10-cents of steam in their favor they improve to 20-5 (80%) with a 21% ROI.
Chicago has the more explosive bats, hitting 133 homers and scoring 475 runs compared to St. Louis hitting 88 homers and scoring 406 runs.
Liberatore posted a 5.14 ERA in five June starts, allowing 16 earned runs in 28 innings pitched.
Chicago is 29-15 at home. St. Louis is 21-25 on the road.
3:07 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays (-190, 9)
The Blue Jays (50-38) took yesterday’s series opener 4-3 in extra innings, cashing as -150 home favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Angels (43-44) send out righty Jack Kochanowicz (3-8, 5.44 ERA) and the Blue Jays start fellow righty Max Scherzer (0-0, 4.85 ERA).
This line opened with Toronto listed as a -165 home favorite and Los Angeles a +140 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Blue Jays, steaming Toronto up from -165 to -190.
At DraftKings, the Blue Jays are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Toronto is taking in 69% of moneyline bets but a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split and further evidence of the respected wiseguy wagers in Vegas backing the home chalk.
Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more in their direction are 126-67 (65%) with a 3% ROI this season. The Blue Jays are 19-9 (68%) with a 15% ROI as a home favorite.
Toronto has the more productive bats, hitting .258 with 405 runs scored compared to Los Angeles hitting .228 with 374 runs scored.
Kochanowicz posted a 6.31 ERA in six June starts, giving up 18 earned runs in 25.2 innings pitched. He is 1-5 with a 5.56 ERA on the road and 0-2 with a 6.27 ERA in the day.
The Blue Jays are 30-16 at home. The Angels are 23-24 on the road.
4:05 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Philadelphia Phillies (-180, 8.5)
The Reds (46-42) stole yesterday’s series opener 9-6, coming through as +130 road dogs.
In this late afternoon rematch, the Reds tap lefty Nick Lodolo (5-5, 3.52 ERA) and the Phillies (51-37) counter with fellow southpaw Ranger Suarez (7-2, 2.00 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -170 home favorite and Cincinnati a +150 road dog.
Wiseguys have sided with the Phillies to bounce back with a win, driving Philadelphia up from -170 to -180.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are taking in 81% of moneyline bets and 84% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Philadelphia is receiving only 67% of moneyline bets but a hefty 96% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy in favor of the Phillies.
Saturday home favorites off a loss with a winning record are 19-11 (63%) with a 4% ROI this season. Home favorites with a line move in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season are 186-92 (67%) with a 6% ROI.
The Phillies are 25-12 (68%) with a 6% ROI as a home favorite and 21-15 (58%) with a 4% ROI following a loss.
Suarez posted a 1.30 ERA in six June starts, giving up only 6 earned runs in 41.2 innings pitched. On the other hand, Lodolo posted a 4.68 ERA in five June starts, allowing 13 earned runs in 25 innings pitched.
The Phillies are hitting .277 at home (1st in MLB) and .259 against lefties (7th). Conversely, the Reds are hitting .247 on the road (12th) and .223 (25th) against lefties.
Philadelphia is 28-16 at home. Cincinnati is 22-23 on the road.
