Today we kick off the weekend with a loaded 15-game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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4:05 p.m. ET: Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies (-175, 8.5)
The Phillies (40-29) dominated last night’s Interleague series opener 8-0, cruising as a -110 home pick’em.
In tonight’s rematch, the Blue Jays (38-31) send out righty Bowden Francis (2-8, 6.12 ERA) and the Phillies go with lefty Cristopher Sanchez (5-2, 3.10 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -165 home favorite and Toronto a +150 road dog.
Sharps aren’t scared off by the pricey chalk and are riding the hot hand, steaming the Phillies up from -165 to -175. Some shops are even creeping past -180.
At DraftKings, Philadelphia is receiving 81% of moneyline bets and 87% of moneyline dollars, a heavy one-way Pro and Joe “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the home chalk.
The Phillies have betting system value as an Interleague favorite, with the lack of familiarity benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
Philadelphia is hitting .269 at home, fourth best in MLB. Toronto is hitting .243 on the road (15th).
Francis has an 18.00 ERA in two June starts, giving up 10 earned runs in only 5 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Sanchez has a 2.08 ERA in two June starts, allowing only 3 earned runs in 13 innings pitched. Philadelphia is 10-3 in Sanchez’s 13 starts this season.
Philadelphia is 22-13 at home. Toronto is 16-18 on the road.
7:15 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Arizona Diamondbacks (-160, 9.5)
The Diamondbacks (35-34) took last night’s series opener 5-1, cashing as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Padres (38-30) tap righty Ryan Bergert (1-0, 1.26 ERA) and the Diamondbacks start fellow righty Zac Gallen (4-8, 5.15 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -140 home favorite and San Diego a +120 road dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Diamondbacks laying modest chalk at home, driving the Snakes up from -140 to -160.
At Circa, Arizona is only taking in 45% of moneyline bets but a hefty 84% of moneyline dollars, a massive sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers in Vegas backing the home team.
The Diamondbacks have the better bats, hitting .255 with 100 homers and 351 runs scored compared to the Padres hitting .246 with 57 homers and 280 runs scored.
Arizona is hitting .263 at home (7th best in MLB) and .260 against righties (3rd). San Diego is hitting .244 on the road (13th) and .253 against righties (13th).
9:40 p.m. ET: Cleveland Guardians at Seattle Mariners (-130, 7)
The Mariners (34-34) won last night’s series opener 7-2, taking care of business as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Guardians (35-33) hand the ball to righty Tanner Bibee (4-6, 3.81 ERA) and the Mariners counter with fellow righty George Kirby (1-3, 6.53 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -125 home favorite and Cleveland a +105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Mariners laying short chalk at home, driving Seattle up from -125 to -130. Some shops are even inching toward -135.
At Circa, the Mariners are receiving 67% of moneyline bets but a whopping 87% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet split and further evidence of the bigger, more respected wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing the home team.
Seattle has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Mariners also have betting system value as a non-division favorite, with the lack of familiarity also benefiting the team who is expected to win.
Seattle has the better bats, hitting .244 with 89 homers and 298 runs scored compared to the Guardians hitting .233 with 71 homers and 267 runs scored.
Bibee is 3-4 with a 4.99 ERA on the road compared to 1-2 with a 2.50 ERA at home.
