Today the weekend kicks off with a loaded 15-game MLB slate. You can track the latest odds and betting percentages for every matchup using our VSiN Betting Splits, which come directly from DraftKings and are updated every 10-minutes.
In the meantime, let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of games today.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins (-135, 7.5)
The Astros (46-42) won Friday night’s series opener 13-12, cashing as +130 road dogs. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Astros start righty Hunter Brown (6-5, 4.07 ERA) and the Twins (49-39) counter with fellow righty Joe Ryan (5-5, 3.21 ERA). This line opened with Minnesota listed as a -115 home favorite and Houston a +105 road dog. The public is split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even 50/50 moneyline bet split we’ve seen the line shoot up towards Minnesota -115 to -135. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the tickets are even. So, we know based upon the 20-cent adjustment that sharps have gotten down on Minnesota to bounce back with a win laying short chalk at home. The Twins have value as a non-division favorite and correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to benefit and come from the better team who is favored to win. The Twins also have buy-low value as a favorite off a loss. Minnesota is 25-18 at home. Houston is 22-23 on the road. Brown has a 4.91 ERA on the road compared to 3.44 on the road. The Twins are hitting .295 over their last ten games.
2:20 p.m. ET: Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs (-150, 8.5)
The Cubs (41-48) took last night’s Interleague series opener 5-1, taking care of business as -190 home favorites. In this afternoon’s rematch, the Angels (36-51) hand the ball to lefty Tyler Anderson (7-8, 3.03 ERA) and the Cubs turn to righty Kyle Hendricks (1-6, 7.48 ERA). This line opened with Chicago listed as a -140 home favorite and Los Angeles a +130 road dog. Sharps have laid the modest chalk with the Cubs at home, steaming Chicago up from -140 to -150. The Cubs are receiving roughly 75% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating both Pro and Joe support in addition to a 10-cent steam move in their favor. Chicago has value as an Interleague favorite off a win, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the better team carrying momentum who is expected to win. Hendricks posted a 3.60 ERA in six June starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 25 innings pitched. Chicago is 24-20 at home. Los Angeles is 18-25 on the road. The Cubs are -22 in run differential. The Angels are -80.
4:15 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers (-105, 8.5)
The Dodgers (54-35) won last night’s series opener 8-5, cashing as -200 home favorites. In this late afternoon rematch, the Brewers (52-37) turn to righty Freddy Peralta (6-4, 3.83 ERA) and the Dodgers go with lefty James Paxton (7-2, 4.28 ERA). This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a -115 home favorite and Milwaukee a +105 road dog. The public can’t believe the mighty Dodgers are laying such a short price at home and they’re rushing to the window to back Los Angeles. However, despite receiving 74% of moneyline bets we’ve seen the Dodgers fall from -115 to -105. In other words, smart money has come down on the Brewers (+105 to -105) and moved this game to a virtual pick’em. Milwaukee is only receiving 26% of moneyline bets but 34% of moneyline dollars, a notable sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. The Brewers are 5-1 in Peralta’s last six starts. He has a 3.49 ERA on the road compared to 4.20 at home. Paxton posted a 6.46 ERA in five June starts, allowing 17 earned runs in 23.2 innings pitched.
